标题：Omkar Godbole作者

在过去的两天中，加密货币市场一直稳定下来，比特币短暂地超过了200天的移动平均水平，即今天早些时候84,000美元。

The cryptocurrency market showed signs of steadying on Wednesday, with bitcoin briefly touching the 200-day simple moving average at $84,000 early in the day.

加密货币市场显示在周三稳定的迹象，比特币短暂地触及了200天的简单移动平均水平，即当天早些时候$ 84,000。

Softer-than-expected U.S. CPI figures released on Wednesday aided the sentiment by validating traders' anticipations of four interest-rate cuts this year by the Federal Reserve.

周三发布的比预期的美国CPI数据较柔和，通过验证交易者对美联储今年削减的四项利率削减的期望，在这一支持方面得到了帮助。

The past 24 hours' recovery was largely driven by the memecoin sector, followed by tokens of layer-1 and layer-2 blockchains and AI tokens, according to data source Velo.

根据数据源Velo的数据，过去24小时的恢复主要是由Memecoin部门驱动的，其次是第1层和第2层区块链和AI令牌的令牌。

However, issues such as President Trump's tariffs, U.S. recession concerns and the bond-market volatility that recently rocked BTC and other risk assets remain to cast doubt on the sustainability of the market recovery.

但是，诸如特朗普总统的关税，美国经济衰退的问题以及最近震撼了BTC和其他风险资产的债券市场波动之类的问题仍然对市场复苏的可持续性产生怀疑。

But at least two factors suggest otherwise.

但是至少有两个因素暗示着其他因素。

The first is the quarter-end rebalancing. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 are down 6% and 4.8%, respectively, this quarter, while the 10-year Treasury note is up 5%. That means funds mandated to maintain a specific asset allocation mix are now overweight bonds and will likely rebalance by buying equities and selling bonds as the quarter end nears.

首先是四分之一末的重新平衡。本季度，纳斯达克和标准普尔500指数分别下跌了6％和4.8％，而10年的国库券上涨了5％。这意味着，要求维持特定资产分配组合的资金现在是超重的债券，并且随着季度结束的临近，购买股票和出售债券可能会重新平衡。

Those actions will push bond yields and stock prices higher and could bode well for bitcoin and the broader crypto market, given the strong correlation between BTC and the technology stocks.

鉴于BTC与技术股之间的密切相关性，这些行动将推动债券收益率和股票价格提高，并可能对比特币和更广泛的加密货币市场良好。

The other factor is the yen, which has come under pressure since CoinDesk noted the potential for renewed crypto market stability on the back of overstretched bullish positioning in the Japanese currency. The yen, seen as a haven investment, may remain under pressure as the potential quarter-end rebalancing lifts U.S. bond yields. In other words, risk-off stemming from the JPY strength and the resulting unwinding of the yen carry trades may be over for now.

另一个因素是日元，自科德斯克（Coindesk）指出在日本货币中过度伸展的看涨位置后，加密货币市场稳定的潜力以来，它一直受到压力。日元被视为避风港的投资，可能会承受压力，因为潜在的季度重新平衡提高了美国的债券收益率。换句话说，源于JPY力量和日元携带交易的产生的风险可能已经结束。

Positive net global liquidity could also grease risk-taking.

全球净流动性积极也可能使冒险润滑。

"Net global liquidity, largely due to China and the U.S., is increasing," Two Prime, an SEC-registered investment adviser, said in a Telegram chat. "This may counteract some of the effects of the yen trade’s unwind. In addition, as the U.S. gets its own rates and inflation under better control, which has already started to incrementally trend down over the past few months, it will reduce pressure on other central bank bonds and slow rate growth on yen borrow."

SEC登记的投资顾问两位Prime在电报聊天中说：“全球流动性很大程度上是由于中国和美国的增加。” “这可能会抵消日元贸易放松的某些影响。此外，由于美国获得了自身的利率和通货膨胀，这在过去几个月中已经开始逐渐趋于趋势，因此它将减少对其他中央银行债券的压力，并减轻日元借入的增长率。”

Still, traders need to be vigilant for volatility, as Deribit's BTC-listed options market tracked by Amberdata shows significant negative dealer gamma between $81,000 and $87,000. Dealers are likely to trade in the direction of the market to maintain their overall exposure neutral, adding to price swings.

尽管如此，交易者仍需要保持警惕，因为Amberdata跟踪的Deribit上市期权市场显示出显着的负经销商Gamma在81,000美元至87,000美元之间。经销商可能会朝着市场方向进行交易，以保持其整体曝光中性，从而增加了价格波动。

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