The bitcoin market enters a crucial day with the expiration of $16.5 billion in options

With an exceptional amount of $16.5 billion in Bitcoin options set to expire, investors find themselves in a complex situation.

The bitcoin market is entering a crucial day with the expiration of $16.5 billion in options, a record that could shape its short-term trajectory.

While a move toward $90,000 seemed likely, an unexpected pullback has weakened bullish positions, offering sellers a strategic opportunity. In this battle between buyers and sellers, the outcome will depend on price movements in the coming hours, with potential impact far beyond this single deadline. The market is holding its breath, ready to flip in one direction or the other.

A Bitcoin Options Expiration Under High Tension

With an exceptional amount of $16.5 billion in Bitcoin options set to expire today, investors are facing a decisive moment that could have significant implications for the cryptocurrency's short-term trends.

Among these options, a majority (74%) are traded on Deribit, the leading platform in the BTC options market, followed by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) and Binance, which hold smaller market shares.

Of the $13 billion in open positions on Deribit, $9 billion are call options, granting the right to buy bitcoin at a predetermined price, and $4 billion are put options, which provide the right to sell bitcoin at a specific price.

If bitcoin does not surpass the $90,000 threshold, a majority of these contracts will become worthless. Conversely, short sellers can take advantage of this pressure to strengthen their position.

To maximize their gains, bullish investors must push bitcoin beyond $90,000. At this level, they would benefit from a significant advantage, with a favorable gap of $3 billion between call and put options.

However, conversely, bearish traders seek to drive the price below $84,000, which would strengthen the value of the put options at stake.

The scenarios considered are clear:

The behavior of traders in the coming hours will thus be decisive for the short-term direction of bitcoin.

A Market Influenced by External Factors

The price of bitcoin remains heavily influenced by global economic trends. Indeed, the persistent correlation with the S&P 500 (above 70 % since early March) illustrates how much crypto is still perceived as a risky asset. The uncertainty surrounding monetary policies and international economic tensions weighs on investor morale.

Some, however, hope for a gradual decoupling, driven by increasing institutional adoption. GameStop, Rumble, Metaplanet, and Semler Scientific have invested heavily in bitcoin, reinforcing its position as an alternative store of value. This phenomenon could, in the long term, change the balance of forces in the market, but the short-term impact remains uncertain.

The expiration of options today could serve as a catalyst for a more pronounced price movement in the coming days. If bitcoin surpasses $90,000, it could trigger a bullish momentum for April, especially in the event of a resurgence of inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs. Conversely, a break below $84,000 would reinforce bearish positions and could exacerbate the correction.

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Diplômé de Sciences Po Toulouse et titulaire d'une certification consultant blockchain délivrée par Alyra, j'ai rejoint l'aventure Cointribune en 2019. Convaincu du potentiel de la blockchain pour transformer de nombreux secteurs de l'économie, j'ai pris l'engagement de sensibiliser et d'informer le grand public sur cet écosystème en constante évolution. Mon objectif est de permettre à chacun de mieux comprendre la blockchain et de saisir les opportunités qu'elle offre. J'essaye chaque jour de fournir une analyse objective de l'actualité, de décrypter les tendances du marché, de relayer les dernières innovations technologiques et de mettre en perspective les enjeux économiques et sociétaux de cette révolution en marche.