Bitcoin trading volume surges as Turkey's lira plunges to all-time low amid turmoil

On March 19, Ekrem Imamoglu, the mayor of Istanbul and a rival of President Erdogan, was arrested, causing panic among local investors.

A snapshot of the data from Binance shows that the trading volume of Bitcoin -lira (BTC/TRY) surged

On March 19, affected by the domestic turmoil, the exchange rate of Turkish lira (TRY) against the US dollar (USD) fell to a historical low of 41 lira to 1 US dollar, a single-day depreciation of nearly 10%.

The direct consequence of the exchange rate plunge was a wave of capital aversion in the crypto market, and the trading volume of Bitcoin-Lira (BTC/TRY) on the Binance platform soared. From 15:00 to 16:00 on March 19, the trading volume of the trading pair reached 93 BTC, the highest level in at least a year. At the same time, partly due to the influence of US macroeconomic policies, the price of Bitcoin also saw a significant increase during this period. As of 8 am on March 20, BTC broke through $87,000, with a daily increase of 2.78%. Some market analysts also believe that Turkey's trading demand stimulated the rise of BTC/USD.

After that, Strategy founder Michael Saylor even posted a chart of the lira’s depreciation on the social media platform X, calling for “trying Bitcoin”, further promoting the market’s attention to BTC as a value storage tool.

Against the backdrop of the sharp depreciation of the Turkish lira, investors are rapidly turning to Bitcoin and stablecoins to seek a more stable way to store value. This is not an isolated case. Looking back over the past five years, whenever Turkey experienced a currency crisis, the trading volume of Bitcoin and stablecoins in the country mostly showed a surge, which highlights the hedging role of cryptocurrencies as a "safe haven" in countries with unstable currencies.

How has BTC/TRY volume and Bitcoin performed as the Turkish Lira fell over the past 5 years?

The Turkish lira has experienced several significant declines against the U.S. dollar in recent years.

2020: Global epidemic impact and policy mistakes, the lira fell below 7 to 1 dollar

In 2020, the outbreak of the global COVID-19 pandemic had a severe impact on emerging market economies. Turkey's foreign exchange reserves fell rapidly, and the Erdogan government insisted on a low interest rate policy, exacerbating capital outflows. At the end of July, the lira fell below the 7:1 mark against the US dollar. Binance data shows that the daily trading volume of BTC/TRY has increased from 43.79 BTC on July 21 to 60.33 BTC on August 21. By November 7, the lira fell further to 8.43:1 against the US dollar. This year, the cumulative depreciation of the lira throughout the year was close to 26%.

Bitcoin performed well in 2020, climbing from $7,194 at the beginning of the year to $28,990 at the end of the year, with an annual increase of 303%. Although the "3.12 crash" on March 12 caused BTC to fall to a low of $4,106, the subsequent strong rebound once again proved the potential of Bitcoin as an anti-inflation asset.

2021: Central bank turmoil intensifies, lira plunges 17% in a single day

In 2021, Turkey's financial market fell into a crisis of confidence. On March 20, the central bank governor Naci Agbal was suddenly dismissed, causing panic in the market. On March 22, the lira plummeted nearly 17% against the US dollar in a single day, falling to 8.4:1. From then until April 13, Binance BTC/TRY daily trading volume was on an upward trend. During the same period, Google search data showed that Bitcoin searches in Turkey soared by 566%, showing a surge in market demand for BTC as a safe haven. In terms of Bitcoin, the global price of Bitcoin did not rise significantly in March.

On November 23, 2021, Erdogan defended the interest rate cut policy and rejected the orthodox interest rate hike to deal with inflation. Turkey's inflation rate is close to 20%. On November 23, the lira fell by more than 15% in a single day, and fell below 12 to 1 US dollar at the end of November. On November 24, the daily trading volume of BTC/TRY soared to 873.52 BTC.

However, after the lira plummeted this time, Bitcoin did not rise significantly in the global market (BTC/USD) in the short term, and even fell from late November to early December.

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