以太坊第 2 层扩展网络的市值将在几年内达到 1 万亿美元

投资管理公司 Van Eck 的分析师表示，以太坊的第 2 层扩展网络将经历显着增长，在六年内达到 1 万亿美元的市值。这些第 2 层区块链旨在解决以太坊在处理和存储数据方面的局限性，创建适合特定用例的专用链景观。

Ethereum's Layer 2 Scaling Networks Poised for Trillion-Dollar Market Capitalization

以太坊的第 2 层扩展网络有望实现数万亿美元的市值

According to a comprehensive report released on April 3 by investment management firm Van Eck, analysts predict that Ethereum's layer 2 (L2) scaling networks are poised to reach an astounding $1 trillion market capitalization within the next six years. This remarkable growth is anticipated to be driven by the proliferation of thousands of use case-specific chains that address the limitations of Ethereum's primary blockchain.

根据投资管理公司 Van Eck 4 月 3 日发布的综合报告，分析师预测以太坊第 2 层（L2）扩容网络有望在未来六年内达到惊人的 1 万亿美元市值。这一显着的增长预计将由数千个特定用例链的激增推动，这些链解决了以太坊主区块链的局限性。

Limitations of the Ethereum Network

以太坊网络的局限性

The analysts, Patrick Bush, senior digital assets investment analyst, and Matthew Sigel, digital assets research head, identified Ethereum's limited capacity to process, store, and compute data as its primary challenge. This inherent bottleneck leads to increased transaction fees and prolonged processing times, especially when the network experiences high usage.

高级数字资产投资分析师 Patrick Bush 和数字资产研究主管 Matthew Sigel 等分析师认为，以太坊处理、存储和计算数据的能力有限是其主要挑战。这种固有的瓶颈导致交易费用增加和处理时间延长，特别是当网络使用率很高时。

L2 Scaling Solutions

L2 扩展解决方案

To overcome these limitations, L2 scaling networks have emerged as a viable solution. These off-chain networks process transactions in parallel with the Ethereum main chain, significantly increasing transaction throughput and reducing fees. By leveraging specialized data-saving techniques, such as "Blobs" introduced in Ethereum's recent Dencun update, L2s further enhance their efficiency.

为了克服这些限制，L2 扩展网络已成为一种可行的解决方案。这些链下网络与以太坊主链并行处理交易，显着提高了交易吞吐量并降低了费用。通过利用专门的数据保存技术，例如以太坊最近的 Dencun 更新中引入的“Blob”，L2 进一步提高了效率。

Market Size and Growth Projections

市场规模和增长预测

Bush and Sigel employed a two-step approach to estimate the future market capitalization of L2 scaling networks. They initially assumed that Ethereum would maintain a dominant 60% market share among all public blockchains. Subsequently, they projected the total value of assets within the Ethereum ecosystem, based on historical data and current trends.

Bush 和 Sigel 采用两步法来估计 L2 扩展网络的未来市值。他们最初假设以太坊将在所有公共区块链中保持 60% 的主导市场份额。随后，他们根据历史数据和当前趋势预测了以太坊生态系统内资产的总价值。

Their analysis revealed that there are currently 46 active L2 scaling networks for Ethereum, with a combined total value locked of $39 billion. Arbitrum, the largest L2 network, accounts for $18 billion of this value.

他们的分析显示，目前以太坊有 46 个活跃的 L2 扩展网络，锁定的总价值达 390 亿美元。 Arbitrum 是最大的 L2 网络，其价值达 180 亿美元。

Long-Term Potential and Market Dynamics

长期潜力和市场动态

The analysts emphasize the substantial revenue-generating potential of L2s, which they anticipate will surpass that of the Ethereum base layer. This is attributed to L2s' superior transaction throughput and enhanced user experience compared to Ethereum.

分析师强调 L2 具有巨大的创收潜力，他们预计 L2 将超过以太坊基础层。这归因于与以太坊相比，L2 具有卓越的交易吞吐量和增强的用户体验。

However, the analysts also acknowledge the intense competition within the L2 market, which they believe could negatively impact the long-term value of many L2-related tokens. They noted that the fully diluted valuation of the top seven Ethereum L2 tokens currently exceeds $40 billion, and an influx of strong projects over the next 18 months could drive this valuation even higher, potentially to $100 billion.

然而，分析师也承认 L2 市场内的激烈竞争，他们认为这可能会对许多 L2 相关代币的长期价值产生负面影响。他们指出，目前排名前七的以太坊 L2 代币的完全摊薄估值超过 400 亿美元，未来 18 个月内强势项目的涌入可能会推动这一估值更高，有可能达到 1000 亿美元。

Diversification and Specialization

多元化与专业化

Bush and Sigel envision a future L2 landscape characterized by thousands of highly specialized chains, each tailored to specific use cases and applications. These L2s will be segmented by sector, function, or purpose. For example, decentralized social media platforms may have their own dedicated L2s, complete with bespoke applications.

Bush 和 Sigel 设想了未来的 L2 景观，其特征是数千个高度专业化的链，每个链都针对特定的用例和应用程序量身定制。这些 L2 将按部门、功能或目的进行细分。例如，去中心化社交媒体平台可能有自己专用的 L2，并配有定制应用程序。

Despite the proliferation of use case-specific L2s, the analysts anticipate that a few major players will emerge in the general-purpose L2 market. These chains will benefit from network effects, becoming more valuable as they attract more users.

尽管特定用例的 L2 不断增加，但分析师预计通用 L2 市场将出现一些主要参与者。这些链将受益于网络效应，随着吸引更多用户而变得更有价值。

Zero-Knowledge Framework

零知识框架

Furthermore, the analysts predict that most roll-up L2s will transition to a zero-knowledge framework (ZKU) in the future. ZKUs offer significant advantages, including improved scalability, privacy, and security.

此外，分析师预测，大多数 Roll-up L2 将在未来过渡到零知识框架（ZKU）。 ZKU 具有显着的优势，包括改进的可扩展性、隐私性和安全性。

In conclusion, Ethereum's L2 scaling networks are poised for exponential growth, with projections indicating a $1 trillion market capitalization within six years. Thousands of use case-specific chains will drive innovation and address the limitations of the Ethereum main chain. While intense competition could impact the long-term value of some L2 tokens, a few major players are expected to dominate the general-purpose L2 market. The emergence of ZKUs is also anticipated, offering further enhancements to the scalability and security of L2 networks.

总之，以太坊的 L2 扩展网络有望呈指数级增长，预计六年内市值将达到 1 万亿美元。数以千计的特定用例链将推动创新并解决以太坊主链的局限性。虽然激烈的竞争可能会影响某些 L2 代币的长期价值，但预计少数主要参与者将主导通用 L2 市场。 ZKU 的出现也是令人期待的，它将进一步增强 L2 网络的可扩展性和安全性。