NFL 第 7 周精选：格莱姆斯王子在无忧无虑的第 6 周表现完美

本周的橄榄球比赛基本没有什么波澜，这让印第安纳波利斯小马队和其他零支球队的支持者格莱姆斯王子在第六周取得了 14 胜 0 负的完美战绩。

Our panel of experts makes their picks for every game in Week 7 of the 2024 NFL season.

我们的专家小组会为 2024 年 NFL 赛季第 7 周的每场比赛做出选择。

After a mostly upset-free Week 6, our panel is tasked with picking a slate of games that feature two-thirds of the matchups with a spread of three points or fewer. That includes five home underdogs, at least four of which should be plucky enough to pull off a victory.

在经历了基本无忧无虑的第六周之后，我们的小组的任务是挑选一系列比赛，其中三分之二的比赛的分差为三分或更少。其中包括五支主场劣势球队，其中至少有四支应该有足够的勇气取得胜利。

Here are the picks for every game in Week 7 of the 2024 NFL season, with All odds via BetMGM.

以下是 2024 年 NFL 赛季第 7 周每场比赛的选秀，所有赔率均来自 BetMGM。

Last week’s success looked a little like my 2023, where I ended the year as Pickwatch’s top expert in a field of hundreds — in fact, I’m now doing some side work in Pickwatch’s VIP Discord channels if you want to talk more about these games.

上周的成功看起来有点像我的 2023 年，我作为 Pickwatch 数百个领域的顶级专家结束了这一年 - 事实上，如果你想更多地谈论这些游戏，我现在正在 Pickwatch 的 VIP Discord 频道做一些副业。

Joining me for 2024 is a six-person panel ranging from FTW editors (Charles Curtis, Mary Clarke) to betting analysts (Prince Grimes) to NFL writers (Robert Zeglinski, Andrew Joseph, Meghan Hall).

2024 年与我一起参加的是一个六人小组，成员包括 FTW 编辑（查尔斯·柯蒂斯、玛丽·克拉克）、博彩分析师（格莱姆斯王子）和 NFL 作家（罗伯特·泽格林斯基、安德鲁·约瑟夫、梅根·霍尔）。

Here are our Week 7 picks:

以下是我们第七周的精选：

Let’s break out three games to talk about.

我们分三场比赛来谈谈。

Easiest game to pick: Washington Commanders (-7.5) over the Carolina Panthers

最容易选择的比赛：华盛顿指挥官队（-7.5）战胜卡罗莱纳黑豹队

Why I like this pick:

为什么我喜欢这个选择：

Washington is at home and needs to reset after last week’s close-but-not-too-close loss to the Baltimore Ravens. The Panthers are crawling back into their hole and Andy Dalton is no longer surprising anyone. The league’s most efficient quarterback, Jayden Daniels, is facing the league’s 30th-ranked passing defense.

华盛顿队在主场，在上周以微弱优势输给巴尔的摩乌鸦队后需要重新调整。黑豹队正在爬回他们的洞里，安迪·道尔顿不再让任何人感到惊讶。联盟最高效的四分卫杰登·丹尼尔斯，面对的是联盟排名第 30 的传球防守。

Why I don’t like this pick:

为什么我不喜欢这个选择：

Carolina has a road win this season. Granted, it was against whatever the hell the Las Vegas Raiders are and it’s the only game they didn’t lose by double digits. The Commanders’ defense is, in a word, bad.

卡罗莱纳州本赛季取得客场胜利。诚然，这场比赛是对阵拉斯维加斯突袭者队，而且这是他们唯一一场没有以两位数输掉的比赛。总而言之，指挥官的防守很糟糕。

Hardest favorite to back: Minnesota Vikings (-2.5) over the Detroit Lions

最难支持的球队：明尼苏达维京人队（-2.5）战胜底特律雄狮队

Why I like this pick:

为什么我喜欢这个选择：

Minnesota is a well coached team coming off a bye. Detroit’s pass rush ranked only 24th in pressure rate before losing Aidan Hutchinson to a broken leg. The Lions’ pass defense is much improved from 2023, but facing Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison and maaaaaybe T.J. Hockenson is a tough sell for even the best secondary out there. After dismantling the Cowboys on the road, there’s room for a Detroit adrenaline dump.

明尼苏达是一支训练有素的球队，刚刚经历了轮空。在艾丹·哈钦森因腿骨折失去球队之前，底特律队的传球冲击力在压力率上仅排名第 24 位。与 2023 年相比，雄狮队的传球防守有了很大改善，但面对贾斯汀·杰斐逊、乔丹·艾迪生和 TJ·霍肯森，即使对于最好的二线球员来说，也很难推销。在客场解散牛仔队之后，底特律就有了肾上腺素倾泄的空间。

Why I don’t like this pick:

为什么我不喜欢这个选择：

The vibes in Detroit are immaculate to the point of calling old familiar plays and trick standbys and having most of them work to devastating effect. That won’t be as easy against Brian Flores’s defense, but the Lions probably won’t need another 47 points to win. Sam Darnold showed signs of regression before the bye and there’s an unshakable feeling the other shoe is waiting to drop. The Vikings will have to play a bruising run game just as tough as a dynamic passing game, and while they should be able to handle it there’s a lot about which to worry.

底特律的氛围完美到了让人想起熟悉的老戏和戏法的地步，并且其中大多数都产生了毁灭性的效果。面对布莱恩·弗洛雷斯的防守，这并不容易，但雄狮队可能不需要再拿下 47 分就能获胜。萨姆·达诺德在告别前表现出退行的迹象，有一种不可动摇的感觉，另一只鞋正在等待掉落。维京人队将不得不打一场激烈的跑动比赛，就像打一场充满活力的传球比赛一样艰难，虽然他们应该能够应对，但还有很多值得担心的事情。

Upset pick of the week: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+4) over the Baltimore Ravens

本周冷门选秀：坦帕湾海盗队 (+4) 击败巴尔的摩乌鸦队

There are several games I don’t quite know what to do with. The Broncos and Saints each laid an egg last week. Am I supposed to trust Bo Nix on the road? Spencer Rattler vs. a top five defense? Maaaaaan.

有好几个游戏我都不知道该做什么。野马队和圣徒队上周各下了一个蛋。我应该在路上相信博·尼克斯吗？斯宾塞·拉特勒 (Spencer Rattler) 对阵排名前五的防守？玛啊啊啊。

Are the Pittsburgh Steelers about to throw Russell Wilson into the lineup despite Justin Fields’ pretty-good-ness? Which version of the Arizona Cardinals are we getting vs. the Los Angeles Chargers? Ooof. I kinda hate this week. Let’s take a closer look at the Bucs, I guess.

尽管贾斯汀·菲尔兹（Justin Fields）表现相当出色，匹兹堡钢人队是否仍将拉塞尔·威尔逊（Russell Wilson）纳入首发阵容？我们将得到哪个版本的亚利桑那红雀队与洛杉矶闪电队的比赛？噢。我有点讨厌这周。我想，让我们仔细看看海盗队。

Why I like this pick:

为什么我喜欢这个选择：

Why I don’t like this pick:

为什么我不喜欢这个选择：

The Ravens offense ranks fourth in explosive play rate and second in EPA. Lamar Jackson is following up his MVP 2023 with another MVP caliber campaign and in the midst of his most efficient season as a passer (a league best 9.3 adjusted yards per attempt). Tampa’s pass defense is good, not great.

乌鸦队的进攻在爆发力上排名第四，在 EPA 上排名第二。拉马尔·杰克逊 (Lamar Jackson) 继获得 2023 年 MVP 后，又迎来了一次 MVP 级别的竞选，并且正处于他作为传球手最高效的赛季中（联盟最佳每次传球 9.3 码调整码）。坦帕的传球防守还不错，但不是很好。