This downward movement led to an extended consolidation period, where the asset gradually formed a rounded bottom in the $0.05–$0.06 range.
This analysis piece claims that Dogecoin (DOGE) is potentially forming a cup and handle pattern on the weekly chart, which could signal a significant price increase. The analyst predicts that, if confirmed, Dogecoin could be targeting an ambitious price target of $4.
The first stage of this pattern, the cup, began taking shape when Dogecoin initially declined from its May 2021 all-time high at $0.74. This downward movement led to an extended consolidation period, where the asset gradually formed a rounded bottom in the $0.05-$0.06 range. The curvature of the price action suggests a slow but steady shift in market sentiment, where selling pressure was gradually absorbed by buyers accumulating DOGE at lower levels.
As time progressed, Dogecoin started to recover from this bottom, pushing back towards its December 2024 high at $0.48. The gradual and steady rise back to this high signals that bullish momentum has been building, with increasing interest from market participants.
After reaching the $0.48 resistance level, Dogecoin faced a rejection, leading to a moderate pullback. This decline formed the handle, a smaller downward retracement that typically precedes the final breakout. The handle in this setup is forming around the $0.14-$0.17 price zone, where the market is currently consolidating.
The handle serves as the last phase where weaker hands exit, and stronger buying interest gathers momentum before a decisive move higher. If Dogecoin successfully breaks out of the cup and handle pattern, the projected price target can be estimated using the measured move technique. This involves calculating the depth of the cup and adding that value to the breakout point. Based on this method, the expected target is around $4, according to the chart shared by analyst Kevin.
A textbook cup and handle requires specific structural characteristics, including a rounded bottom and a shallow handle, forming near a prior all-time high or key resistance zone before a breakout. However, there are critical deviations in this analysis that cast doubt on its validity.
The decline from $0.74 (May 2021 ATH) to $0.05-$0.06 is too deep and prolonged to be considered a proper cup formation. Classic cup patterns typically form over weeks to months, not multiple years of extended downtrend. The recovery from $0.05-$0.06 to $0.48 is not symmetrical with the initial drop, making the “rounded bottom” aspect of the cup questionable. Instead, the price action resembles a multi-year accumulation phase rather than a continuous rounding structure.
Moreover, the handle is forming too deep in the structure. A valid handle should develop near the rim (i.e., close to $0.48), but in this case, Dogecoin has retraced all the way down to $0.14-$0.17—which is a massive drop of over 65% from the supposed cup rim. A healthy handle should not drop below 50% of the cup’s depth, but here, it retraces nearly to the lower third of the structure, invalidating the classical pattern.
