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从历史上看,全球 M2 和比特币经常同步变化,但这种关系在当前的市场周期中会持续吗?
Global liquidity, as measured by the Global M2 index, reached a new all-time high (ATH) on Sept. 20. However, Bitcoin price has failed to follow this upward trend, leaving many crypto investors wondering what this divergence could mean for BTC's price.
以全球 M2 指数衡量的全球流动性在 9 月 20 日创下历史新高 (ATH)。然而,比特币价格未能跟随这一上涨趋势,让许多加密货币投资者想知道这种背离对 BTC 意味着什么价格。
According to Bitcoin Magazine, the Global M2 index rose to $96 trillion on Monday, continuing a trend that began in late 2021. The index, which tracks the total money supply managed by the 21 largest central banks, is often used to gauge how quickly money is being printed.
据《比特币杂志》报道,全球 M2 指数周一升至 96 万亿美元,延续了 2021 年底开始的趋势。该指数追踪 21 家最大央行管理的货币供应总量,通常用于衡量货币流通速度正在打印。
Many crypto investors believe that global M2 and Bitcoin price traditionally track each other closely. However, the current market cycle is showing a potential divergence between the two assets.
许多加密货币投资者认为,全球 M2 和比特币价格传统上密切相关。然而,当前的市场周期显示两种资产之间存在潜在的分歧。
Bitcoin price has risen by 16.2% over the past two weeks. However, the BTC price has failed to follow the upward trend in global liquidity, which reached a new ATH on Monday, Sept. 20.
过去两周,比特币价格上涨了 16.2%。然而,BTC 价格未能跟随全球流动性的上涨趋势,在 9 月 20 日星期一达到了新的 ATH。
The Global M2 index is a measure of the total money supply managed by the 21 largest central banks. This data is often used to gauge how quickly money is being printed, and it reached a new record high on Monday.
全球M2指数衡量21家最大央行管理的货币供应总量。该数据通常用于衡量印钞速度,并在周一创下新高。
However, while global M2 is at a record high, Bitcoin's price hasn't followed this upward trend. This is leaving many crypto investors wondering why the two assets are diverging in the current market.
然而,尽管全球M2创历史新高,比特币的价格却并未跟随这一上涨趋势。这让许多加密货币投资者想知道为什么这两种资产在当前市场上存在分歧。
According to analysis by Crypto, Distilled, the lack of correlation between global M2 and Bitcoin price may be due to limited liquidity in the crypto market. Many investors are opting for safer assets, which could be impacting BTC's price.
Crypto, Distilled 分析认为,全球 M2 与比特币价格缺乏相关性可能是由于加密市场流动性有限。许多投资者正在选择更安全的资产,这可能会影响比特币的价格。
One indicator that supports this view is the rise in stablecoins since late summer, which hints that investors are acting more cautiously in the current climate.
支持这一观点的一个指标是夏末以来稳定币的上涨,这表明投资者在当前环境下行事更加谨慎。
3/ Reflecting this risk-off mindset, stablecoin dominance has been rising since August.
3/ 自 8 月份以来,稳定币的主导地位一直在上升,反映了这种避险心态。
Investors are seeking shelter in stable assets amid macro uncertainty.
在宏观不确定性的背景下,投资者正在寻求稳定资产的庇护。
Stablecoins dominate trading pairs, acting as a proxy for investor demand. pic.twitter.com/omBErX8Jvl
稳定币在交易对中占据主导地位,充当投资者需求的代理。 pic.twitter.com/omBERX8Jvl
— Crypto, Distilled (@DistilledCrypto) September 19, 2024
— 加密货币,蒸馏 (@DistilledCrypto) 2024 年 9 月 19 日
Crypto, Distilled also points out that the gold demand index, which reflects demand for the precious metal, is moving in sync with global M2. This suggests that liquidity is being directed toward safer investments.
Crypto, Distilled 还指出,反映贵金属需求的黄金需求指数与全球 M2 同步变化。这表明流动性正在流向更安全的投资。
6/ Meanwhile, gold shows a strong correlation with M2, reinforcing its role as a recession hedge.
6/ 与此同时,黄金与 M2 表现出很强的相关性,强化了其对冲衰退风险的作用。
As money supply rises, so does gold demand, cementing its safe-haven status.
随着货币供应量的增加,黄金需求也随之增加,从而巩固了其避险地位。
In August, gold rallied amid recession fears while risk-on assets faltered. pic.twitter.com/5TAPHo0rDP
八月份,金价因经济衰退担忧而上涨,而风险资产却步履蹒跚。 pic.twitter.com/5TAPHo0rDP
— Crypto, Distilled (@DistilledCrypto) September 19, 2024
— 加密货币,蒸馏 (@DistilledCrypto) 2024 年 9 月 19 日
Another perspective comes from analyst Mads Eberhardt, who compared U.S. dollar liquidity with Bitcoin's price. While the two assets were correlated in the past, BTC's launch in February broke the trend.
另一种观点来自分析师 Mads Eberhardt,他将美元流动性与比特币的价格进行了比较。虽然这两种资产过去是相关的,但 BTC 在 2 月份的推出打破了这种趋势。
U.S. Dollar Liquidity and Bitcoin.
美元流动性和比特币。
The only significant divergence this year occurred with the U.S. ETF launch in January. Other than that, U.S. liquidity leads Bitcoin.
今年唯一的重大分歧发生在 1 月份美国 ETF 的推出。除此之外,美国的流动性领先于比特币。
Guess what happens starting in October. pic.twitter.com/cm5p1ffTri
猜猜从十月开始会发生什么。 pic.twitter.com/cm5p1ffTri
— Mads Eberhardt (@MadsEberhardt) September 17, 2024
- 麦兹·埃伯哈特 (@MadsEberhardt) 2024 年 9 月 17 日
Eberhardt predicts that U.S. dollar liquidity could fall in September, which might negatively impact Bitcoin's price.
Eberhardt 预测 9 月份美元流动性可能下降,这可能会对比特币的价格产生负面影响。
Despite the diverging trends, Bitcoin has risen by 16.2% over the past two weeks, according to CoinGecko. BTC recently reclaimed the $60,000 level, outperforming濤二濤 濤二濤, which has yet to fully recover from the August market crash.
根据 CoinGecko 的数据,尽管趋势有所不同,但比特币在过去两周内上涨了 16.2%。 BTC最近重回6万美元关口,表现优于尚未从8月市场崩盘中完全恢复的涛二涛。
The Bitcoin price history over the past month. Source: CoinGecko
过去一个月的比特币价格历史记录。来源:CoinGecko
As always, do your own research before making any trades.
一如既往,在进行任何交易之前先进行自己的研究。
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