title: Crypto markets stabilize following comments from Commerce Minister Howard Lutnick, who said President Donald Trump could announce on Wednesday a pathway for tariff relief on Canadian and Mexican imports covered by NAFTA.

The crypto market has stabilized somewhat following comments from Commerce Minister Howard Lutnick, who said President Donald Trump could announce on Wednesday a pathway for tariff relief on Canadian and Mexican imports covered by NAFTA.

The crypto market has seen some stabilization following comments from Commerce Minister Howard Lutnick, who said President Donald Trump could announce on Wednesday a pathway for tariff relief on Canadian and Mexican imports covered by the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA).

This has helped Bitcoin (BTC) rebound to nearly $90K, pushing the total crypto market cap over $2.9 trillion. The recovery could extend further as recent trade war fears and market volatility have renewed bets on Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts.

According to CME's FedWatch tool, the market is now pricing in at least three rate cuts for this year, while the 10-year Treasury yield has pulled back to 4.15%, down from 4.80% at the time of Trump's inauguration. Meanwhile, Germany's move to abandon its fiscal constraints has led to surging bond yields, kicking off a sell-off in the dollar index that could encourage risk-taking in the market.

As a result, there’s a chance we might see Bitcoin revisit its weekend high of $95,000, especially as technical charts are showing signs of seller exhaustion.

However, worsening growth concerns could limit these gains. Just two days ago, the Atlanta Fed's GDP forecast slid into negative territory at -2.8%, raising fears of stagflation, as noted by Singapore-based QCP Capital. The firm highlighted the importance of monitoring corporate yield spreads—both high-yield and investment-grade bonds—relative to U.S. Treasury yields for signs of market stress. "While this isn't signaling panic now, it's a trend we're closely watching," QCP said in a Telegram broadcast.

One crucial aspect is determining how much of the 10-year yield decline and the weakness in the dollar can be attributed to traders adjusting their expectations about U.S. economic exceptionalism, which was largely driven by the Biden era's fiscal splurge. With the rise of ETFs and Trump's pro-crypto stance, Bitcoin has become more of a U.S. play, and a shift in the U.S. exceptionalism narrative could translate into significant volatility for BTC.

One crucial aspect is determining how much of the 10-year yield decline and the weakness in the dollar can be attributed to traders adjusting their expectations about U.S. economic exceptionalism, which was largely driven by the Biden era's fiscal splurge. With the rise of ETFs and Trump's pro-crypto stance, Bitcoin has become more of a U.S. play, and a shift in the U.S. exceptionalism narrative could translate into significant volatility for BTC.

JPMorgan, however, foresees a strengthening of the U.S. exceptionalism narrative under Trump's Presidency.

All of this means that Wednesday's U.S. ISM non-manufacturing (services) PMI and Friday's nonfarm payrolls could significantly influence the crypto markets.

All of this means that Wednesday's U.S. ISM non-manufacturing (services) PMI and Friday's nonfarm payrolls could significantly influence the crypto markets.

There are also rumors that President Trump will unveil the crypto reserve strategy at the White House Crypto Summit this Friday. With Trump having made considerable promises, the markets will be closely watching to see if he delivers; otherwise, there could be further turmoil ahead. Stay alert!

What to Watch

Crypto:

March 5, 11:00 a.m.: Circle is hosting a live webinar titled “State of the USDC Economy 2025” featuring Circle Chief Strategy Officer and Head of Global Policy Dante Disparte and three other executives from Bridge, Nubank and Cumberland.

March 6: Ethereum-based L2 blockchain MegaETH is deploying its public testnet, with user onboarding starting on March 10.

March 7: President Trump will host the inaugural White House Crypto Summit, bringing together top cryptocurrency founders, CEOs and investors.

March 11: The Bitcoin Policy Institute and U.S. Senator Cynthia Lummis are co-hosting the invitation-only one-day event "Bitcoin for America" in Washington.

March 12: Hemi, an L2 blockchain that operates on both Bitcoin and Ethereum, has its mainnet launch.

Macro

March 5, 8:00 a.m.: S&P Global will release February Brazil economic activity data.

Services PMI Prev. 47.6

Composite PMI Prev. 48.2

March 5, 8:15 a.m.: Automatic Data Processing AADP will release February U.S. non-farm private sector employment data.

ADP Employment Change Est. 140K vs. Prev. 183K

March 5, 9:30 a.m.: S&P Global will release February Canada economic activity data.

Services PMI Prev. 49

Composite PMI Prev. 49.5

March 5, 9:45 a.m.: S&P Global will release February U.S. economic activity data.

Services PMI Est. 49.7 vs. Prev. 52.9

PMI services is. 49.7 vs. Prev. 52.9

Composite PMI Est. vs. 50.4 vs. Prev. 52.7

March 5, 10:00 a.m.: Institute for Supply Management (ISM) will release February U.S. economic activity data.

Services PMI Est. 52.6 vs. Prev. 52

PMI services is. 52.6 vs. Prev. 52