How Trump Could Change Crypto

Analysts expect a broad market rally and changes in SEC leadership. Trump’s crypto policies include a bitcoin strategic reserve, banning a central bank digital currency and freeing Ross Ulbricht.

Following Donald J. Trump's victory in the 2024 presidential election, cryptocurrency markets surged with new hopes for a more favorable regulatory environment. Here's how the industry might be impacted by the election outcome, according to CoinDesk analysts and other observers.

Bitcoin to $100K and beyond: As crypto prices soared following the election, with bitcoin reaching an all-time high, CoinDesk senior analyst James Van Straten anticipates further gains. “BTC is still below the [Consumer Price Index] inflation adjusted price which is $77k, so it is still relatively cheap,” said Van Straten, highlighting the potential for lower prices compared to the peak of the previous bull cycle.

Good for Tether (USDT), less so for Circle (USDC): Trump's victory is also a win for Tether, issuer of the largest stablecoin, USDT, given the company's relationship with Cantor Fitzgerald. The financial giant manages over $100 billion in U.S. Treasuries for Tether, and Cantor's CEO, Howard Lutnick, has been a major Trump backer throughout the presidential campaign and is co-chair of the President-Elect’s transition team.

Good for solana (SOL), less so for ether (ETH): Solana (SOL), the third largest cryptocurrency, would also benefit from the election outcome. “The SEC is poised for a change of leadership, and it would be surprising for the new chairperson to be as adversarial towards crypto as Gary Gensler has been,” said CoinDesk markets reporter Tom Carreras, regarding the potential impact on regulatory approvals for crypto assets.

More market breadth: So far this year, the rise of crypto prices has mostly been in BTC and a small number of other popular assets. Out of the 20 assets in the CoinDesk 20 index, only six were in the green as of Nov. 1 (Bitcoin Cash, Render, Near, Bitcoin, Ether, Solana).

DeFi to benefit, led by Uniswap: Prices for decentralized finance assets have been relatively muted this cycle. But that could soon change. “In his campaign, Trump promised to make the U.S. a leading hub for cryptocurrency, which might translate into more favorable regulations for DeFi,” said Shaurya Malwa, CoinDesk deputy managing editor for data and tokens.

Goodbye Gensler ?: In his acceptance speech, Trump said “I will govern by a simple motto, promises made, promises kept.” If so, that could mean a series of seismic changes for digital assets, per this reckoner from WU Blockchain. Most SEC chairs step down following the election of a new president.