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尽管比特币(BTC 1.88%)今年仍上涨近 40%,但过去六个月一直让加密货币投资者感到焦虑。
With Bitcoin (BTC 1.88%) up nearly 40% for the year to date, you might be wondering if it's still a good time to buy the world's most popular cryptocurrency. After all, Bitcoin has lost more than 20% of its value since hitting a new all-time high in mid-March.
今年迄今为止,比特币(BTC 1.88%)上涨了近 40%,您可能想知道现在是否仍然是购买世界上最受欢迎的加密货币的好时机。毕竟,自 3 月中旬创下历史新高以来,比特币价值已下跌超过 20%。
But if you're thinking about buying Bitcoin, there are three good reasons to do it before the calendar flips the page to 2025.
但如果你正在考虑购买比特币,那么在日历翻到 2025 年之前,有三个充分的理由让你这么做。
1. Return of Bitcoin ETF inflowsOne of the biggest stories surrounding Bitcoin this year has been the launch of the new spot Bitcoin ETFs. These ETFs have attracted billions of dollars in new investor inflows, which helped to propel Bitcoin to a new all-time high in March.
1. 比特币 ETF 资金流入回归 今年围绕比特币的最大新闻之一是新的现货比特币 ETF 的推出。这些 ETF 吸引了数十亿美元的新投资者流入,这有助于推动比特币在 3 月份创下历史新高。
But in recent weeks, that momentum has cooled. In fact, during August, the new headline was the reversal of those ETF inflows, as investors sought to move their money out of Bitcoin.
但最近几周,这种势头已经降温。事实上,8 月份的新头条新闻是 ETF 资金流入的逆转,因为投资者试图将资金撤出比特币。
Now, the good news here is that the worst appears to be over for the spot Bitcoin ETFs. On Sept. 13, over $263 million flowed into them — the highest daily total since July 22. Moreover, weekly inflows into the Bitcoin ETFs turned positive after a miserable two weeks when nearly $1 billion flowed out of them.
现在,好消息是现货比特币 ETF 最糟糕的时期似乎已经过去。 9 月 13 日,流入比特币 ETF 的资金超过 2.63 亿美元,这是自 7 月 22 日以来的最高单日流入量。此外,在经历了近 10 亿美元流出的悲惨两周后,每周流入比特币 ETF 的资金转为正数。
So if you think that ETF inflows are turning positive again, that could be a very bullish sign for Bitcoin as we head into the final quarter of the year.
因此,如果您认为 ETF 流入再次转为正数,那么随着我们进入今年最后一个季度,这可能对比特币来说是一个非常看涨的信号。
2. The Bitcoin halvingThus far, the Bitcoin halving has admittedly been a big nothingburger. The halving, which took place on April 19, was supposed to send the price of Bitcoin soaring. That obviously hasn't happened, so it's understandable if many investors have given up on the halving entirely.
2. 比特币减半 到目前为止,比特币减半无疑是一个小事。 4 月 19 日发生的减半预计将导致比特币价格飙升。这显然还没有发生,所以如果许多投资者完全放弃减半也是可以理解的。
But if you examine previous Bitcoin halving cycles (in 2012, 2016, and 2020), there's cause for optimism. For example, after the May 2020 halving, it took nearly five months for the price of Bitcoin to skyrocket in value. But Bitcoin finished the year with a bang, and went on to set a new all-time high in 2021.
但如果你回顾一下之前的比特币减半周期(2012 年、2016 年和 2020 年),你就有理由感到乐观。例如,2020年5月减半后,比特币价格用了近5个月的时间才暴涨。但比特币在这一年中表现出色,并在 2021 年创下了新的历史新高。
Of course, past performance is no guarantee of future performance, but at least there's a historical precedent in place. In a best-case scenario, the much-anticipated impact of the Bitcoin halving will start to kick in during the final months of the year, just like in the previous halving cycle.
当然,过去的表现并不能保证未来的表现,但至少有历史先例。在最好的情况下,比特币减半的预期影响将在今年的最后几个月开始显现,就像之前的减半周期一样。
3. The 2024 presidential electionFor the first time ever, Bitcoin has emerged as a legitimate campaign issue. In the run-up to the November presidential election, former president Donald Trump has positioned himself as the pro-Bitcoin candidate, and is generally viewed as someone who will support Bitcoin once he's in office.
3. 2024 年总统选举比特币有史以来第一次成为合法的竞选议题。在 11 月总统选举前夕,前总统唐纳德·特朗普将自己定位为支持比特币的候选人,并且普遍认为他上任后会支持比特币。
For example, Trump has said that he wants to support the Bitcoin mining industry within the U.S. He has talked about creating a strategic national reserve for Bitcoin, as well as a potential role for Bitcoin in reducing the nation's $35 trillion debt. He has also pledged to remove current SEC head Gary Gensler, who is generally viewed as someone who is holding back the growth of Bitcoin ownership within the United States.
例如,特朗普表示,他希望支持美国境内的比特币采矿业。他谈到了为比特币创建国家战略储备,以及比特币在减少美国 35 万亿美元债务方面的潜在作用。他还承诺罢免现任 SEC 主席加里·根斯勒 (Gary Gensler),后者通常被视为阻碍美国比特币所有权增长的人。
So if Trump is elected, it could be massively bullish for Bitcoin. Even if he is not elected, the political momentum has definitely shifted in Bitcoin's favor.
因此,如果特朗普当选,可能会极大地看好比特币。即使他没有当选,政治势头也肯定已经转向对比特币有利的方向。
Right now, the U.S. presidential race is too close to call, which might be why many investors remain on the sidelines. But definitely keep your eye on this election, and how it could impact the long-run potential of Bitcoin.
目前,美国总统竞选势均力敌,这可能就是许多投资者保持观望的原因。但一定要密切关注这次选举,以及它如何影响比特币的长期潜力。
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