Can BRICS Win from Trump's Tariffs?

The global economic landscape is continuously shifting, and one of the latest disruptions comes from former U.S. President Donald Trump's imposition of tariffs

The global economic landscape is in a state of flux, with one of the latest disruptions coming from former U.S. President Donald Trump’s imposition of tariffs, including a 10% baseline tariff effective from April 9.

These tariffs could have far-reaching consequences for countries within the BRICS bloc (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa). As the world’s second-largest economy, China, and other BRICS nations grapple with the effects of these tariffs, the question arises: Can BRICS emerge victorious from Trump’s tariff policies?

Trump’s tariffs, particularly those targeting imports from China, have been a significant point of contention in international trade. His “America First” approach led to a trade war, especially with China, which is a major U.S. trade partner. These tariffs were designed to curb China’s trade surplus with the U.S. and encourage more domestic production in the United States. However, as the tariffs spread to other regions, the BRICS nations found themselves in the spotlight as potential losers in the global trade battle.

For China, Trump’s tariffs have directly impacted its exports to the U.S. This means that China may need to shift its trade focus to other markets. However, this has opened up opportunities for BRICS nations in terms of forging deeper trade relations within the group and with emerging markets. With the shift in global supply chains, there is potential for BRICS nations to capitalize on this disruption.

One of the key advantages that BRICS could gain from Trump’s tariffs is the potential for deeper economic integration within the bloc. Historically, BRICS countries have sought to strengthen their economic ties and reduce dependency on the West. With Trump’s tariffs limiting trade between the U.S. and China, countries within the BRICS group could step in to fill the void by enhancing intra-BRICS trade. This could lead to a more resilient, diversified economy for these nations, less reliant on the U.S. and Europe.

BRICS nations could also benefit from the diversification of supply chains. The trade war initiated by Trump has caused many countries to reconsider their reliance on China and the U.S. for manufacturing and supply chains. BRICS countries, especially India, Brazil, and South Africa, could benefit from this shift. India, for instance, has the potential to attract more manufacturing businesses as companies look for alternatives to China. Brazil could see a boost in its agricultural exports to countries that were previously reliant on Chinese imports. South Africa, with its abundant resources, might emerge as an important player in the global supply chain.

Moreover, Trump’s tariffs have sparked frustration among other nations in the developing world who feel disadvantaged by U.S. trade policies. As a result, BRICS nations, particularly Brazil, Russia, and India, might find themselves in a better position to cultivate diplomatic and economic ties with these frustrated nations. Through initiatives like the New Development Bank (NDB), BRICS could leverage its collective influence to forge stronger partnerships with developing countries, offering them an alternative to Western-dominated financial institutions.

Another interesting development to watch is BRICS’s push for a new global reserve currency. One of the more ambitious long-term goals of BRICS is to challenge the dominance of the U.S. dollar in global trade and finance. With the U.S. imposing tariffs and shifting towards a more protectionist stance, BRICS could accelerate efforts to diversify the global reserve currency system. The idea of creating a BRICS-backed currency or increasing the use of the Chinese yuan in global trade could gain momentum in the coming years. Countries outside the bloc may view this as a viable alternative to U.S. economic hegemony.

However, despite these opportunities, the BRICS nations face several hurdles in fully capitalizing on Trump’s tariffs.

Some BRICS nations, like Brazil and South Africa, face political instability, which could undermine their ability to attract investment and maintain steady economic growth. Political uncertainty could hinder the ability of these nations to implement necessary reforms and take full advantage of the shifting global trade patterns.

Several BRICS nations, particularly Brazil, Russia, and South Africa, remain heavily dependent on commodity exports like oil, metals, and agricultural products. While these exports may see demand increases, price volatility could undermine the long-term benefits of tariff-induced shifts in global trade patterns. For these nations, diversifying their economies away from commodity reliance remains a major challenge.

BRICS countries have very different economic structures, which means they may struggle to form a cohesive, unified economic strategy. China, with its advanced manufacturing base, is significantly different from India and Brazil, which rely more on services and agriculture. This economic disparity could limit the effectiveness of any collective action or economic policy among the group.

Overall, while Trump’s tariffs may have initially posed significant risks for BRICS nations, these countries have the potential to turn this challenge into an opportunity. By increasing intra-BRICS trade, diversifying supply