比特幣[BTC]處於關鍵點。這個長期指標將決定下一個市場敘事。

比特幣[BTC]處於關鍵點。正如其最有說服力的長期指標達到歷史上重要水平一樣，市場發現自己屏住呼吸。

Bitcoin price is at a crucial crossroads as one of its most pertinent indicators approaches a historical level, leaving the crypto behemoth on the edge of a pivotal move.

比特幣的價格處於關鍵的十字路口，因為其最相關的指標之一接近歷史層面，使加密龐然大物處於關鍵舉動的邊緣。

The days ahead may decide if the recent price action will form the base of a new rally or the edge of a deeper slide.

未來的日子可能會決定最近的價格行動是否會構成新的集會的基礎或更深層次的幻燈片的邊緣。

What does the data show?

數據顯示什麼？

A helpful indicator for gauging the collective conviction of long-term Bitcoin holders is the long-term realized cap impulse.

衡量長期比特幣持有人的集體定罪的有用指標是長期實現的上限衝動。

This indicator assesses the momentum of realized capitalization—which tracks coins at their most recent transaction price—and integrates it with a factor that adjusts for long-term trends.

該指標評估已實現資本化的勢頭（以其最近的交易價格跟踪硬幣），並將其與調整長期趨勢的因素相結合。

Typically, when this impulse reaches its lower support zone or zone of accumulation, it coincides with major turning points in Bitcoin’s price chart.

通常，當這種衝動達到其較低的支撐區或積累區域時，它與比特幣價格圖中的主要轉折點相吻合。

At the time of writing, the impulse is approaching a level that previously heralded significant market recoveries in 2019 and late 2022. This pattern suggests that long-term holders are entering a critical decision window.

在撰寫本文時，衝動正在接近以前在2019年和2022年末預示著大量市場回收率的水平。這種模式表明，長期持有人正在進入關鍵的決策窗口。

At these instances, the lower support zone acted as a point of resilience, and its breakdown was never fully realized. Instead, the price recovered from this zone, signaling the persistence of buyers at key levels.

在這些情況下，較低的支撐區是一種韌性，其崩潰從未完全實現。取而代之的是，價格從該區域恢復了，標誌著買家在關鍵水平上的持久性。

This time, the fib support holds at a lower band, and a potential breakdown could have steeper implications.

這次，FIB支持在較低的頻段中保持，潛在的崩潰可能會產生更陡峭的含義。

Is it a support bounce or structural breakdown?

它是支持反彈還是結構崩潰？

The current technical setup presents a binary outcome.

當前的技術設置提供了二進制結果。

If Bitcoin manages a positive bounce from this support zone, it could signal that long-term holders are maintaining their positions despite recent volatility. This bounce would lay the groundwork for renewed accumulation and, ultimately, momentum toward higher price levels.

如果比特幣從該支持區域管理正反彈，則可能表明長期持有人儘管最近的波動性仍在保持其位置。這種反彈將為新的積累奠定基礎，並最終朝著更高的價格水平達到勢頭。

However, a breakdown at this level would signify a loss of confidence among the market’s most resilient participants—those who usually absorb selling pressure rather than add to it. Such a shift might trigger a more pronounced correction as the selling force increases.

但是，在此級別上發生故障將表示市場最有彈性的參與者之間的信心喪失，這些人通常會吸收銷售壓力而不是增加銷售壓力。隨著銷售力的增加，這種轉變可能會引發更明顯的校正。

Furthermore, considering the long-term impulse’s track record of anticipating macro reversals in alignment with key fib levels, its next movement could define the trajectory for the upcoming quarter.

此外，考慮到長期衝動的記錄是，預期宏觀逆轉與關鍵FIB水平保持一致，其下一個運動可以定義即將到來的季度的軌跡。

Bitcoin: Fear, greed, and an edge of a move

比特幣：恐懼，貪婪和移動邊緣

At the time of press, the fear and greed index stood at 45, indicating a cautiously neutral sentiment—leaning toward fear but still signaling an absence of capitulation. This aligns with the market’s current state, poised between uncertainty and sensitivity to upcoming price catalysts.

在新聞發布會時，恐懼和貪婪指數為45，表明存在謹慎的中性情緒 - 朝著恐懼傾向，但仍表明沒有投降。這與市場的當前狀態保持一致，這在不確定性和對即將到來的價格催化劑的敏感性之間有好處。

The crypto fear and greed index reading also aligns with the indecision visible on the long-term impulse chart, underscoring that Bitcoin is nearing a critical decision point that will ultimately determine its next leg of the market cycle.

加密恐懼和貪婪的指數閱讀也與長期衝動圖表中可見的猶豫不決保持一致，強調比特幣接近一個關鍵的決策點，最終將決定其下一個市場週期。

Typically, sentiment trails structural metrics, which indicates that the current calm could precede a steeper shift in one direction or the other. This shift will largely depend on whether long-term holders absorb this selling pressure or add to it during this pivotal moment.

通常，情感踪跡結構指標，這表明當前的平靜可以在一個方向或另一個方向上更陡峭的轉變之前。這種轉變在很大程度上取決於長期持有人是在這一關鍵時刻吸收銷售壓力還是增加了這種銷售壓力。