Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) See Capital Outflows into Stablecoins, No Signs of Altseason Yet

According to Ali Martinez, capital is continuing to flow out of Bitcoin and Ethereum into stablecoins, with no clear signs of an upcoming altseason.

On-chain data suggests that capital is flowing out of Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) into stablecoins, with no clear signs of an upcoming altseason yet.

According to on-chain data analyst Ali Martinez, capital is continuing to flow out of Bitcoin and Ethereum into stablecoins. He also noted that there are “no signs of altseason yet.”

Capital continues to flow out of #Bitcoin and #Ethereum into stablecoins.

No signs of altseason yet!

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The chart accompanying Martinez's statement shows a clear trend of declining capital inflows into both Bitcoin and Ethereum, while stablecoins have seen a historically large increase in net capital change.

Specifically, as of Feb. 4, Bitcoin had a net capital change of $0.0412 million, and Ethereum saw $0.0048 million. In contrast, stablecoins experienced a much larger shift, with a net capital change of $0.0644 million. This suggests that investors are currently favoring safer assets, likely waiting for better entry points before making their next move.

Historically, capital rotations from Bitcoin into smaller-cap coins have signaled the start of an altcoin season. According to CoinMarketCap, the altcoin season is typically marked by 75% of the top 100 cryptos (excluding stablecoins and asset-backed tokens) outperforming Bitcoin over the last 90 days. At this time, however, the CoinMarketCap index stands at just 33.

Martinez's chart also shows that the oscillator indicators remain in a neutral position, showing no evidence of a brewing altseason.

Another on-chain analyst, Deutscher, shared his own thoughts on why this cycle is different as far as the arrival of altseason is concerned. He explained that instead of moving into established altcoins, traders have been chasing fast-moving low-cap on-chain tokens. As a result, that speculative capital “got stuck in illiquid on-chain meme coins,” he said in his post on Feb. 5.

The launch of Pump Fun is directly correlated to the destruction of the altcoin market vs $BTC.

The reason we've seen no major "alt season" across majors, is because the speculative capital that would've once poured into top 200 assets, instead decided to jump the gun and…

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According to Deutscher, the launch of Pump Fun, a decentralized application that enables users to quickly pump and dump on-chain tokens, has played a significant role in this dynamic. He highlighted that the fast-moving low-cap on-chain tokens are usually the "first to die" in any bear market.

However, this time around, those tokens are "still up huge" relative to the broader market, which suggests that the speculative capital is still present in the market but is simply not flowing into the smaller-cap altcoins.