比特幣和山寨幣在聖誕節前暴跌——這是一次修正還是更多？

加密貨幣市場的聖誕節前氣氛突然被打亂：主要貨幣比特幣陷入螺旋式下跌，交易量急劇下降

Bitcoin fell short of the $100,000 mark on Friday, while altcoins like Ethereum, Solana and Dogecoin dropped by 10 percent or more.

比特幣週五跌破 10 萬美元大關，而以太幣、Solana 和狗狗幣等山寨幣則下跌 10% 或更多。

Is this a correction after weeks of rallying or more?

這是經過數週或更長時間的上漲之後的修正嗎？

The pre-Christmas mood on the crypto markets was abruptly disrupted: Bitcoin, the leading currency, fell into a downward spiral and was trading at around $95,000 on Friday morning – the series of new all-time highs of over $100,000 thus ended.

聖誕節前加密貨幣市場的氣氛突然被打亂：主要貨幣比特幣陷入螺旋式下跌，週五上午交易價格約為 95,000 美元——一系列超過 100,000 美元的歷史新高就此結束。

Since yesterday evening, altcoins also fell one after the other, Ethereum (ETH) slipped 10 percent into the red, Solana (SOL) 14 percent, Dogecoin was down 17 percent on the day and Cardano (ADA) 14 percent.

自昨天晚上以來，山寨幣也紛紛下跌，以太幣（ETH）當天下跌10%，Solana（SOL）下跌14%，狗狗幣（Dogecoin）當天下跌17%，卡爾達諾（ADA）下跌14%。

Several reasons could have caused the surprising downturn:

有幾個原因可能導致了令人驚訝的低迷：

– The decision of the US Federal Reserve to cut the key interest rate by 0.25 percent was expected and such interest rate cuts actually support the price curve of Bitcoin. But the Fed also indicated that inflation in the US remains a problem and that the key interest rate will not be reduced quickly in 2025. This macroeconomic outlook also pushed traditional stock markets slightly into the red, from which Bitcoin and Co. can rarely decouple.

– 聯準會決定將關鍵利率下調0.25%是預料之中的，這樣的降息實際上支撐了比特幣的價格曲線。但聯準會也表示，美國的通膨仍然是個問題，2025年關鍵利率不會很快下調。

– US altcoins Solana, Cardano and Dogecoin, Elon Musk’s favorite, had gained massively after Donald Trump’s election victory – profit-taking and possible overvaluation of ADA, SOL, DOGE and others are part of the puzzle.

– 伊隆馬斯克最喜歡的美國山寨幣 Solana、Cardano 和 Dogecoin 在唐納德川普當選後大幅上漲 – ADA、SOL、DOGE 等的獲利了結和可能的高估是謎題的一部分。

– Bitcoin ETFs in the US had a terrible day on Thursday. Data from SoSo shows that the streak of 15 trading days of uninterrupted capital inflow for Bitcoin ETFs came to an abrupt end. $680 million was withdrawn from Bitcoin ETFs in one day – a negative record since their debut in January.

– 美國的比特幣 ETF 週四經歷了糟糕的一天。 SoSo的數據顯示，比特幣ETF連續15個交易日資金不間斷流入的局面戛然而止。比特幣 ETF 一天內撤資 6.8 億美元，這是自 1 月推出以來的負記錄。

– MicroStrategy’s aggressive strategy for Bitcoin purchases raises concerns about whether the MSTR share is still fairly valued or turns out to be a systemic risk for the BTC price development.

– MicroStrategy 積極的比特幣購買策略引發了人們的擔憂，即 MSTR 股票的估值是否仍然合理，或者是否會成為 BTC 價格發展的系統性風險。

– There are also considerable doubts as to whether the US government Bitcoin reserve promised by Donald Trump will become a reality – this plan, along with the Bitcoin ETFs, is considered to be the trigger for the recent Bitcoin boom.

– 對於唐納德·川普承諾的美國政府比特幣儲備是否會成為現實也存在相當大的疑問 – 這一計劃與比特幣 ETF 一起被認為是近期比特幣熱潮的觸發因素。

Conclusion: Difficult end of the year for Bitcoin and Co. – Crash feared

結論：比特幣及其公司將迎來艱難的年底——擔心崩盤

When analyzing the daily losses in Bitcoin’s price, it seems like a confluence of several factors got the ball rolling. The fact that altcoins from Ethereum to Solana to Dogecoin and Cardano are collapsing even more is no surprise, but rather underlines the status of BTC as a leading crypto currency.

在分析比特幣價格的每日損失時，似乎是多個因素共同作用的結果。從以太坊、Solana、狗狗幣和卡爾達諾等山寨幣的崩潰幅度更大這一事實並不令人意外，而是凸顯了 BTC 作為領先加密貨幣的地位。

By the way, we had an infographic in our program just yesterday that revolves around possible warning signs of a Bitcoin crash.

順便說一句，昨天我們的程式中有一個資訊圖，圍繞著比特幣崩盤的可能警告信號。

For the moment, investors and other market participants hope that the relative Bitcoin weakness can be interpreted as a price correction and not a sign of a negative series. But the period between Christmas and New Year is complicated, with traditional exchanges for Bitcoin ETFs being closed on many days. Nervousness today can turn into panic tomorrow – long-term Bitcoin investors are familiar with these dynamics and volatility. But they can also console themselves with the fact that Bitcoin has always returned stronger from such situations and that altcoins are riskier than BTC anyway.

目前，投資者和其他市場參與者希望比特幣的相對疲軟可以被解釋為價格調整，而不是負面序列的跡象。但聖誕節和新年之間的時期很複雜，傳統的比特幣 ETF 交易所有很多天都關閉。今天的緊張明天可能會變成恐慌——長期比特幣投資者熟悉這些動態和波動性。但他們也可以用這樣的事實來安慰自己：比特幣總是從這種情況中恢復得更強勁，而且山寨幣無論如何都比比特幣風險更大。

This article was first published on BlockBuilders. A third-party contributor translated and adapted it from the original article for readers of Born2Invest. In case of discrepancy, the original article will prevail.

本文首次發表在 BlockBuilders 上。第三方貢獻者根據原始文章翻譯並改編了該文章，供 Born2Invest 的讀者使用。如有差異，以原文為準。

This article may contain forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are generally identified by the words “believe,” “project,” “estimate,” “become,” “plan,” “will,” and similar expressions. These forward-looking statements involve known and unknown risks as well as uncertainties, including those discussed in the following cautionary statements and elsewhere in this article and on this site. Although the Company may believe that its expectations are based on reasonable assumptions, the actual results that the Company may achieve may differ materially from any forward-looking statements, which reflect the opinions of the management of the Company only as of the date hereof.

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