以太坊（ETH）处于关键的十字路口

在不断变化的加密货币世界中，按市值计算的第二大数字资产以太坊（ETH）发现自己处于关键时刻。

In the dynamic realm of cryptocurrency, the second-largest digital asset, Ethereum (ETH), finds itself at a pivotal juncture. After a valiant attempt to breach the $2,200 resistance level, the renowned crypto analyst MadWhale predicts a 13% drop, potentially setting sights on $1,700.

在加密货币的动态领域中，第二大数字资产以太坊（ETH）发现自己处于关键点。在违反2200美元的电阻水平的英勇企图之后，这位著名的加密分析师Madwhale预测下降了13％，有可能将目光投向1,700美元。

This prediction, fueled by technical observations and shifting market sentiment, has sparked discussion within the crypto sphere. As we delve into the essence of MadWhale’s assertion and examine the broader technical landscape, external market factors, and their implications for investors, a clear picture begins to emerge.

这一预测以技术观察和不断变化的市场情绪为推动，引发了加密货币领域的讨论。当我们深入研究Madwhale主张的本质，并研究更广泛的技术格局，外部市场因素及其对投资者的影响时，明确的情况开始出现。

Technical Woes Brewing: Can Ethereum Recover?

技术困境酿造：以太坊可以恢复吗？

MadWhale, a respected analyst on the popular trading platform TradingView, has expressed concerns about Ethereum’s failure to decisively break through the $2,200 resistance level. Throughout history, this price point has acted as a significant barrier, with sellers consistently outpacing buyers whenever ETH approaches this level.

受欢迎的交易平台交易景观的备受推崇的分析师Madwhale表示担心以太坊未能果断地突破2,200美元的电阻水平。在整个历史上，这个价格点一直是一个重大的障碍，每当ETH接近这一水平时，卖方都会始终超过买家。

“We’ve hit this level three times now, and each time, sellers have come in strong, setting up a bearish bias,” MadWhale remarked.

“我们已经达到了三遍，每次卖方都变得强大，产生了看跌的偏见，” Madwhale说。

Moreover, MadWhale notes that Ethereum is struggling to maintain bullish momentum, evident in the decreasing Relative Strength Index (RSI) on shorter time frames. This indicates a decline in buying pressure and edges Ethereum into oversold territory.

此外，Madwhale指出，以太坊正在努力保持看涨的势头，这在较短的时间范围的相对强度指数（RSI）的降低中很明显。这表明购买压力的下降，并将以太坊的超额销售压力降低。

A further decline in RSI could confirm that downward momentum is likely to persist. Additionally, the 50-day moving average (MA), which represents short-term price trends, has crossed below the 200-day MA—a pattern known as the “Death Cross.” This is a widely recognized bearish signal, often indicating the start of a prolonged downtrend.

RSI的进一步下降可以证实下降势头可能会持续存在。此外，代表短期价格趋势的50天移动平均线（MA）越过200天的MA，这种模式称为“死亡十字架”。这是一个公认的看跌信号，通常表明延长下降趋势的开始。

However, it’s worth noting that the 50-day MA has crossed above the 200-day MA on the weekly time frame, forming a “Golden Cross.” This is a bullish pattern that spans longer time periods and could suggest a return to uptrends later in the year.

但是，值得注意的是，在每周的时间范围内，50天的MA已经超过200天的MA，形成了“ Golden Cross”。这是一种看涨的模式，它跨越了更长的时间段，可能建议今年晚些时候恢复上升趋势。

As we move into the final stages of 2023, macroeconomic data and technical analysis will be crucial for determining the next chapter in Ethereum’s price movement.

随着我们进入2023年的最后阶段，宏观经济数据和技术分析对于确定以太坊价格运动的下一章至关重要。

Examining the Technical Landscape: Key Levels and Indicators

检查技术格局：关键水平和指标

At present, Ethereum is encountering resistance around the $2,200 level, a price point that has posed challenges for buyers in the past. A breakdown of this resistance could open the door for further downside toward the next support zone, which is around $1,700.

目前，以太坊遇到了2200美元左右的阻力，这是过去对买家带来的挑战。这种阻力的故障可能会为下一个支撑区的进一步偏低打开大门，该区域约为1,700美元。

This level of support is crucial as it represents a significant Fibonacci retracement level and could slow down any sharp declines. However, if selling pressure intensifies and pushes Ethereum below $1,700, the next support zone would be around $1,500.

这种支持水平至关重要，因为它代表了显着的斐波那契回回层水平，并且可能会减缓任何急剧下降。但是，如果销售压力加剧并将以太坊推高至1,700美元以下，那么下一个支持区将约为1,500美元。

In the current market conditions, it’s clear that sellers have the upper hand, especially as we observe declining trading volume, suggesting a lack of strong buying interest at current price levels.

在当前的市场条件下，很明显，卖方占上风，尤其是当我们观察到交易量下降时，表明当前价格水平的购买兴趣不足。

This low-volume decline suggests that bearish momentum is building, making ETH more vulnerable to further downside. However, if we see an increase in trading volume alongside a move to the downside, it could indicate that there is still plenty of interest in selling ETH at higher prices.

这种低量的下降表明，看跌势头正在建立，使ETH更容易受到进一步的不利影响。但是，如果我们看到交易量的增加以及转移到不利的一面，则可能表明，以更高的价格出售ETH仍然有很多兴趣。

External Factors Influencing Ethereum’s Bearish Outlook

影响以太坊看跌前景的外部因素

Beyond the technical analysis, several external factors could contribute to bearish pressure on Ethereum in the coming weeks.

除了技术分析之外，在接下来的几周内，几个外部因素可能导致对以太坊的看跌压力。

One key factor is the broader macroeconomic environment. Concerns about inflation, interest rate hikes, and economic slowdowns are impacting risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. As investors become more cautious, it could lead to reduced demand for digital assets like ETH.

一个关键因素是更广泛的宏观经济环境。对通货膨胀，利率上升和经济放缓的担忧正在影响风险资产，包括加密货币。随着投资者变得越来越谨慎，可能会导致对ETH等数字资产的需求减少。

Moreover, regulatory uncertainty remains a major challenge for the crypto industry. With governments around the world tightening regulations on digital assets, institutional investors remain hesitant to fully commit. Any unfavorable rulings or restrictions could have a significant bearing on ETH’s price.

此外，监管不确定性仍然是加密行业的主要挑战。随着世界各地的政府收紧数字资产的法规，机构投资者仍然犹豫不决。任何不利的裁决或限制都可能与ETH的价格相关。

Another factor to consider is the correlation between Bitcoin (BTC) and other cryptocurrencies. As the flagship cryptocurrency, Bitcoin often dictates the overall market trend.

要考虑的另一个因素是比特币（BTC）与其他加密货币之间的相关性。作为旗舰加密货币，比特币经常决定整体市场趋势。

If Bitcoin experiences a sharp correction, it’s likely that Ethereum and other altcoins would follow suit due to the strong correlation between them.

如果比特币经历了急剧的纠正，则以太坊和其他山寨币可能会效仿，因为它们之间的相关性很强。

Finally, the development of Ethereum’s network, including its transition to Ethereum 2.0 and Layer-2 scaling solutions, will be closely watched by investors.

最后，投资者将密切关注以太坊网络的发展，包括其向以太坊2.0和2层扩展解决方案的过渡。

Any delays, security vulnerabilities, or setbacks in these upgrades could erode investor confidence and contribute to bearish sentiment.

这些升级的任何延误，安全漏洞或挫折都可能削弱投资者的信心，并为看跌的情绪做出贡献。

Potential Scenarios for Ethereum’s Price Action

以太坊价格行动的潜在场景

Considering the current bearish signals and technical analysis, here are the possible scenarios for Ethereum’s price movement in the coming weeks:

考虑到当前的看跌信号和技术分析，以下几周内以太坊价格变动的情况可能是：

* Scenario 1: A surprising bullish rebound. If, against the odds, Ethereum manages to break decisively above $2,200 with a return of strong trading volume, it could signal a bullish reversal. This would invalidate the bearish outlook and potentially push ETH toward $2,400–$2,500. However, to achieve this breakout, buyers would need

*场景1：令人惊讶的看涨反弹。如果以赔率的赔率，以太坊设法果断地超过2,200美元，而交易量的回报率很高，则可能标志着看涨的逆转。这将使看跌前景无效，并可能将ETH推向2,400-2500美元。但是，为了实现这一突破，买家需要