Bitcoin Prints Bullish Reversal Signal, But Short-Term Risks Loom

Bitcoin kicked off the week with strength, testing overhead resistance twice and printing a long-awaited TBO Close Short on the daily timeframe.

Bitcoin kicked off the week with strength, testing overhead resistance twice and managing to print a TBO Close Short on the daily chart.

This long-awaited signal is typically a good indicator of a shift in the market structure. It occurs when the Close Short price point is crossed by the Optimal Point 3 times on the same timeframe.

Usually, this signals the end of prolonged consolidation phases, and the current price action suggests the same shift could be unfolding.

Chart: TradingView

Daily volume is outpacing its 30-day average, On-Balance Volume is trending higher, and RSI continues to pressure resistance—all classic ingredients for a bullish breakout.

BTC also sits inside the daily TBO Cloud, signaling long-term strength.

However, there are clear short-term concerns. A TBT Bearish Divergence appeared on the 4-hour chart, the same signal that preceded the sharp drop from $88,000 to $74,000 in April.

Additionally, a TBT Stop Loss Hunting alert fired yesterday, which frequently, though not always, foreshadows sudden bearish price action.

These two warnings, paired with BTC’s inability to pierce daily resistance and RSI’s failure to break above its long-term trendline, suggest a short-term correction may be imminent.

A -4% to -5% dip to the $81,000–$82,000 range appears likely, especially considering confluence at key Fibonacci retracement levels.

Dominance Metrics Suggest Altcoins Will Struggle in a Pullback

If BTC does retrace, stablecoin dominance is expected to rise back toward resistance at 8.22%, while Bitcoin dominance is likely to continue climbing.

Despite lower highs forming on daily RSI for BTC.D, price strength suggests altcoins will lag. Top 10 Dominance will likely fall alongside BTC, while OTHERS.D remains in recovery mode following its recent drop.

Given the known multiple factor effect—where altcoins react with greater volatility than BTC—a pullback in Bitcoin will disproportionately impact the broader altcoin market.

The total crypto market cap is still consolidating inside the daily TBO Cloud after breaking its first resistance fan line. While this is a positive signal, a BTC correction would drag TOTAL back down. The OTHERS chart continues to look weak, holding below the daily TBO Cloud and confirming its bearish bias. This reinforces the likelihood that altcoins will react more violently than Bitcoin during any near-term drawdown.

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