VanEck 预测比特币牛市将持续至少两个季度，设定 18 万美元的价格目标

VanEck 数字资产研究主管 Matthew Sigel 最近在 CNBC 的“Squawk Box”采访中预测，比特币当前的涨势“才刚刚开始”，预计将持续至少两个季度。

VanEck’s Head of Digital Assets Research predicts that Bitcoin’s recent rally is expected to continue for at least two more quarters.

VanEck 数字资产研究主管预测，比特币近期的涨势预计将持续至少两个季度。

In a recent interview on CNBC’s “Squawk Box,” Matthew Sigel, Head of Digital Assets Research at VanEck, shared his thoughts on Bitcoin’s price action and the factors influencing its performance.

VanEck 数字资产研究主管 Matthew Sigel 最近在 CNBC 的“Squawk Box”采访中分享了他对比特币价格走势以及影响其表现的因素的看法。

Commenting on BTC’s price movements, Sigel stated that the firm’s analysis suggests that the current rally is “just getting started.” He highlighted the high volatility in Bitcoin’s price action following the election, which is expected to continue. “We’re now in blue sky territory, no technical resistance. We think we’re likely to make repeated all-time highs over the next two quarters,” Sigel remarked.

Sigel 在评论 BTC 的价格走势时表示，该公司的分析表明当前的反弹“才刚刚开始”。他强调了选举后比特币价格走势的高度波动，预计这种情况将持续下去。 “我们现在处于蓝天领域，没有技术阻力。我们认为，未来两个季度我们可能会屡创历史新高。”西格尔说道。

The expert drew parallels to Bitcoin’s performance four years ago, noting that between the election and the end of 2020, the digital asset doubled in value. He acknowledged that while “there were about 6-10 corrections,” multiple indicators suggest the current rally will continue. “We’re up 30% so far [since Trump was elected], and a number of indicators that we track are still flashing green,” he added.

这位专家将比特币的表现与四年前的表现进行了比较，指出从大选到 2020 年底，这种数字资产的价值翻了一番。他承认，虽然“大约有 6-10 次调整”，但多项指标表明当前的涨势将持续下去。 “自特朗普当选以来，我们迄今为止已经上涨了 30%，而且我们追踪的许多指标仍然呈绿色闪烁，”他补充道。

A significant factor contributing to this optimistic outlook is a perceived shift in government support for Bitcoin. “This is a state change in terms of government support,” Sigel said, highlighting that key figures in the administration, including the Vice President, Attorney General, Director of Defense, National Security Advisor, and possibly even the Secretary of Treasury, are pro-Bitcoin.

造成这种乐观前景的一个重要因素是政府对比特币支持的明显转变。西格尔说：“这是政府支持方面的国家变化。”他强调，政府中的关键人物，包括副总统、总检察长、国防部长、国家安全顾问，甚至可能还有财政部长，都支持这一政策。 -比特币。

Sigel also pointed out that the anticipated end of “regulation by enforcement” from agencies like the SEC would positively impact the industry. “We’re already seeing the economic impact of that,” he noted. “There are crypto projects that are announcing that they’re going to hold conferences in the US for the first time ever, and open offices in the US and New York. It’s just great for US jobs and GDP.”

西格尔还指出，美国证券交易委员会等机构“执法监管”的预期结束将对行业产生积极影响。 “我们已经看到了它的经济影响，”他指出。 “有些加密货币项目宣布他们将首次在美国举行会议，并在美国和纽约开设办事处。这对美国就业和国内生产总值来说都是好事。”

Regarding institutional interest in Bitcoin, Sigel reported an increase in inquiries from investment advisors seeking to initiate or expand their exposure to Bitcoin through spot Bitcoin ETFs. “The number of calls that I’m getting inbound from investment advisors who are at zero and looking to get to 1% or at 1% and looking to get to 3%—these calls are starting to accelerate, and we think the flows are going to follow,” he explained.

关于机构对比特币的兴趣，Sigel 报告称，寻求通过现货比特币 ETF 启动或扩大对比特币的投资的投资顾问的询问有所增加。 “我接到的投资顾问打来的电话数量是零，希望达到 1% 或 1%，希望达到 3%——这些电话开始加速，我们认为流量正在增加。将会跟随，”他解释道。

Among the market sentiment indicators, Sigel highlighted that mainstream interest, as measured by Google searches and the ranking of crypto apps in app stores, has not yet reached previous highs, suggesting there is still room for further growth in this aspect. “Coinbase’s rank in the Apple and Android app stores is nowhere near where it was four years ago,” he observed.

在市场情绪指标中，Sigel 强调，通过谷歌搜索和应用商店中的加密应用排名来衡量的主流兴趣尚未达到之前的高点，这表明这方面仍有进一步增长的空间。 “Coinbase 在苹果和安卓应用商店中的排名与四年前相差甚远，”他观察到。

VanEck has set a price target of $180,000 for Bitcoin in the current bull run, which Sigel believes could be reached next year. “That would be a 1,000% return from the bottom to the peak of this cycle—that’s still the smallest Bitcoin cycle by far,” he stated.

VanEck 将当前牛市中的比特币价格目标定为 18 万美元，Sigel 相信明年可能会达到这一目标。 “这将是本周期从底部到峰值的 1,000% 回报——这仍然是迄今为止最小的比特币周期，”他表示。

The discussion also touched on potential regulatory changes, including the possible departure of SEC Chair Gary Gensler. While acknowledging that “the disappointment phase will set in one to two quarters after the inauguration,” Sigel suggested that the overall impact of reduced regulatory pressure would be positive. “One is just the positive impact on dynamism when you stop suing people for breaking rules that have never been written down,” he commented.

讨论还涉及潜在的监管变化，包括 SEC 主席加里·詹斯勒 (Gary Gensler) 可能离职。西格尔承认“失望阶段将在就职后一到两个季度内出现”，但他表示，监管压力减轻的总体影响将是积极的。 “当你停止起诉那些违反从未写下的规则的人时，就会对活力产生积极的影响，”他评论道。

Sigel also highlighted the broader implications of legitimizing Bitcoin as a reserve asset, which could “pave the way for it to be used as a global settlement currency, as the BRICS countries have been doing.” He also emphasized the potential synergy between Bitcoin and artificial intelligence. “President Trump recognizes the synergies between Bitcoin and AI—they are two sides of the same coin,” he said. “If you want to have cheap AI, you’re going to want to combine it with Bitcoin mining to take advantage of that cheap power.”

西格尔还强调了比特币作为储备资产合法化的更广泛影响，这可能“为比特币作为全球结算货币铺平道路，就像金砖国家一直在做的那样。”他还强调了比特币和人工智能之间潜在的协同作用。 “特朗普总统认识到比特币和人工智能之间的协同作用——它们是同一枚硬币的两面，”他说。 “如果你想拥有廉价的人工智能，你就需要将其与比特币挖矿结合起来，以利用这种廉价的力量。”

At press time, BTC trades at $90,816.

截至发稿时，BTC 交易价格为 90,816 美元。