Since US President Donald Trump’s inauguration on Jan. 20

Since US President Donald Trump’s inauguration on Jan. 20

The recent interplay between US President Donald Trump's administration and macroeconomic trends has kept crypto investors on the edge of their seats, especially as the president's signature policy agenda — tariffs — slashed into cryptocurrency market value and rattled global markets.

Since Trump's inauguration on Jan. 20, Bitcoin (BTC) has swung from a record high of $109,000 to below $78,000 as major tariff announcements from the US and retaliatory moves from trade partners shaved off chunks of cryptocurrency market value.

"The back-and-forth on tariffs, with Trump sometimes tough and sometimes accommodating, has left markets in a limbo state, where few people are willing to be decidedly bullish but just as few are willing to part with their assets, fearing to be left on the side-lines at the next rally," Justin d'Anethan, head of sales at crypto firm Liquify, told Cointelegraph.

By mid-March, investors began regaining confidence as White House messaging pointed to a more measured approach. But mixed signals remain, and with a second wave of "reciprocal tariffs" looming on April 2 — dubbed Liberation Day — market jitters haven't fully subsided.

March began with administration officials hinting at tailoring tariffs to each country's trade practices and potentially avoiding them entirely if partners lowered their own barriers. As financial markets, rattled for weeks by the tariff saga, began to recover, Bitcoin rose to $88,474 on March 24.

"In the week leading up to Trump’s reciprocal tariffs on April 2, expect market volatility, corporate lobbying for exemptions, preemptive price hikes, and global diplomatic efforts to mitigate the impact," said Ryan Lee, chief analyst at Bitget Research in a recent written analysis shared with Cointelegraph.

"After the tariffs take effect, anticipate inflation spikes, supply chain disruptions, and mixed job outcomes, with potential stock market shocks and retaliatory trade measures from partners like China and Canada possibly slowing US economic growth."

March also saw the administration unveil plans for a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and digital asset stockpile — including XRP, SOL, and ADA.

But the news arrived amid heightened concern over the Trump administration's handling of immigration and fentanyl smuggling, leading to an executive order imposing 10% tariffs on all Chinese imports and 25% on Canadian and Mexican goods, effective Feb. 4, despite warnings from China, Canada and Mexico of retaliation.

The move also prompted a backlash from US allies, with EU officials saying the administration should focus on cooperation over competition.

The administration later announced a one-month exemption on tariffs for US automakers importing from Canada and Mexico, and the White House extended the tariff pause on many imports that qualify under the USMCA.

At the same time, President Trump credited Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum for "unprecedented" border cooperation and cooperation in curbing fentanyl smuggling, and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau signaled Canada was working to ease tensions with the US.

The administration's tone began to soften in mid-March, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent saying tariffs would be tailored to each country's trade practices and could be avoided entirely if partners lowered their own barriers.

Financial markets, rattled for weeks by the tariff saga, began to recover. On March 24, Bitcoin rose to $88,474 on reports that the administration's next round of tariffs would be more targeted than initially feared.

"The optimism over the administration's handling of the tariff situation is also likely to keep traders upbeat," said Ben Azouri, an analyst at CapitalVia.

However, despite the recent shift in strategy, the administration's trade agenda remains a key focus for investors, especially with the second phase of "reciprocal tariffs" set to take effect on April 2— also known as Liberation Day.

"The optimism over the administration's handling of the tariff situation is also likely to keep traders upbeat," said Ben Azouri, an analyst at CapitalVia.

However, despite the recent shift in strategy, the administration's trade agenda remains a key focus for investors, especially with the second phase of "reciprocal tariffs" set to take effect on April 2— also known as Liberation Day.

"In the week leading up to Trump’s reciprocal tariffs on April 2, expect market volatility, corporate lobbying for exemptions, preemptive price hikes, and global diplomatic efforts to mitigate the impact," said Ryan Lee, chief analyst at Bitget Research in a recent written analysis shared with Cointelegraph.

"After the tariffs take effect, anticipate inflation spikes, supply chain disruptions, and mixed job outcomes, with potential stock market shocks and retaliatory trade measures from partners like China and Canada possibly slowing US economic growth."

Investors should also continue monitoring traditional market developments, especially with Bitcoin's rising correlation with traditional indexes, said Liquify's d'Anethan.

"With BTC’s correlation to the S&P