Polymarket 计划建造共和党众议院，锁定特朗普三连胜

如果市场的预测是正确的——最近，它是正确的——选举结果对加密货币来说比表面上看起来更加乐观。

Prediction market Polymarket is signaling that the Republicans will almost certainly retain control of the House of Representatives following the 2024 election results.

预测市场 Polymarket 发出信号，在 2024 年选举结果公布后，共和党几乎肯定会保留对众议院的控制权。

As of Wednesday afternoon in New York, “Democratic” shares for Polymarket's “House control after 2024 election?” contract were trading at 1 cent, indicating traders see only a 1% chance of the party taking back the chamber. Each share pays out $1 (in USDC, a stablecoin, or cryptocurrency that usually trades one-for-one with dollars) if the prediction comes true, and zilch if not.

截至纽约周三下午，“民主党”股票支持 Polymarket 的“2024 年大选后的众议院控制权？”合约交易价格为 1 美分，这表明交易者认为该方收回商会的可能性只有 1%。如果预测成真，每股将支付 1 美元（USDC，一种稳定币，或通常与美元一对一交易的加密货币），如果预测不成真，则为零。

The GOP's odds of winning the House, accordingly, were at 99%.

因此，共和党赢得众议院的几率为 99%。

While news organizations predicted that Democrats would hold the House in the early hours of the election on Nov. 5, by Wednesday afternoon they began following Polymarket in saying those chances were “fading.”

虽然新闻机构预测民主党将在 11 月 5 日大选的凌晨控制众议院，但到了周三下午，他们开始追随 Polymarket 的说法，称这种机会“正在消失”。

Just 24 hours earlier, the market was giving the Democrats a slightly better than even chance of prevailing in the lower house of Congress.

就在 24 小时前，市场还认为民主党在国会下议院获胜的机会稍好一些。

According to the Associated Press, control of the House was still undecided as of 2 p.m. ET. But the Republicans have won at least 52 Senate seats, ensuring them a majority in the upper chamber.

据美联社报道，截至美国东部时间下午 2 点，众议院控制权仍未确定。但共和党已经赢得了至少 52 个参议院席位，确保了他们在参议院的多数席位。

If the current odds are correct, then the Republicans, led by president-elect Donald Trump, will have hit the trifecta, controlling the White House and both houses of Congress.

如果目前的赔率正确，那么由当选总统唐纳德·特朗普领导的共和党将取得三连胜，控制白宫和国会两院。

That, in turn, would ease the path for comprehensive crypto legislation in the next Congress, something the industry has been pushing for, complaining that existing laws do not clearly address how digital assets should be regulated.

反过来，这将为下一届国会全面加密货币立法铺平道路，这是该行业一直在推动的事情，抱怨现有法律没有明确解决如何监管数字资产。

By contrast, Gary Gensler, the lame-duck chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission under outgoing President Joseph Biden, has insisted that existing rules are sufficient to supervise the industry.

相比之下，即将卸任的总统约瑟夫·拜登领导下的证券交易委员会主席加里·詹斯勒坚称现有规则足以监管该行业。

To be sure, Polymarlet's House contract has relatively small volume ($2 million) compared to the now-resolved presidential market, which saw billions in trading.

可以肯定的是，与现已解决的总统市场（其交易量达数十亿美元）相比，Polymarlet 的众议院合约的交易量相对较小（200 万美元）。

In prediction markets, traders bet on the verifiable outcomes of real-world events within defined time frames. In recent weeks, the higher odds Polymarket gave Trump of winning the presidency compared to polls led to speculation in the mainstream media that someone was manipulating the market to overstate his chances.

在预测市场中，交易者押注于规定时间范围内现实世界事件的可验证结果。最近几周，与民意调查相比，Polymarket 认为特朗普赢得总统职位的几率更高，导致主流媒体猜测有人在操纵市场，夸大他的机会。

Proponents have long argued that these markets can be a superior forecasting method compared to polls or punditry because the participants are putting money on the line and therefore are strongly incentivized to do thorough research and bet on what they believe will happen, not what others want to hear.

支持者长期以来一直认为，与民意调查或权威机构相比，这些市场可能是一种更好的预测方法，因为参与者将钱投入其中，因此有强烈的动机进行彻底的研究并押注于他们认为会发生的事情，而不是其他人想要发生的事情听到。

Trump's resounding victory, despite polls that showed a toss-up, supports that case.

尽管民意调查结果显示，特朗普的压倒性胜利支持了这一观点。

"Markets are better than models. Almost axiomatically, because any model that has [a] useful signal is already incorporated into market prices," said Flip Pidot, CEO and co-founder of American Civics Exchange, an over-the-counter dealer in political contracts.

美国场外交易交易商 American Civics Exchange 的首席执行官兼联合创始人 Flip Pidot 表示：“市场比模型更好。这几乎是不言自明的，因为任何具有有用信号的模型都已经纳入市场价格。”政治契约。

"Markets aren't perfect, but they're the best mechanism we've got, for discounting not only future cash flows but future uncertainties," Pidot said. "So markets generally benefit from models to the extent they can incorporate them in their pricing. But if you're looking for the best fair odds, look at market prices, not legacy forecasters."

皮多特说：“市场并不完美，但它们是我们拥有的最好机制，不仅可以贴现未来的现金流，还可以贴现未来的不确定性。” “因此，市场通常会从模型中受益，只要他们可以将模型纳入定价中。但如果你正在寻找最佳的公平赔率，请查看市场价格，而不是传统的预测者。”

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