比特幣（BTC）價格分析：威科夫方法定義了累積或再分配場景，會是哪一種？

比特幣在 2025 年開始站穩了腳跟，一周內飆升了 3.50% 以上。 1 月 2 日期權合約到期後，比特幣價格見證了購買熱潮並達到 98,000 美元大關。

Bitcoin price started the week on a positive note with a gain of over 3.50% in a week. Following its options contract expiry on January 2, the BTC price saw buying and reached the $98k mark.

比特幣價格本週開局積極，一週內漲幅超過 3.50%。 1 月 2 日選擇權合約到期後，BTC 價格出現買盤並達到 9.8 萬美元大關。

However, recent trading patterns hinted at potential scenarios of either accumulation or redistribution. The Wyckoff method defined the same, shaping the market perspective significantly.

然而，最近的交易模式暗示了累積或重新分配的潛在情況。威科夫方法也做出了同樣的定義，大大塑造了市場前景。

At press time, the BTC price trades at $98,366 with an intraday rise of 0.78%. The fear and greed index has a reading of 72, which denotes ‘greed’ among investors. Typically, such a scenario represents that investors are optimistic and confident. This could further fuel rallies ahead.

截至發稿，BTC價格報98,366美元，盤中上漲0.78%。恐懼和貪婪指數的讀數為72，這表明投資者的「貪婪」。通常，這種情況代表投資者樂觀且充滿信心。這可能會進一步推動未來的反彈。

Following a retracement below the $100,000k mark, the BTC price took multiple retests around the $94,000k mark. Moreover, the token consolidated in a narrow range, indicating accumulation.

在回撤至 100,000,000 美元大關之後，BTC 價格在 94,000,000 美元大關附近進行了多次重新測試。此外，該代幣窄幅盤整，顯示有累積。

The ‘Spring’ and ‘Test’ stages of the Wyckoff scheme denoted this phase. In contrast, the BTC price stabilized after a decline. The redistribution scheme in the Wyckoff method displayed a lower peak at $98K. This raised the possibility of a bearish consequence.

威科夫方案的「春季」和「測試」階段表示這個階段。相比之下，BTC價格則先跌後穩定。 Wyckoff 方法中的再分配方案顯示出較低的峰值，為 98,000 美元。這增加了出現看跌後果的可能性。

Bitcoin Short-Term SOPR Analysis: Key Observations

比特幣短期 SOPR 分析：主要觀察結果

The relationship between long-term holders (LTHs) and short-term holders (STHs) is visible in the figure below.

長期持有者（LTH）和短期持有者（STH）之間的關係如下圖所示。

The market could move into a specific phase, mainly to peaks of particular cycles. If this happens, it is essential to understand the dynamics of Bitcoin supply transfer from LTHs to STHs.

市場可能會進入一個特定階段，主要是進入特定週期的峰值。如果發生這種情況，有必要了解比特幣供應從 LTH 轉移到 STH 的動態。

These observations suggested that, despite the selling by LTHs, the Bitcoin price had strong fundamentals. This happened as the STH demand was still high.

這些觀察結果表明，儘管 LTH 拋售，但比特幣價格的基本面仍然強勁。發生這種情況是因為 STH 需求仍然很高。

Analysis of STHs’ realized prices over various periods revealed that some levels acted as support. They backed the resistance levels as well.

對不同時期某物已實現價格的分析顯示，某些水平起到了支撐作用。他們也支持阻力位。

These include the realized prices, which average $41,000. This resulted in short-term gains of up to $85,000 and long-term gains of $60,000.

其中包括平均 41,000 美元的實際價格。這導致短期收益高達 85,000 美元，長期收益高達 60,000 美元。

Moreover, the STH SOPR stood at 1. That highlighted that Short-term holders (STH) were not profitable by selling BTC at current levels, implying that they had no intention to sell. It could further accelerate the market.

此外，STH SOPR 為 1。 這凸顯出短期持有者 (STH) 通過在當前水平出售 BTC 無法獲利，這意味著他們無意出售。它可以進一步加速市場發展。

Nevertheless, the declining SOPR post-recent rally suggested that the market may not yet be ready for another bull run. Instead, it may see further consolidation around the $100k mark.

然而，近期反彈後 SOPR 的下降表明市場可能尚未準備好迎接另一場牛市。相反，它可能會在 10 萬美元大關附近進一步盤整。

Technical Analysis: What Does the Price Action Say?

技術分析：價格走勢說明了什麼？

On the daily timeframe analysis, the Bitcoin price traded in a sustained uptrend and stood beyond the key EMAs. Over the weekend, it reclaimed the $98K mark and regained buying momentum.

從每日時間框架分析來看，比特幣價格呈現持續上漲趨勢，並超越了關鍵均線。週末，它重回 98,000 美元大關，並重新獲得購買動力。

The token has formed the higher highs and higher lows series. Furthermore, the BTC price is poised for the subsequent bullish leg formation. Once it returns above the $100k mark, further accumulation could pave the way for a rise toward the $110,000 mark in the coming sessions.

該代幣已形成更高的高點和更高的低點系列。此外，比特幣價格已為隨後的看漲腿形態做好了準備。一旦價格回到 10 萬美元大關上方，進一步吸籌可能會為未來幾個交易日上漲至 11 萬美元大關鋪平道路。

The momentum indicators RSI and MACD readings represented a bullish outlook. The Long/Short ratio stood at 0.986. This conveyed a higher long addition than shorts.

動量指標 RSI 和 MACD 讀數代表看漲前景。多空比率為 0.986。這傳達了比空頭更高的多頭附加價值。

The uptrend was sustained until the BTC price was above the $95K mark, and the ongoing rally could extend further. However, a drop below the zone could trigger a profit booking move toward the $90k mark.

上漲趨勢一直持續到 BTC 價格突破 9.5 萬美元大關，持續的漲勢可能會進一步延續。然而，跌破該區域可能會引發利潤向 9 萬美元大關移動。

This article is for informational purposes only and provides no financial, investment, or other advice. The author or any people mentioned in this article are not responsible for any financial loss that may occur from investing in or trading. Please do your research before making any financial decisions.

本文僅供參考，不提供任何財務、投資或其他建議。作者或本文提及的任何人對投資或交易可能產生的任何財務損失不承擔任何責任。在做出任何財務決定之前，請先進行研究。