XRP 技术分析强调下降趋势和低于 1 美元的强劲阻力

XRP 2024 年 4 月的技术分析揭示了类似对称三角形或三角旗的六年盘整模式，表明潜在的突破或崩溃。相对强弱指数（RSI）表现出看跌势头，高点较低，表明趋势减弱。自 2017 年以来成交量下降（三角旗形态的一个特征）可能表明市场预期随着 XRP 接近三角形顶点，价格将出现重大波动。虽然看涨突破或看跌突破都是可能的，但这两种情况都需要成交量和其他指标的确认。

Key Takeaways

要点

• XRP in April 2024 is trading into a symmetrical triangle six-year chart pattern apex, better known as a pennant or symmetrical triangle, and indicates a balanced probability of either a bullish breakout or a bearish breakdown.
• Since 2018, the XRP price has been making higher lows while the RSI shows lower highs, suggesting bearish momentum or weakening momentum that could lead to downward price movements.
• Since 2018, the XRP trading volume has been consistently decreasing since 2017, which could impact the strength and reliability of any potential price breakout or breakdown.
• XRP is down 83% from its (all-time-high) ATH in 2018 of $3.20 and is at $0.50 in April 2024.

The Ripple token XRP has impressively and consistently been in the top 10 by market cap for a decade due to its proclaimed, fast transaction speeds and adoption in the banking sector. XRP has long been a focal point in cryptocurrency discussions, with debates on whether it represents a valuable project or a scam.

2024 年 4 月，XRP 交易进入对称三角形六年图表模式顶点，即三角旗或对称三角形，表明看涨突破或看跌突破的平衡概率。自 2018 年以来，XRP 价格一直在上涨较高的低点，而 RSI 显示较低的高点，表明看跌势头或势头减弱，可能导致价格下跌。自 2018 年以来，XRP 交易量自 2017 年以来一直持续下降，这可能会影响任何潜在价格突破或的强度和可靠性XRP 较 2018 年的（历史最高）ATH 3.20 美元下跌了 83%，到 2024 年 4 月为 0.50 美元。Ripple 代币 XRP 十年来一直稳居市值前 10 名，原因是其宣称的快速交易速度和银行业的采用。 XRP 长期以来一直是加密货币讨论的焦点，人们争论它是否代表一个有价值的项目还是一个骗局。

XRP Versus USD: Technical Analysis Insights

This three part article will explain XRP’s potential future performance against the United States dollar (USD) and Bitcoin (BTC) using technical analysis. 

XRP 与美元：技术分析见解这篇由三部分组成的文章将使用技术分析来解释 XRP 相对于美元 (USD) 和比特币 (BTC) 的潜在未来表现。

The analysis seeks to determine if the XRP price will increase between $3 to $100 (bull case) or stay within a range from $0.20 to $1 (bear case), with its price at $0.50 in April 2024, during forthcoming market cycles. Additionally, this analysis will assess XRP’s comparative performance against BTC.

该分析旨在确定在即将到来的市场周期中，XRP 价格是否会上涨 3 美元至 100 美元（牛市）或保持在 0.20 美元至 1 美元（熊市）的范围内（2024 年 4 月其价格为 0.50 美元）。此外，该分析还将评估 XRP 与 BTC 的比较表现。

XRP Versus USD: Pennant Chart Pattern

The monthly chart pattern of XRP/USD reveals a long-term consolidation pattern of six years, with the cryptocurrency trading within a symmetrical triangle or pennant structure since its peak in 2018, demonstrating periods of lower highs and higher lows. 

XRP 与美元：三角旗图表模式 XRP/USD 的月度图表模式揭示了六年的长期盘整模式，自 2018 年达到顶峰以来，加密货币交易处于对称三角形或三角旗结构内，显示出高点较低和低点较高的时期。

The chart pattern illustrated below signals that there is uncertainty amongst both bear and bull traders about the future direction of XRP.

下面所示的图表模式表明，熊市和牛市交易者对 XRP 的未来方向都存在不确定性。

In April 2024, XRP is beginning to approach the apex of the symmetrical triangle, and a breakout or breakdown appears likely, signaling a decision point that could result in a substantial price movement in either direction. As per the triangle, a move in either direction is expected around September 2024 or quarter four of 2024.

2024 年 4 月，XRP 开始接近对称三角形的顶点，并且可能出现突破或击穿，这标志着一个决策点，可能会导致价格朝任一方向大幅波动。根据三角形，预计 2024 年 9 月或 2024 年第四季度左右将朝任一方向移动。

The first monthly chart pattern illustrated above, between 2012 and 2016, resembles a symmetrical triangle or a pennant also, which eventually broke out to a new all-time high (ATH) of $3.20 in 2018. However, since 2018, the price of XRP has not reached or come close to 2018 highs, marking lower highs and suggesting a prolonged period of consolidation without a bullish reversal to new highs. 

XRP/USD – 2024 年 4 月上面所示的 2012 年至 2016 年期间的第一个月度图表模式也类似于对称三角形或三角旗，最终在 2018 年突破至 3.20 美元的历史新高 (ATH)。然而，自 2018 年以来，XRP 的价格尚未达到或接近 2018 年高点，标志着较低的高点，并表明长期盘整期不会看涨逆转至新高。

Despite these lower highs, XRP has recorded higher lows during this period. 

尽管高点较低，XRP 在此期间仍录得较高的低点。

As shown above, the value of XRP has decreased by 83% over the past six years from its ATH between 2018 and 2024. This means that a purchase of $100 at $3.20, in the 2018 peak, can be sold for circa $17 today.

如上所示，XRP 的价值在过去六年中较 2018 年至 2024 年的 ATH 下降了 83%。这意味着在 2018 年峰值时以 3.20 美元的价格购买 100 美元，今天可以以大约 17 美元的价格出售。

The above chart scenario analysis presents two possibilities: 

XRP/USD – 自 2018 年以来下跌 83% 上述图表情景分析提出了两种可能性：

• A Bullish breakout: The pennant may break out and retest previous highs, and then break above 2018 highs of $3, and move into price discovery mode.
• A Bearish continuation: A downtrend in price at the apex of the triangle possibly printing lows of $0.20 cents or ranging to a $1 area, on a dead cat bounce and falling back down afterwards.
• Time horizon: The chart suggests that by quarter four of 2024, XRP versus USD will likely indicate whether it will break to the upside or downside

Both bull and bear cases may be argued, given the 2012-2016 chart pattern’s similarity to the current monthly chart pattern. 

看涨突破：三角旗可能突破并重新测试之前的高点，然后突破 3 美元的 2018 年高点，进入价格发现模式。看跌延续：三角形顶点的价格下降趋势可能会创下 0.20 美分的低点或者在 1 美元区域徘徊，死猫反弹，然后回落。 时间范围：图表显示，到 2024 年第四季度，XRP 兑美元可能会表明它会向上还是向下突破牛市和熊市情况考虑到 2012-2016 年图表模式与当前月度图表模式的相似性，这一点可能会存在争议。

The bull case for XRP in 2024 suggests that the XRP price will move upwards as XRP did in 2017-2018. A fractal of this move is illustrated below and can be seen that XRP may reach as high as $100 (extremely and highly unlikely). The bear case is that XRP will break down from the pennant or experience a dead cat bounce followed by more declines. The below chart is a representation of the two possible outcomes that likely follows pennant structures.

2024 年 XRP 的牛市表明，XRP 价格将像 2017-2018 年 XRP 一样上涨。这一走势的分形如下图所示，可以看出 XRP 可能高达 100 美元（极不可能）。看跌的情况是，XRP 将从三角旗形中突破，或者经历死猫反弹，然后出现更多下跌。下图展示了三角旗结构可能出现的两种可能结果。

Pennant Volume Drop: XRP Volume Since 2017

To decide whether XRP will break out or break down in the coming months, we can also refer to the XRP volume. Volume usually diminishes as the pennant chart pattern develops due to decreased trading activity during consolidation. 

牛市与熊市三角旗来源 BapitalPennant 成交量下降：2017 年以来的 XRP 成交量要决定未来几个月 XRP 是否会突破或下跌，我们还可以参考 XRP 成交量。由于盘整期间交易活动减少，随着三角旗图形态的发展，成交量通常会减少。

A key characteristic of a true pennant is a significant drop in volume during its formation followed by a noticeable increase on the breakout.

真正的三角旗的一个关键特征是在其形成过程中成交量显着下降，随后突破时成交量显着增加。

• Breakout: The breakout typically occurs in the direction of the prevailing trend and should happen before the pattern reaches the triangle’s apex. A pennant that takes too long to form or does not break out before reaching the apex can lose its significance.
• Confirmation: A breakout should be confirmed with an expansion in volume, which adds validity to the breakout. Some traders may look for a close outside the pennant or a two-candle close outside the formation for extra confirmation.

Above depicts a consistent decrease in volume over a six year period for XRP which can have several interpretations, especially in the context of a symmetrical triangle chart pattern approaching its apex:

突破：突破通常发生在主要趋势的方向上，并且应该发生在形态到达三角形顶点之前。如果三角旗形成时间太长，或者在到达顶点之前没有突破，就会失去其意义。 确认：突破应该通过交易量的扩大来确认，这增加了突破的有效性。一些交易者可能会寻找三角旗形外的收盘价或形态外两根蜡烛的收盘价以进行额外确认。 上面的 XRP/USD 交易量描述了 XRP 在六年内交易量的持续下降，这可以有多种解释，特别是在这种情况下接近其顶点的对称三角形图表模式：

• Consolidation phase: The declining volume reflects a prolonged consolidation phase, often with diminished trading interest as the market awaits a new catalyst or direction.
• Indecision among traders: Lower volumes indicate less trading activity, which suggests that traders are unsure about the future direction of XRP and are waiting on the sidelines.
• Upcoming Pennant/Triangle Apex: As the apex of the triangle nears, projected to be around September 2024, the market may be expecting a significant move in any direction. 
• Market Cycle: A long period of declining volume typically indicates the end of a cycle and the potential for the start of a new one.

Given these factors, the declining volume 153 odd days before the apex could suggest that the market is compressing and that traders should be prepared for increased volatility as the apex of the triangle is reached.

盘整阶段：交易量下降反映了盘整阶段的延长，通常随着市场等待新的催化剂或方向而导致交易兴趣下降。交易者犹豫不决：交易量下降表明交易活动减少，这表明交易者对 XRP 的未来方向不确定即将到来的三角旗/三角形顶点：随着三角形顶点的临近（预计将在 2024 年 9 月左右），市场可能预计会朝任何方向发生重大变动。市场周期：成交量长期下降通常表明一个周期的结束和新周期开始的可能性。考虑到这些因素，在见顶前 153 个奇日成交量下降可能表明市场正在压缩，交易者可能认为市场正在收缩。当到达三角形的顶点时，应该为波动性增加做好准备。

RSI Complex Divergence: Long Term RSI Of XRP/USD

The RSI (Relative Strength Index), a momentum oscillator, identifies overbought conditions above 70 and oversold conditions below 30. In the below chart, the monthly RSI spanning six years is neither overbought nor is it oversold but exhibits a type of bearish divergence where the price of XRP is making higher lows, and the RSI forms lower highs and lower lows, suggesting weakening momentum that could lead to a more potential downside.

RSI 复杂背离：XRP/USD 的长期 RSI RSI（相对强弱指数）是一种动量震荡指标，识别高于 70 的超买条件和低于 30 的超卖条件。在下图中，跨越六年的每月 RSI 既不是超买也不是超买超卖，但表现出一种看跌背离，其中 XRP 价格创出更高的低点，而 RSI 形成更低的高点和更低的低点，表明动能减弱，可能导致更大的潜在下行空间。

Technical Analysis Theory: Bearish divergence typically refers to the scenario where the price of an asset is making higher highs while the RSI is making lower highs. This suggests that the upward price movement is not being supported by growing momentum and could indicate a potential reversal to the downside. However, divergence can also be observed with the price making higher lows in an uptrend, which might be less commonly discussed but is still valid.

RSI 背离 XRP/USD 技术分析理论：看跌背离通常是指资产价格创出更高高点而 RSI 创出更低高点的情况。这表明价格上涨并未得到增长势头的支持，并可能表明潜在的下行逆转。然而，随着价格在上升趋势中形成更高的低点，也可以观察到背离，这可能不太常见，但仍然有效。

In the chart illustrated above, XRP is making higher lows against the USD (indicating an uptrend). However, the RSI is making lower lows or failing to make higher highs alongside price, which can still be considered a form of bearish divergence. 

在上图中，XRP 兑美元汇率创下更高的低点（表明上升趋势）。然而，RSI 正在创造更低的低点或未能与价格一起创造更高的高点，这仍然可以被视为看跌背离的一种形式。

The price action in XRP and its relative RSI implies that each push upward in the XRP price is accompanied by weaker momentum, which could signal a weakening XRP trend and potential for a trend reversal or a slowdown in the uptrend (higher lows).

XRP 的价格走势及其相对 RSI 意味着 XRP 价格的每次上涨都伴随着较弱的势头，这可能预示着 XRP 趋势的减弱以及趋势逆转或上升趋势放缓（更高低点）的可能性。

While not typical, this kind of ‘bearish’ divergence pattern might be interpreted as a sign that despite the XRP price not reaching new highs (hence the lower highs), in six years, the buyers are gradually losing strength, as indicated by the lower highs in the RSI. 

虽然不典型，但这种“看跌”背离模式可能被解释为一个迹象，表明尽管 XRP 价格在六年内没有达到新高（因此较低的高点），但买家正在逐渐失去力量，如下图所示： RSI 的高点。

The higher lows in the XRP price suggest that some support is preventing the XRP price from making new lows which is apparent, but the decreasing RSI points to diminishing momentum or slowing buying power on each successive move upward.

RSI XRP/美元 XRP 价格的低点较高表明，一些支撑正在阻止 XRP 价格创下新低，这一点很明显，但 RSI 的下降表明每次连续上涨的动力减弱或购买力放缓。

This can also be seen as complex divergence, with the price making lower highs and higher lows while the RSI shows lower lows and lower highs, also indicative of a complex divergence. 

这也可以被视为复杂背离，价格形成更低的高点和更高的低点，而 RSI 显示更低的低点和更低的高点，也表明存在复杂背离。

In this case, XRP depicts a complex form of bearish divergence, as the RSI is failing to make higher highs even though the price is not pushing to new lows, suggesting that while there may be a lack of strong bullish momentum to drive up prices, there is support preventing further declines, leading to an overall consolidation in price action.

在这种情况下，XRP 描绘了一种复杂的看跌背离形式，因为即使价格没有推向新低，RSI 也未能创出更高的高点，这表明虽然可能缺乏强劲的看涨势头来推高价格，存在阻止进一步下跌的支撑，导致价格走势整体盘整。

Traders might seek additional confirmation from other indicators or price patterns before deciding based on this divergence.

在根据这种差异做出决定之前，交易者可能会从其他指标或价格模式中寻求额外的确认。

Price Forecasts of XRP/USD: To The Moon Or Not?

The bear and bull scenarios for XRP can be examined from both a technical and fundamental aspect.

XRP/美元的价格预测：是否登月？ XRP 的熊市和牛市情景可以从技术和基本面两个方面进行审视。

Bearish Case: 5050 Likelihood

• Fractal analysis: The bull scenario hinges on a fractal analysis where the price action of XRP during 2016-17 is used to forecast potential future breakouts. If a similar pattern were to occur, the price could possibly fall initially as a final shakeout and then increase to $3 and even reach as high $8-14 or even $100 (yet $100 is highly unlikely).
• Potential catalysts: For such a dramatic price increase to materialize from $0.50, significant catalysts would be necessary. This might include resolution of legal issues, widespread adoption of XRP in the banking and financial industry, or a shift in investor sentiment leading to a strong demand for XRP, which realistically is not going to happen.

Why The XRP 2018 Fractal To $100 Is Extremely Unlikely

• Diminishing returns: As markets mature, they often exhibit diminishing returns. The kind of meteoric rises seen in the early days of cryptocurrencies is less likely as the market cap grows, requiring exponentially more capital to produce similar percentage gains.
• Increased scrutiny: With greater regulatory scrutiny and investor sophistication, the market dynamics have shifted. Hype alone is less likely to drive substantial and sustained price increases without solid fundamentals to back it up. Yet, it may lead to dead cat bounces in XRP but this is not healthy or sufficient long term.
• Market saturation: The cryptocurrency market has become increasingly crowded with thousands of tokens marketing themselves for investors’ attention. This saturation means that XRP is just one of many options for investors, diluting the potential for massive inflows into any single asset.
• Technological competition: The landscape of blockchain and cryptocurrency technology has evolved, with numerous projects offering similar or superior capabilities compared to Ripple’s offerings. This competition may hinder the ability of XRP to capture a significant market share.
• Historical performance: Past performance is not indicative of future results. The extraordinary returns seen in 2016-17 were during a period of widespread enthusiasm and adoption, which may not be repeatable under current market conditions.

Conclusion

In conclusion, XRP/USD stands at a crossroads with its future price action hinging on a breakout from a long-term consolidation pattern. While the bull scenario draws upon historical fractals suggesting a potential increase to new highs, this outlook is dampened by market maturation, heightened competition, regulatory challenges, and a notable shift in investor sentiment. 

看跌案例：5050 可能性XRP 熊市展望价格范围：看跌案例强调，随着比特币继续创出新高，XRP 继续在 1 美元到 0.20 美元之间波动。这种长期的区间波动可能表明在较高价格水平缺乏强劲的买盘兴趣，在较低价格水平缺乏抛售压力，从而防止价格跌至 0.20 美元以下。 来自比特币的竞争：比特币通常被称为“数字黄金”，已经巩固了其作为数字黄金的地位。市场领导者和新资本进入加密货币市场的主要切入点。它往往会吸引大多数机构投资，这可能会限制资金流入 XRP 等山寨币。法律和监管挑战：XRP 面临着重大的法律和监管阻力，特别是 SEC 的诉讼，指控 XRP 作为未注册的证券出售。由于不确定性和可能影响资产价值的潜在不利结果，这些法律问题可能会令投资者望而却步。 技术采用：虽然 Ripple 的技术已在跨境支付中得到一定程度的采用，但尚不清楚这是否会转化为对 XRP 代币的需求增加，主要是因为 RippleNet 可以在不一定使用 XRP 的情况下运行 牛市案例：5050 可能性 XRP/USD 牛市案例分形分析：牛市情景取决于分形分析，其中 XRP 在 2016-17 期间的价格走势用于预测未来潜在的突破。如果出现类似的模式，价格可能会首先下跌，最终出现震荡，然后上涨至 3 美元，甚至高达 8-14 美元，甚至 100 美元（但 100 美元的可能性很小）。 潜在催化剂：对于如此戏剧性的价格要从 0.50 美元上涨到实现，需要大量的催化剂。这可能包括法律问题的解决、XRP 在银行和金融行业的广泛采用，或者投资者情绪的转变导致对 XRP 的强劲需求，但实际上这不会发生。为什么 XRP 2018 年分形达到 100 美元是极端的不太可能的收益递减：随着市场的成熟，它们往往表现出收益递减。随着市值的增长，加密货币早期出现的那种飞速上涨的可能性越来越小，需要成倍增加的资本才能产生类似的百分比收益。 审查力度加大：随着监管审查的加强和投资者的成熟，市场动态已经发生了变化。如果没有坚实的基本面支持，单凭炒作不太可能推动价格大幅持续上涨。然而，这可能会导致 XRP 死猫式反弹，但从长远来看，这并不健康或不够充分。 市场饱和：加密货币市场已经变得越来越拥挤，成千上万的代币为了吸引投资者的注意力而进行营销。这种饱和意味着 XRP 只是投资者的众多选择之一，削弱了大规模流入任何单一资产的潜力。 技术竞争：区块链和加密货币技术的格局已经演变，与 Ripple 的产品相比，许多项目提供了类似或更好的功能。这种竞争可能会阻碍 XRP 夺取重要市场份额的能力。 历史表现：过去的表现并不代表未来的结果。 2016-17 年的非凡回报是在广泛热情和采用的时期出现的，在当前的市场条件下，这种情况可能无法重复。结论总而言之，XRP/USD 正处于十字路口，其未来的价格走势取决于长期突破期限盘整格局。虽然牛市情景利用历史分形表明有可能上涨至新高，但这种前景因市场成熟、竞争加剧、监管挑战和投资者情绪的显着转变而受到抑制。

The bear perspective, underscored by a range-bound form of price action and the possible continuation of a downtrend, seems more plausible given the current technical and fundamental landscape. 

考虑到当前的技术和基本面形势，以区间波动的价格走势和可能持续的下跌趋势为基础的看空观点似乎更为合理。

Considering the diminishing volume and bearishness in the RSI, XRP may face headwinds in achieving the heights of $100 in the future. Instead, a more cautious approach and vigilance for a definitive breakout direction, supported by solid volume and other confirming indicators, appear to be a prudent strategy for market participants observing XRP against both USD and BTC.

考虑到成交量的减少和 RSI 的看跌，XRP 在未来达到 100 美元的高度时可能会面临阻力。相反，对于观察 XRP 兑美元和 BTC 的市场参与者来说，在坚实的交易量和其他确认指标的支持下，采取更加谨慎的态度并对明确的突破方向保持警惕似乎是一种谨慎的策略。

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About the Author

Andrew Kamsky

Andrew Kamsky is a writer and chart analyst, holding a degree in Economics and an ACCA certification. Andrew’s professional background spans roles at a Big Four accountancy firm, a fintech bank, and a chart analyst position at a listed bank focusing on foreign currency hedging. Beyond his financial career, Andrew is passionate about music, glass neon lights and travel.

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本文是否有帮助？是否关于作者安德鲁·卡姆斯基 (Andrew Kamsky) 安德鲁·卡姆斯基 (Andrew Kamsky) 是一位作家和图表分析师，拥有经济学学位和 ACCA 认证。 Andrew 的专业背景涵盖四大会计师事务所、金融科技银行以及一家专注于外汇对冲的上市银行的图表分析师职位。除了金融事业之外，安德鲁还热衷于音乐、玻璃霓虹灯和旅行。查看更多[email protected]LinkedInTwitterYoutube