花旗援引 ETF、稳定币和特朗普当选称 2025 年可能是加密货币的关键一年

花旗分析师表示，2025 年可能是数字资产的关键一年，理由是多种因素将推动该市场。一些强有力的催化剂包括越来越多地采用稳定币来增强 DeFi 市场，以及加密货币 ETF 的扩张，从而在该领域创造更容易的准入和更多的机构曝光。

Citi analysts are optimistic about 2025 for digital assets, highlighting several factors expected to drive market growth. Stablecoin adoption is a key catalyst, with the combined market capitalization of Tether (USDT), USD Coin (USDC), and Dai (DAI) increasing by over $25 billion following the 2024 U.S. presidential election. Citi views stablecoins as a primary driver for decentralized finance (DeFi), noting that “stablecoins are the on-ramp to decentralized finance.”

花旗分析师对 2025 年数字资产持乐观态度，强调了预计将推动市场增长的几个因素。稳定币的采用是一个关键的催化剂，2024 年美国总统大选后，Tether (USDT)、美元硬币 (USDC) 和 Dai (DAI) 的总市值增加了超过 250 亿美元。花旗将稳定币视为去中心化金融（DeFi）的主要驱动力，并指出“稳定币是去中心化金融的入口。”

As stablecoin usage expands, more participants are likely to enter DeFi applications, which use these assets for lending, borrowing, and other financial services. The rapid rise in Ethereum network activity, including layer-2 scaling solutions, has also bolstered this growth, with on-chain activity up by 210% compared to 2023 levels.

随着稳定币使用的扩大，更多的参与者可能会进入 DeFi 应用，这些应用使用这些资产进行借贷和其他金融服务。以太坊网络活动（包括第 2 层扩展解决方案）的快速增长也促进了这一增长，与 2023 年的水平相比，链上活动增加了 210%。

Another pivotal factor, according to Citi analysts, is the election of Donald Trump as U.S. President-elect. His stance on the industry, particularly support for pro-crypto officials, is massively considered one major optimism factor among investors for their support. This will also increase crypto-friendly policies initiated during his administration and involve appointments of key heads within key agencies, such as the head of the Securities and Exchange Commission, Paul Atkins.

花旗分析师表示，另一个关键因素是唐纳德·特朗普当选美国候任总统。他对该行业的立场，特别是对支持加密货币的官员的支持，被广泛认为是投资者支持的主要乐观因素之一。这也将增加他在任期间发起的加密货币友好政策，并涉及关键机构内关键负责人的任命，例如证券交易委员会主席保罗·阿特金斯。

Crypto prices, including Bitcoin, reaching an unprecedented valuation of $100,000 for the first time in history, jumped immediately after the victory of Trump in November 2024. A conducive regulatory framework coupled with growing involvement by institutions could lead to a “demand shock” for Bitcoin, pushing up its price even further into the next few years.

2024 年 11 月特朗普获胜后，包括比特币在内的加密货币价格历史上首次达到前所未有的 10 万美元估值。有利的监管框架加上机构的日益参与可能会导致比特币的“需求冲击” ，在未来几年进一步推高其价格。

Citi analysts added that, although the outlook for 2025 remains upbeat, sustained growth would depend on broad-based adoption. They note countries such as Turkey, Argentina, and Venezuela, which face economic instability and thus increased demand for digital assets, as the countries to keep an eye on. However, they warned that ongoing regulatory development may also play a very important role in deciding the fate of the market.

花旗分析师补充说，尽管 2025 年的前景仍然乐观，但持续增长将取决于广泛的采用。他们指出，土耳其、阿根廷和委内瑞拉等国家面临经济不稳定，因此对数字资产的需求增加，值得关注。然而，他们警告说，持续的监管发展也可能在决定市场命运方面发挥非常重要的作用。

Citi believes the regulatory environment under the administration of Trump is set to become clearer. A move from regulation by enforcement to one more legislative-based might mean much-needed stability to lure even more institutional capital and retail investors into the sector.

花旗认为，特朗普政府的监管环境将变得更加清晰。从执法监管转向立法监管可能意味着急需的稳定性，以吸引更多机构资本和散户投资者进入该行业。