比特幣（BTC）市場參與者的定位是新鮮的BTC價格下跌，甚至可能形成新的多個月低點。

PCE週與3月的最後一次交易週相吻合，風險資產顯示出一定的樂觀跡象。

Bitcoin (BTC) price is heading into the last full trading week of Q1 2025 with a threat of new multi-month lows emerging as trader sentiment diverges from improving technicals.

比特幣（BTC）的價格正登上第1季度2025年第1季度的全部交易週，隨著交易者情緒與改善技術的不同，新的多個月低點的威脅都出現了。

PCE week coincides with the last full trading week of March, and risk assets are showing a hint of optimism as a four-week losing streak comes to an end for US stocks.

PCE週與3月的最後一次交易週相吻合，風險資產顯示出一種樂觀的跡象，因為為期四周的損失連勝即將結束美國股票。

When it comes to BTC price strength, RSI is increasingly signaling bullish continuation in several interesting ways.

當涉及到BTC的價格實力時，RSI越來越多地以幾種有趣的方式向看漲的延續表示。

Short-term Bitcoin holders are showing signs of serious unrealized losses, while stablecoin stocks on Binance hit record highs in what research hopes is a positive signal for investor confidence.

短期比特幣持有人表現出嚴重的未實現損失的跡象，而Binance的Stablecoin股票命中了記錄高點，這是對投資者信心的積極信號。

Bitcoin traders see downside reversal next

比特幣交易者看到下面的逆轉下一步

Bitcoin is nearing a rematch with two-week highs as the week gets underway, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows.

CoIntelegraph Markets Pro和TradingView顯示的數據顯示，隨著一周的進行，比特幣接近重賽，這是兩周高點。

Among traders, however, the mood remains cautious.

但是，在交易者中，情緒仍然謹慎。

Bulls have a lot to do in order to spark a reliable uptrend, they warn, and despite being up nearly 15% versus its multimonth lows from earlier this month, BTC/USD may well see a fresh drop.

公牛有很多事情要做，以激發可靠的上升趨勢。

“Market sentiment has been restored after hitting the short liquidations at $87.1k. Now, it could be a good opportunity for the MM to shake out the market again,” popular trader CrypNuevo wrote in his latest X analysis.

流行的Trader Crypnuevo在他的最新X分析中寫道：“在以87.1k美元的價格達到短暫的清算後，市場情緒已得到恢復。現在，MM再次擺脫市場可能是一個很好的機會。”

BTC liquidity chart. Source: CrypNuevo/X

BTC流動性圖。資料來源：Crypnuevo/X

CrypNuevo was looking lower at times, with downside liquidity nearer $80,000 a potentially lucrative target that he advised followers to “mind.”

Crypnuevo有時看上去較低，下行流動性接近80,000美元，這是他建議追隨者“思想”的潛在利潤豐厚的目標。

BTC/USDT 1-hour chart. Source: CrypNuevo/X

BTC/USDT 1小時圖表。資料來源：Crypnuevo/X

Fellow trading account HTL-NL described the scenario on shorter timeframes as “not looking good” for bulls, eyeing $90,000 as a ceiling before a reversal kicks in.

貿易帳戶HTL-NL的其他交易帳戶將較短的時間範圍的方案描述為“對公牛的看法不好”，在逆轉開始之前，將90,000美元視為上限。

Even among its more ardent supporters, the specter of the mid-$70,000 ranges still lingers. Arguing that BTC/USD could yet advance to new all-time highs of $110,000, former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes predicts a 30% crash from there.

即使在更為熱心的支持者中，中期70,000美元的幽靈仍然存在。前Bitmex首席執行官Arthur Hayes認為BTC/USD仍可以提高到110,000美元的新歷史最高高點，預計從那裡將有30％的崩潰。

🚨 LATEST: BitMex co-founder Arthur Hayes predicts Bitcoin will hit $110k before retesting $76.5k, claiming Fed is switching from QT to QE for treasuries and dismisses tariff concerns, citing "transitory inflation." pic.twitter.com/VX3ORPyvii

🚨最新：Bitmex聯合創始人亞瑟·海斯（Arthur Hayes）預測，比特幣將達到11萬美元，然後重新測試$ 76.5K，聲稱美聯儲以“臨時通貨膨脹”為例，美聯儲將從QT轉換為QE，並駁回了關稅問題。 pic.twitter.com/vx3orpyvii

“Again I still think we go lower before we make a run back to 88-90k resistance retest,” trader Roman meanwhile added on short timeframes.

“再次，我仍然認為我們在回到88-90k阻力重新測試之前會降低，” Trader Roman在短時間內補充說。

Earlier, Cointelegraph reported on several key support trend lines in need of a reclaim as part of any BTC price recovery.

此前，Cointelegraph報導了需要回收的幾個關鍵支持趨勢線，這是任何BTC價格回收的一部分。

These included the 200-day simple and exponential moving averages, currently at $85,050 and $85,500, respectively.

其中包括200天簡單和指數的移動平均值，目前分別為85,050美元和85,500美元。

PCE week comes in the shadow of tariffs

PCE周有關稅的陰影

The last full trading week of Q1 2025 gets underway with a hint of relief for risk assets as US stocks end a four-week losing streak.

第1季度2025年第1季度的最後一個交易週，由於美國股票結束了為期四周的損失，因此對風險資產的緩解措施也有所緩解。

A wild ride for equities since the year began is finally coming to a close, and with it an even more volatile period for Bitcoin and crypto.

自一年開始以來的巨大競爭終於結束了，比特幣和加密貨幣的時期更加動盪。

That said, more surprises could come before the quarterly candle close.

也就是說，在季度蠟燭關閉之前，可能會有更多驚喜。

March 28 is the main date in traders’ diaries this week, hosting the February print of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index.

3月28日是本週交易者日記的主要日期，主持了2月份的美國個人消費支出（PCE）指數。

Known to be the Federal Reserve’s “preferred” inflation gauge, PCE came in below expectations last month, with the upcoming numbers broadly expected to be identical.

PCE眾所周知是美聯儲的“首選”通貨膨脹量表，上個月的預期低於預期，即將到來的數字將廣泛預期相同。

Citing the Fed’s own internal models, financial market research firm Bespoke saw positive developments for risk-on sentiment developing.

金融市場研究公司援引美聯儲自己的內部模式，為風險啟動情緒發展提供了積極的發展。

“The Fed's inflation model currently estimates that headline and core for both CPI and PCE will all have 2-handles by March,” it observed last week.

它在上週觀察到：“美聯儲的通貨膨脹模型目前估計，CPI和PCE的標題和核心都將在3月之前有2個手柄。”

Fed target rate probabilities for June FOMC meeting. Source: CME Group

FOMC會議的FED目標利率概率。資料來源：CME組

The latest estimates from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool meanwhile show market odds for interest rate cuts remaining at zero, with the June meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) as the likely timeframe for financial conditions to ease.

同時，CME Group的FedWatch工具的最新估計顯示，降低利率的市場賠率仍為零，聯邦公開市場委員會（FOMC）的6月會議可能是財務狀況的可能時間範圍。

The US government’s reciprocal tariff arrangement, due to go live on April 2, could temper any optimism.

美國政府將於4月2日上線，美國政府的互惠關稅安排可能會降低任何樂觀態度。

At a press conference following the latest FOMC meeting last week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell himself cited tariffs as a “driving factor” in increasing inflation expectations.

在上週最新的FOMC會議之後的新聞發布會上，美聯儲主席杰羅姆·鮑威爾（Jerome Powell）本人將關稅視為通貨膨脹期望的“驅動因素”。

“You may have seen that goods inflation moved up pretty significantly in the first two months of the year. Trying to track that back to actual tariff increases, given what was tariff and what was not, very, very challenging. So, some of it,” he said.

他說：“您可能已經看到，商品通貨膨脹在今年的頭兩個月都大大提高。考慮到關稅是什麼，而不是非常非常具有挑戰性的東西，試圖將其追溯到實際關稅增加。

RSI signals tease key BTC price breakouts

RSI信號取笑鑰匙BTC價格突破

When it comes to early bull market continuation signals,

當談到早期牛市延續信號時