比特币减半后焦点转向比特币现货 ETF 市场

焦点转向 BTC 现货 ETF 市场及其对比特币减半的反应。尽管避免了立即抛售，但 BTC 现货 ETF 市场流量数据可能至关重要。在上周净流出 2.043 亿美元之后，持续的流出可能会导致获利了结。相反，现货 ETF 带来的需求改善可能会吸引投资者。由于对美联储 2024 年多次降息的押注逐渐减弱，周一的数据将为本周定下基调。美联储的鹰派评论和经济指标（PMI、GDP、个人收入/支出）将影响买家的胃口。新的 BTC 现货 ETF 产品的表现，包括 Grayscale 的迷你信托和在香港推出的产品，将值得关注。

Bitcoin Halving Aftermath: Focus Shifts to BTC-Spot ETF Market

比特币减半后果：焦点转向 BTC 现货 ETF 市场

The cryptocurrency market is closely monitoring the impact of the recent Bitcoin halving event on the BTC-spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) market. Notably, the price of Bitcoin has remained relatively stable following the halving, suggesting that demand may be driving near-term price trends.

加密货币市场正在密切关注近期比特币减半事件对BTC现货交易所交易基金（ETF）市场的影响。值得注意的是，比特币价格在减半后保持相对稳定，这表明需求可能正在推动近期价格趋势。

However, market analysts are paying keen attention to BTC-spot ETF market flow data, which could provide pivotal insights in the coming days. After net outflows of $204.3 million in the week ending April 19, a sustained trend of net outflows could indicate profit-taking by investors. Conversely, an increase in demand through spot ETFs could attract fresh capital to the market.

然而，市场分析师正在密切关注 BTC 现货 ETF 市场流量数据，这些数据可能在未来几天提供关键的见解。截至 4 月 19 日当周净流出 2.043 亿美元，净流出持续趋势可能表明投资者获利了结。相反，现货 ETF 的需求增加可能会吸引新资本进入市场。

The upcoming BTC-spot ETF market flow data for Monday, April 22, is anticipated to set the tone for the week, particularly in light of fading expectations for multiple interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in 2024. Hawkish commentary from Fed officials last week is believed to have contributed to the recent outflows from the BTC-spot ETF market.

即将发布的 4 月 22 日星期一的 BTC 现货 ETF 市场流量数据预计将为本周定下基调，特别是考虑到对美联储 (Fed) 2024 年多次降息的预期逐渐减弱。美联储的鹰派评论据信，上周官员的行为导致了近期 BTC 现货 ETF 市场的资金流出。

The US economic calendar this week holds several events that could influence investor sentiment towards Bitcoin. The Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) on Tuesday, first-quarter GDP figures on Thursday, and the Personal Income and Outlays Report on Friday will be closely scrutinized by investors. A strong performance in the service sector, upbeat GDP numbers, and persistent inflation could further diminish expectations for a rate cut by the Fed in September. A less accommodative Fed stance could potentially dampen buyer demand for Bitcoin and offset the supply-demand dynamics created by the halving.

本周美国经济日历将举办几项可能影响投资者对比特币情绪的事件。周二的服务业采购经理人指数（PMI）、周四的第一季度GDP数据以及周五的个人收入和支出报告将受到投资者的密切关注。服务业的强劲表现、乐观的 GDP 数据以及持续的通胀可能会进一步削弱美联储 9 月份降息的预期。美联储不太宽松的立场可能会抑制买家对比特币的需求，并抵消减半造成的供需动态。

Amidst the evolving sentiment surrounding the Fed's interest rate path, the performance of recently launched BTC-spot ETF products is also drawing attention. The Grayscale mini Bitcoin Trust and the BTC-spot ETF launches in Hong Kong warrant close observation as potential bellwethers for the market's direction.

在围绕美联储利率路径的情绪不断变化的背景下，最近推出的 BTC 现货 ETF 产品的表现也引起关注。 Grayscale 迷你比特币信托基金和 BTC 现货 ETF 在香港推出，值得密切关注，作为市场走向的潜在风向标。

Commenting on the recent flow trends in the BTC-Spot ETF market, Bloomberg Intelligence Senior ETF Analyst Eric Balchunas said, "The trend of redemptions continues, but with a lower magnitude than in March. If redemptions continue consistently, we could see the total assets under management decline by ~$900 million per week."

Bloomberg Intelligence 高级 ETF 分析师 Eric Balchunas 在评论近期 BTC 现货 ETF 市场的流量趋势时表示：“赎回趋势仍在继续，但幅度低于 3 月份。如果赎回持续持续，我们可以看到总资产管理费用每周减少约 9 亿美元。”

As the market digests the implications of the Bitcoin halving and navigates the evolving macro environment, the BTC-spot ETF market remains a focal point for investors seeking exposure to the cryptocurrency. The upcoming flow data and economic indicators will provide crucial insights into the trajectory of the market in the days and weeks ahead.

随着市场消化比特币减半的影响并应对不断变化的宏观环境，比特币现货 ETF 市场仍然是寻求投资加密货币的投资者的焦点。即将发布的流量数据和经济指标将为未来几天和几周的市场轨迹提供重要的见解。