比特幣（BTC）價格下跌7％，清算1.58億美元

比特幣（BTC）下跌7％的價格從3月26日的88060美元下跌至3月29日的82036美元，並導致了1.58億美元的長期清算。

Bitcoin's (BTC) 7% decline saw the price drop from $88,060 on March 26 to $82,036 on March 29 and led to $158 million in long liquidations. This drop was particularly concerning for bulls, as gold surged to a record high at the same time, undermining Bitcoin’s “digital gold” narrative.

比特幣（BTC）下跌7％的價格從3月26日的88,060美元下降到3月29日的82,036美元，並導致了1.58億美元的長期清算。對於公牛隊來說，這種下降尤其令人擔憂，因為黃金同時飆升至創紀錄的高位，這破壞了比特幣的“數字黃金”敘事。

However, many experts argue that a Bitcoin rally is imminent as multiple governments take steps to avert an economic crisis.

但是，許多專家認為，由於多個政府採取步驟避免經濟危機，比特幣集會即將出現。

The ongoing global trade war and spending cuts by the US government are considered temporary setbacks. An apparent silver lining is the expectation that additional liquidity is expected to flow into the markets, which could boost risk-on assets. Analysts believe Bitcoin is well-positioned to benefit from this broader macroeconomic shift.

美國政府正在進行的全球貿易戰和支出削減被認為是暫時的挫折。明顯的一線希望是預計有望額外的流動性流入市場，這可能會增加風險資產。分析師認為，比特幣的位置良好，可以從這種更廣泛的宏觀經濟轉變中受益。

Take, for example, Mihaimihale, an X social platform user who argued that tax cuts and lower interest rates are necessary to “kickstart” the economy, particularly since the previous year’s growth was “propped up” by government spending, which proved unsustainable.

以X社會平台用戶Mihaimihale為例，他認為削減稅收和較低的利率是“啟動”經濟的必要條件，尤其是自從上一年的增長被政府支出“支持”以來，事實證明這是不可持續的。

The less favorable macroeconomic environment pushed gold to a record high of $3,087 on March 28, while the US dollar weakened against a basket of foreign currencies, with the DXY Index dropping to 104 from 107.40 a month earlier.

3月28日，宏觀經濟環境不太有利的宏觀經濟環境將黃金推向了創紀錄的3,087美元，而美元對一籃子外幣卻削弱了，DXY指數從一個月前的107.40下降到104。

Additionally, the $93 million in net outflows from spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) on March 28 further weighed on sentiment, as traders acknowledged that even institutional investors are susceptible to selling amid rising recession risks.

此外，3月28日，來自現貨比特幣交易所交易基金（ETF）的9300萬美元的淨流出進一步承受了情緒，因為交易者承認，即使是機構投資者也很容易出售衰退風險的上升。

US inflation slows amid economic recession fears

在經濟衰退的恐懼中，美國通貨膨脹率放緩

The market currently assigns a 50% probability that the US Federal Reserve will cut interest rates to 4% or lower by July 30, up from 46% a month earlier, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

根據CME FedWatch工具，該市場目前分配了50％的概率，即到7月30日，美國美聯儲將利率降低到4％或降低，高於一個月前的46％。

Implied rates for Fed Funds on July 30. Source: CME FedWatch

7月30日，美聯儲資金的隱含費率。資料來源：CME FedWatch

The crypto market is presently in a “withdrawal phase,” according to Alexandre Vasarhelyi, the founding partner at B2V Crypto. Vasarhelyi noted that recent major announcements, such as the US strategic Bitcoin reserve executive order mark progress in the metric that matters the most: adoption.

B2V Crypto的創始合作夥伴Alexandre Vasarhelyi表示，加密貨幣市場目前處於“退出階段”。 Vasarhelyi指出，最近的主要公告，例如美國戰略比特幣儲備金執行訂單Mark Mark Mark Mark在指標中最重要的是：採用。

RWA tokenization is a promising trend, but its impact remains limited. “BlackRock’s billion-dollar BUIDL fund is a step forward, but it’s insignificant compared to the $100 trillion bond market.”

RWA令牌化是一個有希望的趨勢，但其影響仍然有限。 “貝萊德（BlackRock）十億美元的Buidl基金是向前邁出的一步，但與100萬億美元的債券市場相比，它微不足道。”

Gold decouples from stocks, bonds and Bitcoin

股票，債券和比特幣的金牌

Experienced traders view a 10% stock market correction as routine. However, some anticipate a decline in “policy uncertainty” by early April, which would reduce the likelihood of a recession or bear market.

經驗豐富的貿易商將10％的股票市場更正視為常規。但是，有些人預計到4月初，“政策不確定性”會下降，這將降低衰退或熊市的可能性。

Experienced traders view a 10% stock market correction as routine. However, some anticipate a decline in “policy uncertainty” by early April, which would reduce the likelihood of a recession or bear market.

經驗豐富的貿易商將10％的股票市場更正視為常規。但是，有些人預計到4月初，“政策不確定性”會下降，這將降低衰退或熊市的可能性。

According to Benzinga, citing 3F Research founder Warren Pies, the US administration is expected to soften its stance on tariffs, which may help stabilize investor sentiment.

據本辛加（Benzinga）援引3F研究創始人沃倫·派（Warren Pies）的說法，預計美國政府將軟化其對關稅的立場，這可能有助於穩定投資者的情緒。

This shift may help the S&P 500 stay above its March 13 low of 5,055, although market volatility is expected to persist as economic conditions continue to evolve.

這種轉變可能會幫助標準普爾500指數保持在3月13日低至5,055的低位，儘管隨著經濟狀況的不斷發展，市場波動預計將持續存在。

For some, the fact that gold decoupled from the stock market while Bitcoin succumbed to “extreme fear” is evidence that the digital gold thesis was flawed.

對於某些人來說，黃金與股票市場解耦的事實，而比特幣屈服於“極端恐懼”，這證明了數字黃金論文存在缺陷。

However, more experienced investors, including Vasarhelyi, argue that Bitcoin’s weak performance reflects its early-stage adoption rather than a failure of its fundamental qualities.

但是，包括Vasarhelyi在內的經驗豐富的投資者認為，比特幣的弱勢績效反映了其早期採用，而不是其基本品質的失敗。

“We’re still in the early stages of Bitcoin adoption. It’s not surprising to see some weakness in the face of broader market volatility,” Vasarhelyi remarked.

Vasarhelyi說：“我們仍處於比特幣採用的早期階段。面對更廣泛的市場波動，看到一些弱點也就不足為奇了。”

According to Benzinga, analysts view the recent Bitcoin correction as a reaction to recession fears and the temporary tariff war.

根據本辛加（Benzinga）的說法，分析師將最近的比特幣糾正視為對衰退的恐懼和臨時關稅戰爭的反應。

However, they anticipate that these factors will trigger expansionist measures from central banks, ultimately creating a favorable environment for risk-on assets, including Bitcoin.

但是，他們預計這些因素將引發中央銀行的擴張主義措施，最終為包括比特幣在內的風險資產創造一個有利的環境。