From carnival across the Internet to neglecting the house, this cryptocurrency that became popular with emoticons is experiencing a double-cold world.

Just three months ago, Dogecoin set a new record at the rate of 2.4 million new active addresses a day, but now this number has plummeted to 30,000, shrinking by as much as 95%.

在经历了前所未有的网络活跃度狂飙后，狗狗币正在迅速滑入冷清。

After experiencing unprecedented spike in network activity, Dogecoin is quickly sliding into deserted.

据Arcane Research数据，2024年11月21日，狗狗币单日新增活跃地址数达到129万。到2025年2月23日，这个数字已萎缩至3万，缩水幅度高达95%。

According to Arcane Research data, on November 21, 2024, the number of new active addresses added by Dogecoin in a single day reached 1.29 million. By February 23, 2025, this number had shrunk to 30,000, with a shrinkage of up to 95%.

更令人吃惊的是，狗狗と呼ばれるCRYPTOが12か月で80％下落。

The CRYPTO, known as the Dog Dog, fell 80% in 12 months.

4月中旬，DOGE价格跌至0.1977美元，与2月初入仕の時価格帯が0.4868美元を比べると、ほぼ2.5倍にものぼる。

In mid-April, DOGE is 0.1977 Mimoto, and when he first joined in February, the price range is 0.4868 Mimoto, it is almost 2.5 times higher.

一体何が、売得ために町衆

What the heck is the townspeople for selling

一、3致命的なシグナルが、ユーザーの流出をを示す

1, 3 Fatal signals indicate user leakage

1. 活発なアドレス数が急減

1. The number of active addresses suddenly decreases

链上数据追踪平台ChainOnalytics显示，2024年11月21日，狗狗币单日新增活跃地址数达到129万。随后更是一路飙升至240万。

On-chain data tracking platform ChainOnalytics shows that on November 21, 2024, the number of new active addresses added in Dogecoin in a single day reached 1.29 million. It then soared to 2.4 million.

然而这种繁荣只是昙花一现——到2025年2月23日，单日新增地址仅剩3万，相当于每天有237万用户"销声匿迹"。

However, this prosperity is just a flash in the pan - by February 23, 2025, there were only 30,000 new addresses in a single day, which is equivalent to 2.37 million users "disappearing" every day.

2. ビブロン持体構造が劇的に変化

2. The structure of the vibron holding a dramatic change

链上分析师Tomer Ben روشنایی：

链上分析师 memorium ben rom ractures:

"在2024年第三季度，长期持有者（持仓超过1年）比例还保持在30%以上，但现在已滑落至2.67%。与之形成鲜明对比的是，短期投机者比例在三个月内暴增107.45%，已超过70%。”

"In the third quarter of 2024, the proportion of long-term holders (holding positions for more than 1 year) remained above 30%, but has now fallen to 2.67%. In sharp contrast, the proportion of short-term speculators soared by 107.45% in three months, which has exceeded 70%.

3. 価格と活躍度が「死亡交叉」

3. Price and activity level are "death crossings"

当币价在2月中旬跌至0.196美元时，网络活跃度同步创下历史新低。

When the currency price fell to $0.196 in mid-February, network activity hit a record low.

这种价格与用户活跃度的双重坍塌，构成了加密货币领域最危险的"死亡交叉"模式。

This double collapse of price and user activity constitutes the most dangerous "death cross" model in the cryptocurrency field.

资深分析师Ali Martinez指出："当项目方无法维持用户参与度时，任何价格反弹都将是空中楼阁。

"When project parties cannot maintain user engagement, any price rebound will be a castle in the air," said senior analyst Ali Martinez.

二、雪崩背后的三致命原因

2. Three fatal reasons behind the avalanche

1. 应用场景缺失的必然反噬

1. The inevitable backlash of the lack of application scenarios

作为诞生于笑柄的"表情包币"，狗狗币始终缺乏真正的应用场景。

As the "Emoji Coin" born in the laughing stock, Dogecoin has always lacked real application scenarios.

虽然有SpaceX接受DOGE支付卫星发射费用、特斯拉周边商店短暂开通DOGE支付等事件刺激，但这些零星应用根本无法支撑起300亿美元的市值。

Although SpaceX has accepted the stimulus of DOGE paying for satellite launch fees and Tesla's surrounding stores temporarily launching DOGE payments, these sporadic applications simply cannot support the market value of US$30 billion.

2. コミュニティ共识が致命的なヒビ

2. Community Colloquiality is Fatal

核心开发团队在2023年宣布停止更新代码库，导致项目陷入"技术停滞"。

The core development team announced in 2023 that it would stop updating the code base, causing the project to fall into a "technical stagnation".

与此同时，社区内部对于是否转型智能合约平台产生严重分歧。

At the same time, there are serious differences within the community over whether to transform into a smart contract platform.

这种技术路线之争，直接动摇了持有者的长期信心。

This battle for technical routes directly shakes the holders' long-term confidence.

3. 掃討リスクと流動性危機がコインを直撃

3. Cleanup risk and liquidity crisis hits coins directly

美国SEC在2024年底将DOGE列入"未注册证券"观察名单，导致大量机构投资者撤离。

The US SEC included DOGE on the "Unregistered Securities" watch list at the end of 2024, resulting in a large number of institutional investors withdrawing.

更致命的是，PayPal突然宣布暂停DOGE交易服务，切断了最重要的法币入金通道。

What's even more fatal is that PayPal suddenly announced the suspension of DOGE trading services, cutting off the most important fiat currency deposit channel.

三、5ドルの奇跡は起こるのか？

Will a miracle of three or five dollars happen?

在普遍看衰的市场氛围中，CryptoELITES等机构却抛出惊人预测：狗狗币可能在未来冲击0.75美元、1.5美元甚至5美元。

In the general market atmosphere, CryptoELITES and other institutions have launched amazing predictions: Dogecoin may hit $0.75, $1.5 or even $5 in the future.

支撑这种乐观预期的三大理由是：

The three main reasons for this optimistic expectation are:

① 历史周期中的"弹簧效应"

① "Spring Effect" in the Historical Period

狗狗币曾经历过7次跌幅超过80%的崩盘，但每次都实现超跌反弹。

Dogecoin has experienced a collapse of more than 80% in seven times, but it has achieved an oversold rebound every time.

2021年的奇迹就是从0.002美元暴涨至0.74美元，涨幅高达370倍。

The miracle in 2021 is to soar from US$0.002 to US$0.74, an increase of up to 370 times.

这种极端波动性吸引着嗜（shi）险（kuan）的投机资金。

This extreme volatility attracts speculative funds that are tempted by insurance.

② 馬斯克はまだ効果を発揮できる

② Masuka can still be effective

特斯拉已暂停使用DOGE支付，但SpaceX目前正在使用DOGE支付部分卫星服务。

Tesla has suspended DOGE payments, but SpaceX is currently using DOGE payments to some satellite services.

更关键的是，马斯克旗下xAI项目近日被曝正在开发基于区块链的AI训练平台，而狗狗币可能是Gas代币。

More importantly, Musk's xAI project has been recently revealed to be developing an AI training platform based on blockchain, and Dogecoin may be a Gas token.

③ 交易量が物語る

③ The amount of trade tells

尽管价格低迷，但DOGE日交易量始终维持在10亿美元以上，远远超过大多数主流代币。

Despite the sluggish price, DOGE's daily trading volume has always remained above $1 billion, far exceeding most mainstream tokens.

同时，在衍生品市场，DOGE永续合约持仓量在过去三个月内逆势增长了23%，这也显示出大资金正在悄悄布局。

At the same time, in the derivatives market, DOGE's perpetual contract holdings have increased by 23% against the trend in the past three months, which also shows that large funds are quietly deploying.

四、売得ために町衆

Four, townspeople for sale

狗狗币的戏剧性走势，本质上是整个加密货币市场的缩影。

Dogecoin’s dramatic trend is essentially a microcosm of the entire cryptocurrency market.

在比特币ETF通过和灰

The Bitcoin ETF passes and grey