XRP Price Prediction: Will the SEC Approve Spot XRP ETF by the End of 2025?

As Bitcoin price (BTC) retested a crucial resistance level around $98.5k in the last 24 hours, Ripple Labs-backed XRP (XRP) has gradually shifted to bullish momentum.

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Bitcoin (BTC) price showed little to no directional bias in the last 24 hours as BTC price retested a crucial resistance level around $98.5k. However, the flagship digital asset was trading at a price of about $97.4k with a 24-hour volatility of 0.3%.

Meanwhile, XRP price showed a 24-hour gain of about 2.5% and was trading at a price of around $2.63 with an average 24-hour trading volume of about $4.08 billion.

Crucially, XRP price has been retesting a key resistance range between $2.6 and $2.8 in the past few days. Notably, the large-cap digital asset has a fully diluted valuation of about $266 billion and a 24-hour trading volume of about $3.2 billion, which showcases a divergence between the market capitalization and trading volume.

In the daily time frame, XRP price is displaying a possible head and shoulders (H&S) pattern coupled with a bearish divergence of the Relative Strength Index (RSI).

This technical formation indicates a bearish market structure, especially in the presence of a downtrend. However, the fear of a market reversal is palpable amid low whale activity and short-term macroeconomic uncertainty caused by the tariff war triggered by US President Donald Trump.

Moreover, XRP price, against the US dollar, is retesting a crucial support/resistance level in the weekly time frame, which coincides with the 2021 all-time high (ATH). Historically, a crypto bullish resurgence is experienced amid low optimism from traders, especially after heavy liquidations.

From a technical analysis standpoint, XRP price has been forming a bullish pennant flag in the past three months, after a notable breakout from a six-year triangular consolidation. Considering an Elliott Wave theory, XRP price is almost completing the second wave, which will set the stage for the third wave and coincide with price discovery.

The bullish sentiment for XRP will be delayed if the altcoin consistently closes below the support level of around $2.25.

Spot XRP ETF Odds Rises

As reported earlier by Coinspeaker, several fund managers, including Grayscale Investments, Bitwise, Canary Capital, and WisdomTree, have filed with the US SEC to offer a spot XRP ETF. Earlier this week, the US SEC acknowledged Bitwise spot XRP ETF in a 19b-5 filing, which increased the odds of approval ahead.

On Thursday, the agency officially posted Grayscale’s spot XRP ETF 19b-4 filing on the Federal Register. Crucially, the US SEC now has until October 18, 2025, to either approve or deny the listing of Grayscale’s spot XRP ETF under the NYSE Arca.

Following the announcement, the odds of a spot XRP ETF approval in the United States by the end of 202