狗狗币 (DOGE) 持有者出现吸筹迹象，但买家是否会将 DOGE 推向 0.7 美元高点及以上？

狗狗币 [DOGE] 在 36 小时内上涨 18%，从周一的低点 0.3097 美元升至周三的 0.3653 美元。这一举动使 memecoin 重新测试了 0.36 美元的阻力区

Dogecoin [DOGE] gained by 18% in 36 hours to move from Monday’s lows at $0.3097 to $0.3653 on Wednesday. This move saw the memecoin retest the $0.36 resistance zone that has been a significant area of demand, then supply, since mid-November.

狗狗币 [DOGE] 在 36 小时内上涨 18%，从周一的低点 0.3097 美元升至周三的 0.3653 美元。这一举动使 memecoin 重新测试了 0.36 美元的阻力区，自 11 月中旬以来，该阻力区一直是需求和供应的重要区域。

The drop in daily active addresses was a concern, but other metrics indicated some HODL behavior and accumulation. A rise in Open Interest and analysis of the DOGE/BTC pair showed that the $0.3 level could be a floor for Dogecoin in 2025. Are the buyers showing signs of intent to push towards the $0.7 highs and beyond?

每日活跃地址的下降令人担忧，但其他指标表明存在一些 HODL 行为和积累。未平仓合约的增加以及对 DOGE/BTC 货币对的分析表明，0.3 美元的水平可能是狗狗币在 2025 年的底线。买家是否表现出意图推向 0.7 美元高点及以上的迹象？

Examining Dogecoin holders’ behavior

检查狗狗币持有者的行为

Santiment data showed the realized cap HODL waves across different timebound intervals. Realized cap is a concept that uses the value of each coin when it was last transacted to calculate its market cap. Usually, the current market price is multiplied by the circulating supply to get the market cap.

情绪数据显示了不同时间间隔内已实现的上限 HODL 波。已实现上限是一个概念，使用每种代币上次交易时的价值来计算其市值。通常，当前市场价格乘以流通供应量即可得出市值。

This difference in calculation gives a more accurate estimation of the value of a crypto asset and can be used to create various other metrics, such as MVRV.

这种计算上的差异可以更准确地估计加密资产的价值，并可用于创建各种其他指标，例如 MVRV。

The realized cap HODL waves in the chart below is a percentage value. The HODL waves are calculated as a percentage of the total realized cap for each time interval of holders. It can give a keener insight into market participants’ behavior.

下图中的已实现上限 HODL 波浪是一个百分比值。 HODL 波按持有者每个时间间隔的已实现总上限的百分比计算。它可以更敏锐地洞察市场参与者的行为。

The chart outlined the growth in realized cap from 7-days to 90-days. This pointed to a hike in trading or buying activity in this short to medium period. During the previous cycle top in April 2021, the 30-60 day realized cap HODL waves hit a value of almost 49% a month after DOGE’s all-time high.

该图表概述了已实现上限从 7 天到 90 天的增长情况。这表明中短期内交易或购买活动将会增加。在 2021 年 4 月的上一个周期顶部期间，30-60 天已实现上限 HODL 波浪在 DOGE 创下历史新高一个月后达到近 49% 的值。

At the time of writing, this HODL wave was at 27%. The 1-7 day HODL wave has been in a decline in recent weeks as well. Usually, in a strong run higher, this short-term holder cohort has a wildly higher realized cap percentage, reaching 52% around the previous cycle’s top.

截至撰写本文时，该 HODL 浪潮为 27%。最近几周，1-7 天的 HODL 浪潮也在下降。通常，在强劲的走高过程中，短期持有者群体的实现上限百分比要高得多，在上一个周期的顶部附近达到 52%。

Realistic or not, here’s DOGE’s market cap in BTC’s terms

不管现实与否，这是以 BTC 计算的 DOGE 市值

Meanwhile, the 90-day to 365-day HODL waves have also fallen in percentage. This meant that longer-term holders were selling their tokens and realizing a profit. This could be a consequence of the shift in market sentiment over the past six weeks.

与此同时，90天至365天的HODL波的百分比也有所下降。这意味着长期持有者正在出售他们的代币并实现利润。这可能是过去六周市场情绪转变的结果。

The reduced short-term HODL waves meant these holders were reluctant to sell and expected more gains. The uptick in the 7-90 day realized cap HODL waves was also encouraging.

短期持有浪潮的减少意味着这些持有者不愿出售并期望获得更多收益。 7-90 天已实现上限 HODL 浪潮的上升也令人鼓舞。