XRP Price Slumps Despite the End of the SEC Case and Ecosystem Growth

Ripple was trading at $2.2 on April 1, down by 35% from its highest level in 2025. There is a risk that the XRP coin will crash soon, even as the Ripple USD (RLUSD) volume to total value locked (TVL) jumped.

The first quarter saw a downturn in XRP price despite some notable Ripple news, including the conclusion of the SEC case and its ecosystem growth.

At the beginning of April, Ripple was trading at $2.2, down by 35% from its highest level in 2025. Some technical indicators suggest that there is a risk of the XRP coin crashing soon, even as the Ripple USD (RLUSD) volume to total value locked (TVL) jumped.

One of Ripple’s strategies to grow its ecosystem has been the launch of RLUSD, a regulated stablecoin. The goal is to provide an alternative to Tether (USDT) and USD Coin (USDC).

Both these tokens have faced scrutiny from U.S. authorities, ultimately leading to the closure of the SEC case against Ripple in April.

Recent data shows that the RLUSD stablecoin is still a small player in the stablecoin industry. It has a market cap of over $243 million, a tiny amount in an industry valued at over $237 billion.

However, one closely watched metric shows that RLUSD is in a good place. It has a volume-to-total value locked (TVL) of 37%. This figure is much higher than that of other stablecoins. For example, USDC has a ratio of 14.26%, while Tether is slightly behind at 34.5%.

A higher ratio means that the specific stablecoin’s token is being used by people to handle daily transactions and a higher liquidity is provided to facilitate trading. A stablecoin with a low ratio means that it is not being used.

In the case of USDC, the high liquidity comes from exchanges like Binance, Huobi, and OKX. Most of the trading volume is being done on these platforms.

In the case of RLUSD, the biggest liquidity provider is Sologenic, followed by Crypto Trading Fund and Coreum. Some smaller contributors include XRP Army and several other tokens.

After a strong start to 2024, the XRP price has also lagged despite other bullish catalysts. Some companies have applied for a spot XRP ETF, while the SEC has ended its case.

Moreover, in the past few months, Ripple has been working to become the best alternative to SWIFT, a network that handles billions of dollars each day.

While Ripple has some solid fundamentals, there is a risk that it will have a strong downtrend in the coming weeks.

There is a risk that the XRP price is about to form a death cross pattern as the spread between the 50-day and 200-day Weighted Moving Averages (WMA) narrows. A death cross is a highly risky pattern in technical analysis.

It occurs when the shorter-term MA crosses below the longer-term one. Usually, the 50-day and 200-day Simple Moving Averages are used to form this cross.

In the case of XRP, the 50-day WMA is converging with the 200-day one, and the former could soon cross below the latter. If this happens, it will form a death cross, which could escalate the bearish trend.

The other risk is that the Ripple price has formed a head and shoulders pattern, whose neckline is at around $2. This price coincides with the 50% Fibonacci Retracement, which is drawn by connecting the lowest point in 2024 and highest level this year.

Therefore, a drop below this neckline will be a victory for bears, who will trigger panic selling. More downside will push the token downwards, potentially to the $1.5, the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement level.

The bearish Ripple price forecast will be canceled if the coin surges above right shoulder point at $3. Such a move will likely trigger a jump to the YTD high of $3.4, followed by the psychological point at $5.