Bitcoin (BTC) breaches rising support trendline against gold (XAU), signaling the end of the 12-year bull run

BTC/XAU ratio breakdown could spell the end of Bitcoin's 12-year bull run if it stays under the gold trendline for even a week or—worse—a month.

Bitcoin (BTC) breached a rising support trendline against gold (XAU), which has been intact for over 12 years, on March 14.

XAU/BTC ratio weekly performance chart. Source: TradingView/NorthStar

Popular analyst NorthStar says this breakdown could spell the end of Bitcoin's 12-year bull run if it stays under the gold trendline for even a week or—worse—a month.

Is Bitcoin's bull market over? Let's take a closer look at BTC's correlation with gold.

Gold hits new record high as Bitcoin's uptrend cools

The BTC/XAU ratio breakdown occurred as spot gold rates hit a new record high above $3,000 per ounce on March 14, after rising by about 12.80% year-to-date.

In contrast, Bitcoin, which is often called "digital gold," has dropped by 11% so far in 2025.BTC/USD vs. XAU/USD YTD performance chart. Source: TradingView

The performances reflect the contrasting net flows into US-based spot exchange-traded funds (ETF) tracking Bitcoin and gold.

For instance, as of March 14, the US-based spot gold ETFs had collectively attracted over $6.48 billion YTD, according to data resource World Gold Council. Globally, gold ETFs have seen $23.18 billion in inflows.Gold ETFs weekly holdings by region. Source: GoldHub.com

On the other hand, US-based spot Bitcoin ETFs saw nearly $1.46 billion in outflows YTD, according to onchain data platform Glassnode.

US Bitcoin ETFs year-to-de