分析师称 SEC 领导层可能发生变动，预计加密货币 ETF 到 2025 年将激增

彭博社分析师埃里克·巴尔丘纳斯 (Eric Balchunas) 和詹姆斯·塞法特 (James Seyffart) 预测，到 2025 年，加密货币 ETF 数量将激增，理由是 SEC 领导层可能会因支持加密货币而发生变化。

Bloomberg analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart are predicting a surge in cryptocurrency ETFs by 2025, thanks in part to potential SEC leadership changes with pro-crypto advocate Paul Atkins' nomination. They expect a more favorable environment for ETFs linked to major tokens like Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, and others.

彭博社分析师埃里克·巴尔丘纳斯 (Eric Balchunas) 和詹姆斯·塞法特 (James Seyffart) 预测，到 2025 年，加密货币 ETF 数量将激增，部分原因是支持加密货币倡导者保罗·阿特金斯 (Paul Atkins) 提名后，美国证券交易委员会 (SEC) 领导层可能发生变动。他们预计，与比特币、以太坊、XRP 等主要代币相关的 ETF 将会有更有利的环境。

Here's what to expect in the next few years:

以下是未来几年的预期：

Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs will likely lead the way in 2025. These products are aligned with existing regulatory frameworks, increasing their chances of approval. Companies like Hashdex, Franklin Templeton, and Bitwise are expected to introduce Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs.

比特币和以太坊 ETF 可能会在 2025 年引领潮流。这些产品与现有监管框架保持一致，增加了获得批准的机会。 Hashdex、富兰克林邓普顿和 Bitwise 等公司预计将推出比特币和以太坊 ETF。

Don't expect Solana and XRP ETFs right away. Both cryptocurrencies are entangled in legal disputes regarding their classification as securities. XRP's parent company, Ripple, has been engaged in a lengthy legal battle with the SEC, while Solana faces similar scrutiny. Any ETF tied to these tokens will likely be delayed until the new SEC leadership clarifies the regulatory status.

不要指望 Solana 和 XRP ETF 会立即出现。这两种加密货币都卷入了有关其证券分类的法律纠纷。 XRP 的母公司 Ripple 一直在与 SEC 进行漫长的法律斗争，而 Solana 也面临着类似的审查。任何与这些代币相关的 ETF 都可能会被推迟，直到新的 SEC 领导层澄清监管状况。

In contrast, Litecoin and HBAR ETFs are more likely to gain approval. Litecoin's close association with Bitcoin—a fork of the Bitcoin blockchain—gives it a distinct advantage in regulatory discussions. Similarly, HBAR has avoided classification as a security, so it faces fewer legal problems.

相比之下，莱特币和 HBAR ETF 更有可能获得批准。莱特币与比特币（比特币区块链的一个分支）的密切联系使其在监管讨论中具有明显的优势。同样，HBAR 避免了被归类为证券，因此面临的法律问题较少。

However, the demand for these ETFs remains uncertain. Only a few issuers have expressed interest in launching Litecoin and HBAR ETFs, which may limit their market impact.

然而，对这些 ETF 的需求仍然不确定。只有少数发行人表示有兴趣推出莱特币和 HBAR ETF，这可能会限制它们的市场影响。

The approval of cryptocurrency ETFs in the U.S. has been a slow and winding road, largely due to the regulatory uncertainty surrounding digital assets. While the SEC has approved several Bitcoin futures ETFs, the highly anticipated spot Bitcoin ETFs faced significant delays.

美国加密货币 ETF 的批准是一条缓慢而曲折的道路，很大程度上是由于数字资产的监管不确定性。尽管 SEC 已批准了几只比特币期货 ETF，但备受期待的比特币现货 ETF 却面临严重延误。

The Trump administration had appointed several pro-cryptocurrency figures to the SEC, including Commissioner Hester Peirce, who has been a vocal advocate for approving spot Bitcoin ETFs. However, the Biden administration has yet to fill key positions at the SEC, and the nominees are expected to face scrutiny from both parties in the Senate.

特朗普政府已向 SEC 任命了几名支持加密货币的人士，其中包括委员 Hester Peirce，她一直大力倡导批准现货比特币 ETF。不过，拜登政府尚未填补美国证券交易委员会的关键职位，提名人预计将面临参议院两党的审查。

Despite the delays, the growing demand from investors and the changing regulatory landscape are setting the stage for a potential breakthrough in the approval of altcoin ETFs in the next few years.

尽管出现了延误，但投资者不断增长的需求和不断变化的监管环境正在为未来几年山寨币 ETF 审批的潜在突破奠定基础。