Ether（ETH）价格继续与比特币（BTC）斗争，威胁到更多的缺点

由于比特币（BTC）目前为59.19％，这可能是Ether（ETH）的本地底部，还是会继续失去针对BTC的市场份额？

Ether (ETH) price continues to struggle, particularly against Bitcoin, threatening more potential downside for the world’s second-largest cryptocurrency.

Ether（ETH）价格继续挣扎，尤其是与比特币打击，威胁到世界第二大加密货币的潜在缺点。

With Bitcoin (BTC) currently at 59.19% could this be the local bottom for Ether (ETH) or will it keep losing market share against BTC?

由于比特币（BTC）目前为59.19％，这可能是Ether（ETH）的本地底部，还是会继续失去针对BTC的市场份额？

ETH/BTC Hits New 4-Year Low H2

ETH/BTC命中新的4年低H2

Ether’s price against Bitcoin has hit a four-year low last seen in December 2020, as the world’s largest altcoin extended losses against its larger rival.

Ether对比特币的价格已达到2020年12月的四年低点，因为全球最大的Altcoin延长了损失。

One ETH dropped to 0.024 BTC on Sunday March 3, 50% down over the last 12 months, as US President Donald Trump’s trade measures continue to rattle the market. The ETH/BTC ratio peaked at 0.081 in December 2021.

3月3日星期日，一个ETH降至0.024 BTC，在过去的12个月中下降了50％，因为美国总统唐纳德·特朗普的贸易措施继续颠覆了市场。 ETH/BTC比率在2021年12月为0.081。

ETH/BTC Weekly Chart. Source: TradingView

ETH/BTC每周图表。资料来源：TradingView

“Ethereum's underperformance against Bitcoin, reflected in the ETH/BTC ratio hitting a four-year low, is driven by Bitcoin's institutional dominance,” said Chief Analyst Ryan Lee at Bitget Research.

Bitget Research的首席分析师Ryan Lee说：“以太坊对比特币的表现不佳，反映在ETH/BTC比率达到四年低位的情况下是由比特币的机构统治驱动的。”

According to Lee, lack of a clear narrative for Ethereum and “weaker network activity, and a shift in speculative interest toward other altcoins threatens further downside for the coin.

根据李的说法，缺乏对以太坊和“网络活动较弱的叙述，投机兴趣转向其他山寨币的转变威胁到硬币的进一步缺点。

“This trend may persist in the near term as Bitcoin maintains its momentum and Ethereum faces competitive challenges.”

“随着比特币保持动力，以太坊面临竞争挑战，这种趋势可能会在短期内持续。”

Strategy founder Michael Saylor believes that Ether’s weakness is a result of people rotating their capital into Bitcoin as “real sound money.”

战略创始人迈克尔·塞勒（Michael Saylor）认为，以太的弱点是人们将其资本旋转为“真正的合理金钱”的结果。

Trump’s ETH Accumulation Does Little to Boost Ether’s Price

特朗普的ETH积累几乎对Ether的价格无济于事

Donald Trump’s World Liberty Financial (WLF) has aggressively accumulated ETH, amassing over 86,000 ETH valued at roughly $421 million by the time of his inauguration last January 20.

唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）的世界自由金融（WLF）积极地积累了ETH，到去年1月20日就职时，超过86,000 ETH的价值约为4.21亿美元。

Despite this significant buying spree, ETH’s price has stubbornly underperformed Bitcoin, hovering around $2,000 as of March 10, 2025.

尽管大狂欢狂，但ETH的价格却顽固地表现出了比特币，截至2025年3月10日，徘徊在2,000美元左右。

Several factors explain this lack of impact. Firstly, the broader crypto market has been dominated by Bitcoin’s surge, fuelled by its "digital gold” narrative and $35 billion flows into spot Bitcoin ETFs since their launch on Jan. 11, 2024. This overshadows Ethereum’s $2.6 billion ETF performance since its launch in July 2024.

几个因素解释了这种缺乏影响。首先，自2024年1月11日推出以来，其“数字黄金”叙事的推动力为比特币的激增，其“数字黄金”的叙述和350亿美元流入现货比特币ETF。这一颠覆了Ethereum自2024年7月推出以来，Ethereum的26亿美元ETF绩效。

Bitcoin vs. Ethereum ETF flows. Source: Farside Investors

比特币与以太坊ETF流动。资料来源：Farside Investors

Secondly, Ethereum faces internal challenges: an inflationary supply post-Merge (up 5.4% since February 2024), delayed upgrades like Pectra, and competition from faster blockchains like Solana, which dilute its appeal.

其次，以太坊面临内部挑战：合并后的通货膨胀供应（自2024年2月以来增长了5.4％），延迟了像Pectra这样的升级，以及诸如Solana之类的更快区块链的竞争，稀释其吸引力。

WLF’s purchases, while substantial—peaking at $340 million in net inflows by February—represent a small fraction of ETH’s $260 billion market cap, limiting their ability to move the needle. In addition, WLF’s subsequent transfers of ETH to exchanges like Coinbase Prime (e.g., $175 million in February) signal potential selling pressure, offsetting bullish sentiment.

WLF的购买量虽然是2月份的净流入量为3.4亿美元的净流入，但它表明了ETH的2600亿美元市值的一小部分，这限制了他们移动针头的能力。此外，WLF随后将ETH转移给了Coinbase Prime（例如2月份的1.75亿美元）等交流，这表明了潜在的销售压力，从而抵消了看涨的情绪。

Moreover, the recent excitement about the White House’s inaugural Crypto Summit on March 7 and optimism about Ether’s potential inclusion in a US strategic crypto reserve have quickly faded.

此外，最近关于3月7日白宫就职加密峰会的兴奋以及Ether对美国战略加密保护区潜在包含的乐观情绪迅速消失了。

Despite initial enthusiasm, Trump’s Working Group on Digital Assets clarified that the mentioned cryptocurrencies, namely Ethereum, Solana (SOL), Cardano (ADA), and Ripple (XRP), were merely illustrative examples and not official selections for the US strategic crypto reserve.

尽管有最初的热情，但特朗普关于数字资产的工作组澄清说，提到的加密货币，即以太坊，索拉纳（Sol），卡达诺（ADA）和Ripple（XRP），仅仅是说明性的例子，而不是美国战略加密保护区的官方选择。

Furthermore, available reports indicate that the US government holds minimal amounts of ETH in contrast to BTC. The reported figures suggest holdings ranging from around 50,000 ETH (approximately $117.8 million in August 2024) to as high as 200,000 ETH (roughly $710 million as of early March 2025), whereas the US is seen favouring Bitcoin with the recent announcement of a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and an estimated $17.7 billion in BTC holdings.

此外，可用的报告表明，与BTC相比，美国政府的ETH数量最低。报道的数据表明，持有量从约50,000 ETH（2024年8月约1.178亿美元）到高达200,000 ETH（截至2025年3月上旬的7.1亿美元），而在最近宣布的战略比特币储备和BTC持有量估计为177亿美元的BTC持有中，美国受到比特币的偏爱。

It was recently revealed that Trump’s broader stockpile strategy, focused on altcoins, is winding down with no new purchases being made. This revelation had an immediate impact, triggering a 15% decline in Ether’s price.

最近透露，特朗普的更广泛的库存战略以山寨币为重点，未进行新的购买。这种启示立即产生了影响，使以太价格下降了15％。

Therefore, unless a strong Ethereum-specific catalyst emerges or there's a shift in market dynamics, WLF’s accumulation, although noteworthy, might not be enough to counter these headwinds and propel ETH's price upwards despite the significant sums involved.

因此，除非出现强大的以太坊特异性催化剂或市场动态发生了变化，否则WLF的积累虽然值得注意，但尽管涉及大量款项，但仍不足以应对这些逆势和推动ETH的价格。

Key Ether Price Levels to Watch

关键的以太价格水平要观看

Ethereum breached the $3,000 level in November 2024 before retracing to the current levels just above $2,000. Traders are now focused on key areas around this level, which ETH price might revisit soon.

以太坊违反了2024年11月的$ 3,000水平，然后回顾了当前水平，略高于$ 2,000。现在，交易者专注于该水平的关键领域，ETH价格可能很快可能会重新访问。

Notably:

尤其：

ETH/USD weekly chart

ETH/USD每周图表