Solana (SOL) Navigates a Pivotal Decision Point That Could Determine Its Next Major Move

This article takes a deep dive into Solana's current price action, analyzing critical support and resistance levels, potential breakout scenarios, and what traders should watch.

Solana (SOL) has been trading in a corrective phase after completing a five-wave impulse in a time frame. As the market structure consolidates, price action is compressing between key Fibonacci levels and structural support.

With both bullish and bearish scenarios still in play, SOL appears to be at a pivotal decision point that could determine its next major move. This analysis will take a closer look at the current market structure, critical resistance and support levels, and potential breakout scenarios.

Solana’s Broad Structure: 4-Hour Time Frame

The 4-hour chart of Solana showcases the conclusion of a long impulsive rally, reaching an all-time high of $294. This peak completed Wave 5 of a macro Elliott Wave structure.

After this rally, SOL entered a corrective phase, forming a descending channel with the most recent low at $118.34 on March 11. This low coincided with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level of the impulsive wave, acting as a strong support level. From this low, we saw a recovery, but its sustainability is still in question.

Solana Breakout from Descending Channel

Recently, SOL broke out from the descending channel, which could suggest a possible bullish reversal. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at this time frame has shifted from oversold to neutral, indicating that selling pressure is decreasing. However, bullish momentum is still relatively weak.

After the breakout, SOL managed to reclaim the $131–$140 support band but encountered resistance below the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level at $147, failing to confirm a strong bullish continuation. This suggests that bears are still present and could exert more pressure if buyers fail to defend the key levels.

Solana: Key Technical Levels and Indicators

* Immediate Resistance Levels: $147 (0.5 Fib retracement), $151.96 (previous swing high), $159.86

* Support Levels to Watch: $130, $131–$140 support band, $118.34 (0.618 Fib)

* Short-Term Targets for Wave (iii): $185–$190

Solana: Bullish vs. Bearish Scenarios

* Bullish Scenario: For bulls to regain control, SOL must defend the $130 support zone and form a higher low. This would indicate that buyers are stepping in, potentially setting up a Wave (iii) move toward the $185–$190 range. A sustained move above $151.96 and then $185.57 would confirm this bullish continuation.

Additionally, the RSI is currently leaning toward oversold on the 1-hour chart, which could suggest the possibility of a bounce. However, a stronger confirmation is required, likely with a reclaim of $140 and a follow-through move above $147.

* Bearish Scenario: If SOL fails to hold the $130 support level, then we could see a continuation of the corrective structure, potentially leading to another leg lower. A break below this level would invalidate the bullish outlook and confirm a deeper correction, possibly extending toward $70.48 if selling pressure intensifies.

Solana: Market Sentiment & Broader Crypto Trends

Solana’s price movement is also influenced by broader market trends, including Bitcoin’s performance and overall investor sentiment in the crypto space.

If Bitcoin experiences a strong rally, it could generate broader bullish sentiment, which might benefit SOL and other altcoins with a correlated move higher. Conversely, a Bitcoin sell-off could add more pressure to SOL’s already fragile structure, setting it up for further declines.

Moreover, factors such as institutional interest in Solana, network developments, and macroeconomic conditions will play a role in shaping the coin’s trajectory in the coming weeks.

Solana: A Critical Decision Point

To summarize, Solana is approaching a pivotal decision point. A bounce from current levels could ignite a fresh impulsive wave, while failure to defend the $130 support could invite another bearish leg, completing a triple correction.

Traders should keep a close eye on key levels, particularly the $140–$147 resistance zone and the $130 support. A breakout above $151.96 could open the door for a rally toward $185–$190, setting the stage for further bullish moves. Conversely, a breakdown below $118.34 would suggest a continuation of the bearish trend.

With market conditions still presenting both opportunities and risks, Solana remains a relatively high-risk, high-reward asset at this stage. The crucial question is whether bulls can manage to push prices higher from here or whether bears will ultimately regain control to drive prices lower. This will be decided in the coming days and