The curious case of XRP's performance

Donald Trump's November re-election ensured that, on January 20, the most cryptocurrency-friendly candidate in U.S. history was inaugurated

The legal and regulatory year 2025 has certainly been very positive for Ripple Labs and for the XRP token.

Donald Trump’s November re-election ensured that, on January 20, the most cryptocurrency-friendly candidate in U.S. history was inaugurated, ushering in a more cordial Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) that, by March 20, dropped the long-standing XRP court case.

However, despite the positive developments – and the optimism for the future that emerged from the regulatory developments and hopes for greater adoption through means like an XRP exchange-traded fund (ETF) – the token has been performing without much luster in the first quarter (Q1) of 2025.

Community remains bullish despite XRP’s $7 billion wipe

The curious case of XRP’s performance became particularly pointed by March 28 as the cryptocurrency suffered a sharp plunge that ensured it wiped $7 billion from its market capitalization within just 24 hours.

Indeed, the latest market activity means that the token is only 6.90% up year-to-date (YTD) with a press time price of $2.22. While such a setup does not appear dreadful given that, some six months ago, the cryptocurrency was changing hands near $0.50, it is simultaneously 32.93% below highs recorded as recently as January 17.

Still, while some are wondering why is XRP dropping today, the community, as a whole, appears mostly bullish.

The community sentiment meter shows that the attitude is generally optimistic, with 88% bullish and only 12% bearish, per the data Finbold retrieved from CoinMarketCap on March 28.

Similarly, only about 29% of XRP positions have been bearish in the last 24 hours, according to the statistics Finbold extracted from Coinalyze on the same day. Simultaneously, the relatively low ratio can be explained by the steep plunge rather than long-term positivity, as strong downward movements tend to precede upward corrections.

Crypto gamblers weigh in on XRP’s future

What is indicative of the outlook for 2025 are the bets placed on Polymarket. To begin with, the prediction market setup for the potential XRP ETF showcases that 85% of the participants are willing to wager money on the product getting approved by December 31.

However, optimism is somewhat tempered by the recent turn to negativity seen with the bets about an XRP ETF getting approved by July 31 – it recently fell by 18% to 35% – and for the odds of the token hitting a new all-time high (ATH) before 2026 starts – a 10% drop ensured it is, at press time, hovering at 40%.

Community XRP price prediction 2025

Interestingly, the wider sentiment regarding XRP – and, given collective psychology’s impact on the cryptocurrency market, the token’s performance – might be made or broken on Friday, March 28.

Multiple recent community ideas, published via TradingView, have identified the day as critical for XRP’s performance. Overall, the predictions have been bullish, with a member known as Reeza87 opining that, should the token reclaim $3.02, its path to a new high would be opened. Furthermore, they also offered their XRP price prediction with a target as high as $200 in the examination.

Early on March 28, Drmagicman posted his analysis claiming that the cryptocurrency is closely following its 2017 performance and that, should it continue doing so, it shall swiftly enjoy a powerful bullish breakout.

Another community member, itsjustanalysis spotted an uncanny convergence of factors on March 28. According to the user, Friday marks 144 days since the November 4 breakout, 52 days since the February ‘flash crash,’ while simultaneously having the Ichimoku’s Chikou Span point toward a powerful bullish setup.

They also offered a more conservative $2.61 as a positive close, hinting that if XRP records such success on March 28, the community’s confidence is likely to be restored and solidified.

Why it may be too early for the community to make up its mind about XRP

Despite the community’s cautious positivity and high hopes for Friday, it is possible that it is still far too early to make up one’s mind about the token’s long-term 2025 performance. The relative lack of impact of the dropping of the XRP lawsuit is emblematic of the great turmoil affecting the cryptocurrency and stock markets in recent months.

Indeed, President Trump’s impact on XRP has been different than expected, and he has, thus far, been an agent of chaos. It is likely that the markets will have to take some more time to adjust to the new