Behind Bitcoin Shadow Stocks: U.S. Stock Macro weekly 20241117

Every Saturday and Sunday, US stock technology and macro. Learn more about financial information, research report information, trading logic, if the content has resonated with you, please subscribe to us to support us to continue analysis and creation. Thank you. Marketing • The three major indexes continued to soften after a closing high on Monday. On Friday, the expected US reduction of US stocks was under pressure, and the end of the market accelerated to sell. • The Nasdaq index fell -3.15%, the S & P 500 index fell -2.08%, the Dow Jones Index fell -1.24%, the Rusan 2000 index fell -3.99%, and the Philadelphia semiconductor index fell -8.64%. • Only Tesla rose in the "Seven Sisters of Technology", and the inferior application materials were dragging down chip stocks, and then dragged down the NATO and the S & P technology sector to fall by more than 2%. • Trump nominated the anti -vaccine pioneer Kennedy as the Minister of Health. The medical care sector took over 4.45%, and the genetic testing company 23andme fell 21.47%. • Bitcoin futures rose by more than 4%, and the concept stocks of cryptocurrencies rose. Key events 1. US macro data and policy • Trump's new government's nomination nominations have been announced one after another. • US retail sales in October increased by 0.4%month -on -month, higher than expected, but inflation is still stubborn. • The United States in November of the New York Federal Manufacturing Index soared to 31.2, a new high in the past three years. • The import price in October in October accidentally rose 0.3%month -on -month, higher than expected. • The industrial output value in the United States declined in October and continued to be dragged down by strikes and hurricanes. • Economic data is still tough, and Collins, which is superimposed in 2025 and the Boston Fed Chairman, said that in December, interest rate cuts were not "nailing on the board", and traders reduced the betting of the Fed's 2025 interest rate reduction in 2025. 2. The institutional statement of interest rate cuts of the Fed • Barclays: The Fed predicted that the Fed will cut interest rates twice in 2025, which was previously estimated to be 3 times. • Goldman Sachs Group: May want to take more cautious actions to ensure that the correct end point on the road to interest rate cuts. • JPMorgan Chase: It is predicted that the Fed will cut interest rates once a quarter from March 2025 until the federal fund interest rate will drop to 3.5%. • Nomura Securities: adjust the number of interest rate cuts in the United States in 2025 from 4 to 1 time, and increase the terminal interest rate forecast of 50 basis points to 3.625%. 3. Plate market • The 11 sectors of the S & P 500 index fell. • Most ETFs in the US stock industry closed down, and the Biotechnology Index ETF fell by about 4.8%. • The chip stocks fell collectively on Friday, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 8.64%this week. 4. 23andMe incident • 23andMe incident may become another major event in Silicon Valley. Its genetic data is not very useful for deep excavation diseases, and it has not been supervised by FDA for a long time. It is obvious. 5. MSTR Case-Bitcoin Shadow Stocks • Microstrategy's stock price has risen 6 times a year and has risen nearly 20 times in the past five years. The appreciation of Bitcoin achieves "wealth". • Microsterategy's myth is inseparable from its unique equity financing method -TM (issuance/additional issuance at market price). • Microsterategy has planned to raise $ 42 billion in bonds of US $ 21 billion and $ 21 billion in the next three years to purchase nearly 600,000 Bitcoin, accounting for about 3%of the total supply of Bitcoin. • Microsterategy raised funds through the ATM model to maximize the holdings of Bitcoin with the high volatility of the stock and the Bitcoin market, but there is also a potential risk brought by market fluctuations. Follow Nvidia's financial report next week. This issue: The anchor left behind the scene to make right pockets.