(Arweave) Arthur Hayes: Bitcoin (BTC) Is Primed to Experience a Deep Drawdown Before Hitting a New All-Time High Later in the Year

In a new blog post, Hayes says that the “more likely” path forward for Bitcoin is to drop by up to 32% from the current level before a massive rally.

According to BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes, Bitcoin (BTC) is likely to experience a deep drawdown before reaching a new all-time high later this year.

Hayes stated in a recent blog post that the “more probable” scenario for Bitcoin is a drop of up to 32% from its current level before a substantial rally.

“I don’t think this bull cycle is over, but looking ahead, I think we’re more likely to see Bitcoin drop to $70,000-$75,000 and then hit $250,000 by year-end than to see it continue climbing with no major pullback.”

Hayes stated that after being bullish earlier this year, his “excitement has vanished” due to bearish signals from the macroeconomic environment and the crypto industry.

“Subtle shifts in central bank balance sheet levels, the rate of banking credit expansion, the relationship between the US 10-yr treasury/stocks/Bitcoin prices, and the狂野Official Trump (TRUMP) memecoin price action gave me a gut feeling. It’s similar to what I felt in late 2021, right before the crypto markets crashed.”

Another factor contributing to the BitMEX co-founder’s change in sentiment is the slowing rate of money supply increase in the world’s first, second, and fourth-largest economies.

“A pullback of this magnitude would be brutal because the level of bullishness right now is so high. Trump keeps saying the right things with these executive orders, whether it’s boosting sentiment by pardoning Ross Ulbricht or stoking the degen crypto spirits with his recent memecoin launch. However, the slowdown in dirty fiat creation in Pax Americana, China, and Japan is not being fully appreciated.”

Bitcoin is currently trading at $102,555.

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