UFC 313 tips: Justin Gaethje to win, Mauricio Ruffy to win, Ignacio Bahamondes to win

T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas will play host to a stacked card of fights as UFC 313 brings the Octagon back home to Las Vegas next weekend.

T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas will play host to a stacked card of fights as UFC 313 brings the Octagon back home to Las Vegas next weekend.

Headlining the event is a light heavyweight title clash between Alex Pereira and Magomed Ankalaev, but before the two title fighters set foot in the Octagon, a packed lineup of fights will keep the fans entertained, with one of the most spectacular fighters in UFC history set to return to action in the co-main event.

We’ve picked out three matchups to follow before the main event as we bring you one underdog pick, one favourite pick and one coin-flip selection ahead of fight night in Vegas.

UFC 313 tips

The underdog pick: Justin Gaethje v Rafael Fiziev – Gaethje to winThe favourite pick: King Green v Mauricio Ruffy – Ruffy to winThe coin-flip pick: Jalin Turner v Ignacio Bahamondes – Bahamondes to win

The underdog pick: Justin Gaethje

At UFC 313, Justin Gaethje will attempt to do something he’s never done in his career – bounce back from a knockout.

Gaethje had never been knocked out cold in his fighting career until he faced Max Holloway at UFC 300, where he was flatlined by the former featherweight champ in the last second of the last round in one of the most dramatic finishes in UFC history.

After taking time away to recover, Gaethje is back, and faces former foe Rafael Fiziev, who has agreed to step in on short notice to replace the injured Dan Hooker.

Interestingly, despite Gaethje winning their first meeting in London at UFC 286, Fiziev is favoured to win the rematch. That makes Gaethje a huge value pick. He’s a higher-level fighter than Fiziev, and while “Ataman” has outstanding, sharp stand-up skills, Gaethje has the top-level experience to match just about anyone at 155 pounds.

It’ll be another cracker of a matchup, and the bout itself is a virtual coin-flip. In a 50-50 fight, I like the longer odds on Gaethje, who will be fired up to bounce back with a statement performance.

The favourite pick: Mauricio Ruffy

Rising lightweight contender and member of the famed “Fighting Nerds” team, Mauricio Ruffy, is an absolute lock to pick up the victory when he returns to the cage to face seasoned vet King Green.

Green has thrown hands with a who’s who of the UFC lightweight division over the years, but there’s no ignoring the concerns over his punch resistance after 49 career fights.

Fight number 50 looks like a nightmare matchup for Green, with Brazil’s Ruffy arriving in Vegas riding a six-fight win streak. His last outing saw him go the distance for the first time in his career as he was pushed to the scorecards by the tough, but outgunned, James Llontop.

But the judges likely won’t be needed for this one, with Ruffy’s spectacular striking very likely to make the breakthrough inside the opening two rounds for a KO/TKO victory. The 1/5 odds on Ruffy to win the bout represent the confidence everyone has in the Brazilian, but once the additional markets become available, look at betting the under, or betting the KO, for a better value bet.

The coin-flip pick: Ignacio Bahamondes

Once considered by some as the future of the UFC lightweight division, Jalin Turner has hit a rough patch of late. “The Tarantula” tore through the lightweight division, but once he hit the top 15, things got tricky.

Split-decision losses to Mateusz Gamrot and Dan Hooker halted his momentum, and while he bounced back with a morale-boosting first-round finish of veteran King Green, he was defeated emphatically by Renato Moicano last time out at UFC 300.

After losing three of his last four, you could forgive Turner for hoping that he’d get an easier opponent. But that’s certainly not the case this weekend.

Chile’s Ignacio Bahamondes is a spectacular talent, with a penchant for stunning finishes.

Eleven of his 16 career wins have come by knockout, and his last two outings saw him register highlight-reel finishes of Christos Giagos and Manuel Torres.

Now Bahamondes is moving up in quality to face Turner, but his striking ability, coupled with the confidence of a man who in spectacular form, gives him the edge in a fight that the oddsmakers just can’t split.

Both men are priced at 9/10 to win, and we’re siding with Bahamondes to get the job done.