Bitcoin’s attempts to secure $100,000 as a support level have been thwarted over the past six weeks by persistent selling activity. However, recent market trends indicate a shift in dynamics, setting the stage for a potential breakout.
A key factor to watch is Bitcoin’s short-term on-chain cost basis, which currently sits at $88,135. Bitcoin is trading at a 7% premium over this level, indicating optimism among new investors. If prices stabilize above the STH cost basis, it will strengthen the bullish sentiment.
On the other hand, if prices fall below this threshold, it could signal hesitation among short-term holders, potentially leading to broader market corrections.
Another crucial aspect is the macro momentum indicators, which highlight Bitcoin’s potential for recovery. Realized profits have dropped to a three-month low, indicating a decline in selling pressure. This reduced activity suggests that investors are choosing to hold rather than exit, indicating diminishing bearish sentiment.
The drop in realized profits provides an opportunity for Bitcoin to regain momentum. With fewer sellers in the market, buying pressure could take precedence, paving the way for sustained recovery. Such a shift would give Bitcoin the breathing room it needs to target key resistance levels.
Currently, Bitcoin’s price action is encountering resistance at $95,668. A failure to breach this level could lead to a pullback, with support situated at $93,625. If this support is lost, the price may drop further to $92,005, invalidating the bullish outlook and delaying recovery efforts.
