本文是根據Wanwu Island共享會議的Waterdrip Capital創始人Dashan發表的主題演講的。

宏觀環境正在惡化 - 危機正在形成新訂單

This article is compiled from the keynote speech given by Dashan, founder of Waterdrip Capital, at the Wanwu Island Sharing Session.

本文是根據Wanwu Island共享會議的Waterdrip Capital創始人Dashan發表的主題演講的。

As the global economic landscape undergoes rapid transformation, entrepreneurs in the Web3 space are charting new courses and exploring innovative models for sustainable growth. In this context, Dashan, founder of Waterdrip Capital, recently shared his insights on the current market environment, entrepreneurial opportunities, and the future trends of capital integration with a focus on crypto startups.

隨著全球經濟格局經歷快速的轉型，Web3領域的企業家正在繪製新課程並探索創新的可持續增長模型。在這種情況下，水力資本的創始人達珊（Dashan）最近分享了他對當前市場環境，企業家機會以及資本整合趨勢的見解，重點是加密初創公司。

Here are some highlights from his speech:

這是他演講中的一些亮點：

1. Macro Environment Deterioration - Crisis Forming New Order

1。宏觀環境惡化 - 危機形成新秩序

Since Trump returned to the White House, a series of unexpected economic and political measures have continued to turmoil the global market. Among them, one of the measures that caused the greatest shock was the escalation of tariff policies: from April 5, 2025, the United States will impose a unified 10% “base tariff” on all imported goods, and impose higher “reciprocal tariffs” on 60 countries including China and Vietnam (the tariff on China was once raised to 125%). In the short term, Trump’s tariff stick caused huge fluctuations in the global market: U.S. bonds suffered a sell-off, and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield soared to more than 4.5%, the largest single-week increase in 20 years; U.S. stocks fluctuated violently, once approaching a circuit breaker; the U.S. dollar index continued to fall and hit the largest daily decline in several years. Although the United States subsequently announced that it would suspend the imposition of new tariffs on some allied countries in exchange for a respite, investors are still full of worries about future uncertainties, and the global financial system seems to have entered a “chaotic era.”

自從特朗普返回白宮以來，一系列意想不到的經濟和政治措施繼續在全球市場上動盪。其中，引起最大震驚的措施之一是關稅政策的升級：從2025年4月5日起，美國將對所有進口商品施加統一的10％“基本關稅”，並將更高的“相互關稅”對包括中國和越南在內的60個國家徵收（中國的關稅曾經提高到125％）。在短期內，特朗普的關稅棒在全球市場上引起了巨大的波動：美國債券遭受了拋售，美國10年的美國財政收益率飆升至4.5％以上，這是20年來最大的單週；美國庫存猛烈波動，一旦接近斷路器；美元指數繼續下降，幾年來每日下降最大。儘管美國隨後宣布，它將中止對一些盟國的新關稅以換取喘息的機會，但投資者仍然對未來的不確定性感到擔憂，而全球金融體系似乎已經進入了“混亂的時代”。

The old international economic system centered on the United States established after World War II (such as the Bretton Woods system and the WTO framework) is facing the risk of collapse: the rise of emerging economies has weakened the relative advantages of the United States, the huge debts and fiscal deficits accumulated by the United States over a long period of time have continuously eroded the credibility of the US dollar, and the proportion of the US dollar in global foreign exchange reserves has declined. In particular, China's rapid development since joining the WTO has gradually approached or even surpassed the United States in many scientific and technological fields, causing deep anxiety among the American elite. The breakthroughs made by Chinese companies such as Huawei in key technologies such as 5G chip design and communication base stations are a signal that alerts the United States: the once high-tech generation gap has been rapidly narrowed, and the traditional advantages of the United States in the manufacturing field are in jeopardy, while the younger generation of Americans are more engaged in finance and art and are no longer willing to engage in manufacturing. This series of changes means that the old order on which the United States relies for hegemony is loosening.

第二次世界大戰後建立的美國的舊國際經濟體系（例如布雷頓伍茲體系和WTO框架）正面臨著崩潰的風險：新興經濟體的興起削弱了美國的相對優勢，美國在持續不斷的交換中，美國在整體上積累了巨大的債務和財政赤字。儲備金下降了。特別是，自加入世貿組織以來，中國的迅速發展已逐漸接近甚至超過許多科學和技術領域的美國，在美國精英中引起了深切的焦慮。中國公司（例如華為）在5G芯片設計和通信基站等關鍵技術中所取得的突破是一種向美國發出警報的信號：曾經高科技的一代差距已經迅速縮小，美國在製造業領域的傳統優勢在危險領域，而美國人則不再從事金融和藝術品，並且不再從事融資和藝術品。這一系列的變化意味著，美國依靠霸權的舊秩序正在放鬆。

Against this backdrop, U.S. decision-makers have begun to plan to build a new trade and financial order to maintain its global dominance. The Trump administration’s strategic goal is not only to negotiate better terms in trade negotiations, but also to try to “start anew” – to re-establish the central position of the United States by formulating a new rules system. This has two intentions: one is to strike major competitors and weaken the momentum of China and other countries to rise rapidly by taking advantage of the existing globalization dividends; the other is to seek new value anchors to provide new support for the shaken dollar credit and global trade. Under this idea, the traditional dollar credit needs to introduce stronger endorsements, and the United States has begun to turn its attention to assets such as gold and Bitcoin, hoping to rebuild the trust foundation of the global financial system.

在這種背景下，美國決策者已經開始計劃建立新的貿易和財務秩序，以保持其全球統治地位。特朗普政府的戰略目標不僅是在貿易談判中談判更好的條件，而且是試圖“重新開始”，以通過制定新規則制度來重新建立美國的中心地位。這有兩個意圖：一種是罷工主要競爭對手，並削弱中國和其他國家的勢頭，以利用現有的全球化股息來迅速上升。另一個是尋求新的價值錨點，以為動搖的美元信貸和全球貿易提供新的支持。在這個想法下，傳統的美元信貸需要引入更強有力的認可，美國已經開始將其關注轉移到諸如黃金和比特幣之類的資產上，希望重建全球金融體系的信任基礎。

It is worth noting that since Trump took office, the US government's attitude toward the field of cryptocurrency has undergone a major change. Soon after taking office, Trump publicly expressed his concern about the development of virtual currencies, reversing his previous critical stance on Bitcoin. Some forces within the Republican Party and some state governments have also gradually embraced Bitcoin in recent years, viewing it as “digital gold” to hedge against the risk of the US dollar. It can be said that the United States is making pre-planning for a potential new financial order and incorporating Bitcoin into its national strategic vision.

值得注意的是，自從特朗普上任以來，美國政府對加密貨幣領域的態度發生了重大變化。上任後不久，特朗普公開表示關注虛擬貨幣的發展，扭轉了他以前對比特幣的批判立場。近年來，共和黨和一些州政府內部的一些部隊也逐漸接受了比特幣，將其視為“數字黃金”，以對沖美元的風險。可以說，美國正在為潛在的新金融秩序進行預先計劃，並將比特幣納入其國家戰略願景中。

1.1 Finance Begins to Enter an Era of Chaos

1.1財務開始進入混亂時代

Since Trump returned to the White House, a series of unexpected economic and political measures have continued to turmoil the global market. Among them, one of the measures that caused the greatest shock was the escalation of tariff policies: from April 5, 2025, the United States will impose a unified 10% “base tariff” on all imported goods, and impose higher “reciprocal tariffs” on 60 countries including China and Vietnam (the tariff on China was once raised to 125%). In the short term, Trump’s tariff stick caused

自從特朗普返回白宮以來，一系列意想不到的經濟和政治措施繼續在全球市場上動盪。其中，引起最大震驚的措施之一是關稅政策的升級：從2025年4月5日起，美國將對所有進口商品施加統一的10％“基本關稅”，並將更高的“相互關稅”對包括中國和越南在內的60個國家徵收（中國的關稅曾經提高到125％）。在短期內，特朗普的關稅棒造成了