Crypto markets will witness over $2.5 billion worth of Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) options expire today.

Examining the put-to-call ratios and maximum pain points can provide insights into traders' expectations and possible market directions.

Today will see over $2.5 billion in Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) options expire, a significant event that has traders attentive.

The volume of expiring contracts and their notional value can influence short-term trends. Examining the put-to-call ratios and maximum pain points can provide insights into traders’ expectations and possible market directions.

Bitcoin And Ethereum Options Expiring Today

The expiring BTC options today have a notional value of $2.23 billion. According to Deribit's data, these 27,657 expiring Bitcoin options have a put-to-call ratio of 0.86. This ratio suggests a greater portion of purchase options (calls) compared to sales options (puts).

The data further indicates that the maximum pain point for these expiring options is at $81,000. In crypto options trading, the maximum pain point is the price at which most contracts will expire worthless, resulting in the asset causing the greatest financial loss for the majority of holders.

In addition to Bitcoin options, 183,468 Ethereum contracts are set to expire today. These expiring options have a notional value of $283.6 million and a put-to-call ratio of 0.92. The maximum pain point for ETH options is at $1,700.

Currently, both Bitcoin and Ethereum are trading below their respective maximum pain points. BTC is changing hands at around $80,622, while ETH is available for around $1,543.

"With recent market volatility and ongoing tariff developments, how do you think these expiries will impact price action?" Deribit asked.

Deribit is an options and futures exchange. Evidently, crypto markets have seen massive volatility from the trade war chaos following President Trump's tariffs. However, Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson says future tariffs will have no impact on crypto.

He believes that tariffs are already priced in and any future announcements will be a ‘dud’ for the crypto market.

As the call premium continues to fade until September, analysts at Deribit observe a shift in crypto options, with short-term dips still bringing put demand.

“You now have to look all the way to September before calls retake the skew. Traders might be bracing for extended weakness,” said the analysts at Deribit.

This suggests that traders are anticipating a prolonged period of weakness in the crypto market. A diminishing call premium, where the implied volatility (IV) of calls drops compared to puts, indicates that traders are less optimistic about price increases in the near to medium term.

Moreover, a negative or reverse volatility skew, like OTM (out-of-the-money) puts having higher IV than OTM calls, is commonly observed in equity markets when investors have a strong fear of price declines.

This pattern seems to be unfolding in the crypto options market, reflecting heightened concerns about downside risks.

Analysts at Greeks.live note that BTC's IV has declined significantly and is now largely holding at nearly 50% across all maturities. On the other hand, ETH's IV has remained at a higher level, with short to medium-term volatility remaining around 80%. This makes selling ETH options in the short term a favorable trade.

Global economic uncertainty, such as the US-China tariff dispute, has dampened risk appetite. Crypto's inherent volatility could also be fueling this cautious outlook.

“Sentiment was more panicky this week, with Trump’s frequent switching of tariff policies making the market extremely risk averse,” said the analysts at Greeks.live.

The analysts at Greeks.live agree with Deribit's view of extended weakness. However, they anticipate continued uncertainty and volatility in the market for a long time.

For traders, this calls for hedging strategies, such as buying puts or diversifying into stablecoins.

“Cryptocurrencies are currently suffering from a lack of new incoming money, a lack of new narratives, and a more subdued investor sentiment. In this worse market of bulls to bears, the probability of a black swan will be significantly higher, and buying some deep vanilla puts would be a good choice,” concluded the analysts at Greeks.live.