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加密貨幣新聞文章

比特幣 (BTC) 觸及 109,000 美元以上的歷史新高,將隱含和實際波動率推至 8 月高點

2025/01/20 19:35

已實現波動率是比特幣過去 30 天的歷史價格波動。 Deribit 的比特幣波動率指數 (BVOL) 觸及 67。比特幣 Volmex 隱含波動率指數 (BVIV) 觸及 71 的高點。

比特幣 (BTC) 觸及 109,000 美元以上的歷史新高,將隱含和實際波動率推至 8 月高點

Bitcoin (BTC) hit a record-high above $109,000 on Monday, fueled by expectations of a strategic bitcoin reserve announcement by President-elect Donald Trump.

受當選總統唐納德·川普宣布戰略性比特幣儲備的預期推動,比特幣 (BTC) 週一觸及 109,000 美元以上的歷史新高。

The record-breaking rally was accompanied by a surge in both implied volatility and realized volatility, reaching their highest levels since August's yen carry trade unwind, according to traders and market data.

交易員和市場數據顯示,創紀錄的漲勢伴隨著隱含波動率和實際波動率的飆升,達到自 8 月日圓套利交易平倉以來的最高水準。

Realized volatility, measured by the historical price fluctuations of bitcoin over the past 30 days, hit 67 on the Bitcoin Volatility Index (BVOL) on Deribit. Meanwhile, the Bitcoin Volmex Implied Volatility index (BVIV) reached a high of 71. Implied volatility, derived from options pricing, gauges the market's expectation for future price fluctuations. Both indexes were up about 2% on the day.

Deribit 上的比特幣波動率指數 (BVOL) 的實際波動率(以過去 30 天的比特幣歷史價格波動來衡量)達到了 67。同時,比特幣 Volmex 隱含波動率指數 (BVIV) 達到 71 的高點。當天,兩個指數均上漲約 2%。

"The positive correlation between bitcoin's price and implied volatility remains intact. It’s a sign traders are chasing options, particularly calls, as risk reversals show calls are trading at a premium relative to puts that offer downside protection," said Omkar Godbole, a markets analyst and managing editor of markets at CoinDesk.

市場分析師Omkar Godbole 表示:「比特幣價格與隱含波動率之間的正相關性仍然完好無損。這表明交易者正在追逐選擇權,尤其是看漲期權,因為風險逆轉表明,看漲期權的交易價格相對於提供下行保護的看跌期權而言溢價。

In a further indication of bullish sentiment, shorter-duration calls are priced higher than longer-duration ones, a rare occurrence in the bitcoin options market. "This is a sign of strong short-term bullish sentiment," said Andre Dragosch, European head of research at Bitwise.

短期看漲期權的價格高於長期看漲期權的價格,這在比特幣期權市場上很少見,這進一步表明了看漲情緒。 Bitwise 歐洲研究主管 Andre Dragosch 表示:“這是短期看漲情緒強勁的跡象。”

Moreover, open interest in options has increased by 44,000 BTC, reflecting heightened speculative activity, Dragosch added.

Dragosch 補充道,此外,選擇未平倉合約增加了 44,000 BTC,反映出投機活動加劇。

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