Bitcoin Will Be the Winner No Matter the Outcome of Trump's Tariff Strategy, Says Bitwise Strategist

Head of Alpha Strategies at Bitwise, Jeffrey Park, has said that Trump's tariff-triggered trade turmoil will almost certainly be very good for Bitcoin in the long term.

Head of Alpha Strategies at Bitwise, Jeffrey Park, has claimed that Trump’s tariff-fueled trade turmoil will ultimately be very good for Bitcoin in the long term.

Writing on the Bitwise blog yesterday, Park stated that Trump’s economic strategy has created a scenario where “heads Bitcoin wins, tails fiat loses”, adding that “either way, we go higher”.

Park believes that Trump’s tariff strategy is all about getting America’s major trading partners to the negotiating table with the ultimate aim of reducing the value of the US dollar — perhaps by getting countries to sell off some of their US dollar reserves — without increasing long term interest rates.

If this strategy works, claims Park, the lowered interest rates would likely increase investor appetites for higher-risk assets, like Bitcoin. This is the ‘Bitcoin wins’ scenario.

If Trump’s strategy backfires — the ‘fiat loses scenario’ — Park argues that would lead to money printing on a scale never before seen in the US. And historically, large-scale money printing has seen Bitcoin’s price increase.

Trump Is Seeking “Holy Grail of Fiat Alchemy”, Says Park

Park outlines two main points which underlie his argument that Trump’s tariff strategy is good for Bitcoin no matter how it plays out — the first is ‘The Triffin Dilemma’ and the second is Trump’s long term goals.

‘The Triffin Dilemma’ refers to a dilemma first described by the Belgian-American economist, Robert Triffin. It says that the US dollar being the global reserve asset provides significant positives and negatives for the US economy — the main positive being the US can borrow at lower rates because there’s always a ready supply of buyers for its debt.

On the negative side, the US dollar is structurally over-valued because nations need to hold it in reserve and the US tends to run permanent trade deficits in order to ensure the world has enough US dollars in reserve.

So what are Trump’s long term goals? Well according to Park, his number one priority is to lower the US 10-year treasury rate. Why? Because, according to Park, this will be very good for Trump’s personal real estate portfolio. At least he seems to understand how Trump thinks.

Effectively, through his threats of tariffs, Trump is seeking to devalue the US dollar and get rid of US trade deficits, while at the same time driving down the 10-year treasury rate even further. As Park tweeted “the US is charting a path to achieve the holy grail of fiat alchemy: lower dollar and lower yield.”

Park: Sustained Tariff War “Amazing” For Bitcoin

Something like this has been tried before. In 1985 the US threatened tariffs against many of its major trading partners, including West Germany, France, the UK, and Japan in order to get them to cooperate in a scheme known as ‘The Plaza Accord’ to intentionally devalue the US dollar in order to prop up US manufacturing.

If Trump is able to achieve something like a ‘Plaza Accord 2.0’ Park said Bitcoin would be very well positioned, explaining:

“And if he fails? Bitcoin will still be in a great position.”

On X / Twitter, Park summarised his view making some extremely bullish noises: