山寨幣市場正在升溫，但它能引發新一輪牛市嗎？

根據最近的指標，山寨幣在幣安上獲得了巨大的吸引力。僅在 1 月份，這一加密貨幣類別的主導地位就創下了 78% 的新高，比前幾個月增長了 11%。

Key Takeaways

重點

Altcoins are gaining a lot of ground on Binance, with recent metrics showing a new high.

山寨幣在幣安上取得了很大進展，最近的指標顯示出新高。

In January alone, altcoins accounted for 78% of total trading volume on the exchange.

光是 1 月份，山寨幣就佔該交易所總交易量的 78%。

This marks an 11% increase from the previous months, showcasing a shift in investor interest.

這比前幾個月增長了 11%，顯示投資者興趣發生了轉變。

The development has also sparked speculation about an upcoming altcoin bull run.

這一事態發展也引發了人們對即將到來的山寨幣牛市的猜測。

Moreover, it highlights growing retail interest and confidence in the altcoin sector, which is bound to influence the market dynamics in the coming months.

此外，它凸顯了散戶對山寨幣產業的興趣和信心不斷增長，這必將影響未來幾個月的市場動態。

A Closer Look at Altcoin Trends

仔細觀察山寨幣趨勢

According to recent insights shared by CryptoQuant contributor Burakkesmeci, altcoin trading volumes on Binance have been steadily increasing since mid-2024.

根據 CryptoQuant 貢獻者 Burakkesmeci 分享的最新見解，自 2024 年中期以來，幣安上的山寨幣交易量一直在穩步增長。

Back in May of that year, altcoins only accounted for a total of 50% in the exchange’s trading volume.

早在當年5月，山寨幣僅佔該交易所交易量的50%。

However, this shifted dramatically towards the end of the year, with altcoins claiming the majority of the trading volume on Binance.

然而，這種情況在年底發生了巨大變化，山寨幣佔據了幣安交易量的大部分。

The continuous rise in altcoin dominance suggests that investors are becoming more interested in altcoins.

山寨幣主導地位的持續上升表明投資者對山寨幣越來越感興趣。

This shift in preference, coupled with investors diversifying their assets away from Bitcoin, could pave the way for a bullish altcoin market in 2025.

這種偏好的轉變，加上投資者將資產從比特幣轉向多元化，可能為 2025 年看漲的山寨幣市場鋪平道路。

However, a broader analysis of market indicators reveals a contrasting narrative.

然而，對市場指標進行更廣泛的分析揭示了相反的情況。

Data from CoinMarketCap shows that the altcoin season index currently stands at 44, indicating that the altcoin market has not yet gained sufficient traction.

CoinMarketCap 的數據顯示，山寨幣季節指數目前為 44，顯示山寨幣市場尚未獲得足夠的牽引力。

This index is calculated by comparing the performance of the top 100 altcoins to Bitcoin. Essentially, a score above 50% would signal the start of a new altcoin season, while a break below 50% would indicate that Bitcoin is still in control.

該指數是透過比較前 100 名山寨幣與比特幣的表現來計算的。本質上，高於 50% 的分數將標誌著新的山寨幣季節的開始，而低於 50% 的分數則表明比特幣仍處於控制之中。

Furthermore, Bitcoin’s dominance has risen by 2% in the past month, now sitting at a robust 57.4%.

此外，比特幣的主導地位在過去一個月上升了 2%，目前達到 57.4%。

Could Ethereum Be the Catalyst?

以太坊可以成為催化劑嗎？

For a true altcoin season to begin, Ethereum may hold the key.

對於真正的山寨幣季節的開始，以太坊可能是關鍵。

Given its significant market cap margin compared to other altcoins, the cryptocurrency has served as a bellwether for the altcoin market in the past.

鑑於其與其他山寨幣相比具有顯著的市值利潤，該加密貨幣過去一直是山寨幣市場的領導者。

As such, a strong uptick in Ethereum’s performance could tip the scales in favor of altcoins.

因此，以太坊表現的強勁上升可能會使天秤向有利於山寨幣的方向傾斜。

At the time of writing, Ethereum has rebounded from the $3,000 zone and is aiming to break above the $3,500 and $4,000 resistance levels.

截至撰寫本文時，以太幣已從 3,000 美元區域反彈，目標是突破 3,500 美元和 4,000 美元阻力位。

According to some analysts, the cryptocurrency could even rally as high as the $8,000 zone.

一些分析師認為，加密貨幣甚至可能上漲至 8,000 美元區域。

A breakout from the psychological $3,500 resistance would trigger a broader altcoin rally, setting the tone for the altcoin market.

突破 3,500 美元的心理阻力位將引發更廣泛的山寨幣反彈，為山寨幣市場定調。

If Ethereum continues to rise and reaches the $4,000 resistance level, it would signal a shift in investor confidence and a large-scale pivot from Bitcoin towards altcoins.

如果以太坊繼續上漲並達到 4,000 美元的阻力位，這將標誌著投資者信心的轉變以及從比特幣大規模轉向山寨幣的信號。

A Dynamic Market Posed with New Challenges

充滿活力的市場帶來新的挑戰

Despite the optimism surrounding Ethereum’s performance and the altcoin market, some experts have issued dire warnings.

儘管人們對以太坊的表現和山寨幣市場持樂觀態度，但一些專家還是發出了可怕的警告。

One such expert is CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju, who highlighted that the current market cycle is distinct from previous ones.

CryptoQuant 執行長 Ki Young Ju 是其中一位專家，他強調目前的市場週期與先前的市場週期不同。

Alt season is no longer defined by asset rotation from #Bitcoin.

Alt 季節不再由 #Bitcoin 的資產輪換來定義。

The surge in altcoin trading volume isn’t driven by $BTC pairs but by stablecoin and fiat pairs, reflecting real market growth rather than asset

山寨幣交易量的激增不是由 BTC 貨幣對推動的，而是由穩定幣和法定貨幣對推動的，反映了真實的市場增長而不是資產增長

According to the analysis, Bitcoin’s market capitalization has doubled since 2021.

根據分析，自2021年以來，比特幣的市值已經翻了一番。

This implies that only a select few altcoin projects with strong use cases are likely to thrive.

這意味著只有少數具有強大用例的山寨幣專案可能會蓬勃發展。

Moreover, the market has become highly selective, with investors prioritizing quality over quantity.

此外，市場已經變得高度選擇性，投資者優先考慮品質而不是數量。