波卡面临支撑考验，价格预测悬而未决； Arbitrum 掌控代币解锁动态

由于看跌情绪和缺乏投资者吸引力持续存在，Polkadot (DOT) 面临跌至 5 美元的局面。与此同时，尽管对代币解锁存在担忧，但随着 BOLD 的推出和交易量的增加，Arbitrum (ARB) 展示了增长潜力。对 DOT 和 ARB 的价格动态进行了分析，突出了潜在的支撑位和阻力位。

Polkadot and Arbitrum: A Tale of Market Dynamics and Price Forecasts

Polkadot 和 Arbitrum：市场动态和价格预测的故事

Amidst the ongoing crypto market turbulence, Polkadot (DOT) has exhibited resilience, temporarily suspending its downward trajectory. However, the prevailing bearish sentiment, amplified by recent market developments, threatens to push the Layer 2 altcoin towards a crucial support level of $5.

在加密货币市场持续动荡的情况下，Polkadot（DOT）表现出了韧性，暂时停止了下行趋势。然而，当前的看跌情绪因近期市场发展而加剧，有可能将 Layer 2 山寨币推向 5 美元的关键支撑位。

Polkadot's recovery hinges critically on the support from its existing holders and the attraction of new investors. Historically, an influx of fresh capital and increased market participation have served as catalysts for upward price movements.

Polkadot 的复苏关键取决于现有持有者的支持和新投资者的吸引力。从历史上看，新资本的涌入和市场参与度的增加一直是价格上涨的催化剂。

Polkadot: Challenges in Attracting Investors

Polkadot：吸引投资者的挑战

Polkadot currently faces challenges in attracting investors, as evidenced by its Sharpe Ratio languishing at -5.17, indicating a negative risk-adjusted return. Such metrics deter investors from engaging with the digital asset. The current seven-month low in Polkadot's Sharpe Ratio casts doubt on its price recovery prospects.

波卡目前在吸引投资者方面面临挑战，其夏普比率徘徊在-5.17，表明风险调整后回报为负。这些指标阻止投资者参与数字资产。波卡夏普比率目前的七个月低点让人对其价格复苏前景产生怀疑。

Moreover, Polkadot is experiencing a decline in interest from its current holders, with traders withdrawing from the Futures market. This exodus exacerbates the potential for further price declines.

此外，随着交易员退出期货市场，Polkadot 当前持有者的兴趣正在下降。这种外流加剧了价格进一步下跌的可能性。

Polkadot's Price Forecast

Polkadot 的价格预测

At the time of writing, Polkadot trades at $6.6 on Gate.io, having undergone a substantial correction following the invalidation of its falling wedge pattern. Given the prevailing market conditions, DOT remains susceptible to further downside.

截至撰写本文时，Polkadot 在 Gate.io 上的交易价格为 6.6 美元，在其下降楔形模式失效后经历了大幅调整。鉴于当前的市场状况，DOT 仍然容易受到进一步下跌的影响。

Should the $6.3 support level fail to hold, Polkadot's price could plummet to $5.7, marking a four-month low and potentially signaling a market bottom for 2024. Conversely, if the $6.3 support holds firm, a bounce-back could be possible, with Polkadot's price aiming to surpass $7.00 and potentially negating the bearish outlook.

如果 6.3 美元的支撑位未能守住，Polkadot 的价格可能会暴跌至 5.7 美元，创下四个月低点，并可能预示着 2024 年市场触底。相反，如果 6.3 美元的支撑位保持坚挺，则可能会出现反弹，Polkadot 的价格可能会下跌。价格有望突破 7.00 美元，并可能否定看跌前景。

Arbitrum: Innovation and Token Unlock Dynamics

Arbitrum：创新和代币解锁动态

Offchain Labs, the driving force behind Arbitrum, has made significant strides by unveiling Arbitrum BOLD on its testnet platform. Arbitrum BOLD introduces Bounded Liquidity Delay (BOLD), an innovative dispute resolution protocol tailored for optimistic rollups. This development empowers users to participate as validator nodes and contribute to the network's consensus mechanism, while implementing robust defenses against delay attacks.

Offchain Labs 是 Arbitrum 背后的推动力量，通过在其测试网平台上推出 Arbitrum BOLD，取得了重大进展。 Arbitrum BOLD 引入了有界流动性延迟 (BOLD)，这是一种专为乐观汇总量身定制的创新争议解决协议。这一开发使用户能够作为验证节点参与并为网络的共识机制做出贡献，同时实施针对延迟攻击的强大防御。

Arbitrum has emerged as a leading Layer 2 network on Ethereum, boasting a substantial user base. In August 2021, Offchain Labs secured $120 million in funding, led by Lightspeed Venture Partners.

Arbitrum 已成为以太坊上领先的第 2 层网络，拥有庞大的用户基础。 2021 年 8 月，Offchain Labs 获得了由 Lightspeed Venture Partners 领投的 1.2 亿美元融资。

Genesis of BOLD

BOLD 的起源

Offchain Labs introduced BOLD in August 2023 to address vulnerabilities in the validation mechanisms of Arbitrum One and Nova. These protocols rely on fraud proofs for validation, which currently operate under permissioned settings due to their susceptibility to denial-of-service attacks.

Offchain Labs 于 2023 年 8 月推出 BOLD，以解决 Arbitrum One 和 Nova 验证机制中的漏洞。这些协议依赖欺诈证明进行验证，由于它们容易受到拒绝服务攻击，因此目前在许可设置下运行。

BOLD addresses these concerns by introducing a fixed upper limit of 7 days on confirmation delays, rendering the protocol resilient against delay attacks. This enables Arbitrum chains to transition to a permissionless validation model, enhancing decentralization.

BOLD 通过引入 7 天的确认延迟固定上限来解决这些问题，使协议能够抵御延迟攻击。这使得 Arbitrum 链能够过渡到无需许可的验证模型，从而增强去中心化。

Arbitrum Price Forecast Ahead of Token Unlocks

代币解锁前的仲裁价格预测

Token unlocks can serve as catalysts for bearish price movements, particularly when the recipients are likely to sell their holdings quickly. Such an influx of tokens into circulation without a corresponding surge in demand can create an imbalance, favoring supply over demand.

代币解锁可以成为看跌价格走势的催化剂，特别是当接收者可能迅速出售其持有的代币时。代币大量涌入流通而需求却没有相应激增，可能会造成不平衡，有利于供应而不是需求。

This dynamic is evident in the Arbitrum network, where token unlocks this week are expected to add to volatility. The network is set to unlock 92.65 million ARB tokens, approximately 3.49% of the circulating supply, with allocations to the Arbitrum team, future team members, advisors, and investors.

这种动态在 Arbitrum 网络中很明显，本周的代币解锁预计将增加波动性。该网络将解锁 9265 万个 ARB 代币，约占流通供应量的 3.49%，分配给 Arbitrum 团队、未来团队成员、顾问和投资者。

The previous token unlock event on March 16 released 1.11 billion ARB tokens, 41.89% of the circulating supply, leading to an over 10% decline in the price of Arbitrum. If historical patterns hold, a similar downward trend could be expected.

3月16日的上一次解锁活动释放了11.1亿个ARB代币，占流通量的41.89%，导致Arbitrum价格下跌超过10%。如果历史模式成立，预计会出现类似的下降趋势。

Despite an attempted recovery on Sunday, the price of Arbitrum faces resistance to further upward movement. Cautious traders are concerned about liquidity drains during exits, increasing the risk of a price decline.

尽管周日试图恢复，但 Arbitrum 的价格仍面临进一步上涨的阻力。谨慎的交易者担心退出期间流动性流失，从而增加价格下跌的风险。

A potential scenario entails a retest of the psychological support level at $1.00, representing a 10% downturn. In a more adverse scenario, the price could plummet to its Saturday low of $0.8556, a 25% decrease from current levels.

一种可能的情况是重新测试 1.00 美元的心理支撑位，即下跌 10%。在更不利的情况下，价格可能会暴跌至周六低点 0.8556 美元，较当前水平下跌 25%。

Conversely, robust buying pressure could trigger an upward surge, propelling the ARB price beyond its 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $1.45. However, the bullish outlook hinges on the price breaching and sustaining a close above $1.73.

相反，强劲的购买压力可能会引发价格上涨，推动 ARB 价格突破 1.45 美元的 200 天简单移动平均线 (SMA)。然而，看涨前景取决于价格突破并维持在 1.73 美元上方。

Achieving a breakthrough beyond this critical level and the incorporation of BOLD, which aligns with the 50-day SMA at $1.71, could attract buyers and drive the ARB price beyond projected targets.

突破这一关键水平并纳入 BOLD（与 1.71 美元的 50 日移动平均线一致）可能会吸引买家并推动 ARB 价格超出预期目标。