Bitcoin Price Remained on Edge as Polymarket Data Showed that Odds of Donald Trump Launching a Strategic BTC Reserve Fell

BTC retreated to $96000, down from this week's high of near $100000.

Bitcoin (BTC) price remained on edge on January 19 as Polymarket data showed that the odds of Donald Trump launching a Strategic BTC reserve have fallen. As a result, BTC price dropped to $96,000, down from this week’s high of nearly $100,000.

The odds of Trump launching a strategic Bitcoin Reserves in the first 100 days of his presidency dropped in Polymarket. In a poll with over $1.5 million in assets, these odds dropped to 31%, down from over 60% in November.

Trump has vowed to be the most pro-crypto president ever as he positions the US to be the leader in the industry. He has already named Paul Atkins to be the next head of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

The US president has also started to create the first crypto council, an effort led by a prominent technology investor at Craft Ventures. The investor has experience working at several crypto projects, including Bitwise, Trellis, and Affirm. Most notably, he founded World Liberty Financial, an upcoming crypto project.

In December, Trump expressed some support to a strategic Bitcoin Reserve, by converting the US hoard of coins. Data by BitcoinTreasuries shows that the US holds 198,109 coins valued at over $18 billion, which it can convert into these reserves.

A move by the US to create a Bitcoin reserve would push other countries to do the same. China already owns 190,000 coins, while the UK, Ukraine, Bhutan, and El Salvador already own thousands of coins.

Such a move would also lead to a scramble for the already dwindling Bitcoins. CoinGlass data shows that Bitcoin balances in exchanges has continued falling and now sits near the lowest level in years.

Bitcoin has a supply limit of 21 million, and 19.8 million have already been mined. This means that only 1.2 million coins will ever be mined. Therefore, with difficulty rising, the coin will likely rise in the long term.

Bitcoin price analysis

The daily chart shows that the BTC price peaked at $108.230 in December and has now dropped to $96,000. It has moved below the lower side of the ascending channel and formed what looks like a bearish flag pattern.

On the positive side, the coin has remained above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average, meaning that the uptrend is still intact.

However, there is also a risk that the coin will crash to the support at $74,000, the upper side in March and then resume the uptrend.