以太坊 (ETH) 价格预测：2024 年 ETH 会突破 10,000 美元吗？

一段时间以来，以太坊的价格走势与比特币相比一直表现不佳，以至于无法回到3000美元以上。

The price of Ethereum (ETH) has been lagging behind Bitcoin (BTC) for some time now, failing to reclaim the 3,000 USD mark. However, some forecasts suggest that this trend may be set to reverse.

以太坊 (ETH) 的价格一段时间以来一直落后于比特币 (BTC)，未能重回 3,000 美元大关。然而，一些预测表明这种趋势可能会逆转。

While the price of ETH has soared to new yearly highs, reaching approximately 4,100 USD in early March, it has notably fallen short of setting new all-time highs, unlike BTC. Furthermore, ETH's decline from mid-March appears to have only come to a halt in September.

尽管 ETH 的价格已飙升至年度新高，在 3 月初达到约 4,100 美元，但与 BTC 不同，它明显未能创下历史新高。此外，ETH 自 3 月中旬以来的下跌似乎直到 9 月份才停止。

On September 6th, the price of ETH had dropped below 2,200 USD, but it has since remained above this threshold. Additionally, for the past ten days, the price has consistently remained above 2,500 USD.

9 月 6 日，ETH 价格跌破 2200 美元，但此后一直保持在这一阈值之上。此外，过去十天，价格一直保持在2,500美元以上。

These price levels are significantly lower than the peaks observed in 2024, with Ethereum currently sitting at a loss of -46% from its 2021 all-time highs, while Bitcoin is only at a loss of -13% from its all-time highs in March 2024.

这些价格水平明显低于 2024 年观察到的峰值，以太坊目前较 2021 年历史高点下跌 -46%，而比特币仅较 2021 年历史高点下跌 -13%。 2024 年 3 月。

To better understand this price dynamic, it is helpful to examine the historical trend of the ETH price expressed in BTC. Currently, the rate is 0.04 BTC per ETH, which is notably low. The last time the price was at this level was in April 2021.

为了更好地理解这种价格动态，检查以 BTC 表示的 ETH 价格的历史趋势会有所帮助。目前，1 ETH 的汇率为 0.04 BTC，这是非常低的。上次价格达到这一水平是在 2021 年 4 月。

During the altseason of April/May 2021, Ethereum surged to 0.077 BTC, eventually reaching 0.085 BTC in November of the same year, when it also set its all-time high in USD.

在 2021 年 4 月/5 月的山寨季期间，以太坊飙升至 0.077 BTC，最终在同年 11 月达到 0.085 BTC，当时它也创下了以美元计价的历史新高。

Until the transition to Proof-of-Stake in September 2022, the price of Ethereum in Bitcoin remained above 0.08 BTC, albeit not consistently. However, over the past two years, the price seems to be continuously falling.

在 2022 年 9 月过渡到权益证明之前，比特币中以太坊的价格一直保持在 0.08 BTC 以上，尽管并非始终如此。然而，近两年来，价格似乎持续下跌。

While the price of Ethereum has been lagging behind Bitcoin for two years, this is not surprising as it is typically the norm. During bull runs, ETH often outperforms BTC, while in bear markets and the early stages of crypto market growth, ETH tends to underperform. Bitcoin usually initiates these later stages.

虽然以太坊的价格已经落后于比特币两年了，但这并不奇怪，因为这通常是常态。在牛市期间，ETH 的表现通常优于 BTC，而在熊市和加密货币市场增长的早期阶段，ETH 的表现往往较差。比特币通常会启动这些后期阶段。

Predictions on the price of Bitcoin and Ethereum: ETH above 10,000 USD

比特币和以太坊价格预测：ETH突破10,000美元

In light of this, it seems logical to predict that, if a new bull run were to occur, the above trend could reverse, with Ethereum beginning to outperform Bitcoin.

有鉴于此，似乎可以合乎逻辑地预测，如果出现新的牛市，上述趋势可能会逆转，以太坊开始跑赢比特币。

Considering the all-time high of almost 4,900 USD set by Ethereum in November 2021, some believe that the second largest cryptocurrency could reach 10,000 USD next year.

考虑到以太坊在 2021 年 11 月创下的近 4,900 美元的历史新高，一些人认为第二大加密货币明年可能会达到 10,000 美元。

Julien Bittel, the head of macroeconomic research at Global Macro Investor, specifically pointed out how the price trend of ETH in 2024 closely mirrors that of 2023.

Global Macro Investor宏观经济研究主管Julien Bittel特别指出，2024年ETH的价格走势与2023年的走势非常接近。

In 2023, the price initially rose from 1,500 USD to over 2,000 USD, then dropped back to 1,600 USD, only to take off at the end of the year, reaching 3,500 USD.

2023年，价格最初从1,500美元上涨到2,000多美元，然后又回落到1,600美元，直到年底才开始上涨，达到3,500美元。

If the end of 2024 were to follow the same trend as 2023, it could close the year well above 10,000 USD, perhaps even around 20,000 USD.

如果 2024 年底遵循与 2023 年相同的趋势，年底时价格可能远高于 10,000 美元，甚至可能在 20,000 美元左右。

However, a comparison with the previous year is insufficient to support a forecast. Despite this, numerous analysts still set 10,000 USD as a possible target by the end of the year.

然而，与上一年的比较不足以支持预测。尽管如此，众多分析师仍将 10,000 美元作为年底的可能目标。

There are also similarities with the bull phases of 2017-2018 and 2020-2021.

与 2017-2018 年和 2020-2021 年的牛市阶段也有相似之处。

The trend reversal

趋势逆转

The key factor seems to be the reversal in ETH's performance relative to BTC.

关键因素似乎是 ETH 相对于 BTC 的表现逆转。

For now, such a reversal has not yet occurred, given that ETH is at its lowest on BTC since April 2021, and it might not even happen in the medium/short term.

就目前而言，鉴于 ETH 相对于 BTC 已处于 2021 年 4 月以来的最低点，这种逆转尚未发生，甚至中短期内也可能不会发生。

It should be noted that Bitcoin usually initiates bull run crypto cycles, and in the early stages of a bull run crypto, Bitcoin tends to outpace the prices of all the main altcoins.

应该指出的是，比特币通常会引发加密货币牛市周期，并且在加密货币牛市的早期阶段，比特币的价格往往会超过所有主要山寨币的价格。

However, if a true bull run were to begin, the altcoins could follow the rise of BTC, albeit underperforming it, and thus the price of Ethereum could also start to grow again, albeit less than that of Bitcoin.

然而，如果真正的牛市开始，山寨币可能会追随 BTC 的上涨，尽管表现不佳，因此以太坊的价格也可能开始再次上涨，尽管涨幅低于比特币。

This could bring Ethereum back to its highs, but it would most likely not be enough to reach 10,000 USD. At some point, however, in the case of a bull run, the rise of

这可能会让以太坊回到高点，但很可能不足以达到 10,000 美元。然而，在牛市的某个时刻，