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自2月以来,美国财政部通过其财政部总帐户(TGA)的流动性,为政府运营提供了流动性,向金融市场注入了5000亿美元
The US Treasury is set to inject $500 billion in liquidity into financial markets by April, Benkovskis, a macroeconomic financial analyst, said on Jan. 2.
宏观经济金融分析师贝科夫斯基斯(Benkovskis)在1月2日表示,美国财政部将于4月份将5000亿美元的流动性注入金融市场。
This liquidity injection will boost the net Federal Reserve liquidity to $6.3 trillion, which may support Bitcoin’s (BTC) price in the future, even though risk assets have shown minimal growth so far.
这种流动性注入将使美联储净流动性提高到6.3万亿美元,即将在将来支持比特币(BTC)的价格,即使风险资产到目前为止的增长最少。
Treasury General Account’s expected liquidity flow. Source: X.com
财政部总帐户的预期流动性流量。资料来源:X.com
Benkovskis explained that the liquidity is being drawn from the Treasury General Account (TGA), which is the government’s checking account at the Federal Reserve.
Benkovskis解释说,流动性是从财政部总帐户(TGA)中获取的,该账户是政府在美联储的支票帐户。
The TGA balance is used to fund government operations, and a decrease in its capital means that the balance has been deployed into the broader economy, increasing the available cash in the markets.
TGA余额用于资助政府运营,其资本减少意味着该余额已被部署到更广泛的经济中,从而增加了市场中可用的现金。
The TGA drawdown began on Feb. 12 following the exhaustion of “extraordinary measures” after the $36 trillion debt ceiling was hit on Jan 2.
在1月2日起36万亿美元的债务上限后,“非凡措施”耗尽了“非凡措施”之后,TGA趋势于2月12日开始。
The TGA balance has decreased from $842 to roughly $342 billion, releasing liquidity into the system, and the targeted liquidity is expected to rise up to $600 billion by the end of April.
TGA余额已从842美元下降到大约3420亿美元,将流动性释放到该系统中,到4月底,目标流动性预计将上升到6000亿美元。
The analyst stated that the current tax season will temporarily drain liquidity, but the drawdown is expected to resume in May. If the debt ceiling talks extend to August, net liquidity could hit a multi-year high of $6.6 trillion, which could create a bullish tailwind for Bitcoin.
分析师指出,当前的税收季节将暂时消耗流动性,但预计将在5月恢复。如果债务上限的谈判延长至8月,净流动性可能会达到6.6万亿美元的多年高点,这可能会为比特币造成看涨的后风。
Bitcoin’s correlation with global liquidity. Source: Lynalden.com
比特币与全球流动性的相关性。资料来源:lynalden.com
According to a study by financial analyst Lyn Alden, Bitcoin has historically moved 83% of the time in tandem with global liquidity over a 12-month period.
根据财务分析师林恩·奥尔登(Lyn Alden)的一项研究,比特币历史上已经有83%的时间与全球流动性共12个月同时。
The research, titled “Bitcoin a Global Liquidity Barometer,” compared Bitcoin to other major asset classes such as SPX, gold and VT, and BTC topped the correlation index with respect to global liquidity.
这项名为“比特币A全球流动性晴雨表”的研究将比特币与SPX,Gold和VT等其他主要资产类别进行了比较,而BTC则在全球流动性方面超过了相关指数。
Previous TGA drawdowns in 2022 and 2023 have fueled speculative assets like Bitcoin. Hence, a $600 billion boost, plus billions more added over Q2-Q3, could lift BTC’s value if market conditions remain stable.
先前在2022年和2023年进行的TGA缩水促进了像比特币这样的投机资产。因此,如果市场状况保持稳定,则增加了6000亿美元的提升,再加上数十亿美元的添加数十亿美元,可以提高BTC的价值。
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