加密货币分析师本杰明·考恩（Benjamin Cowen）讨论了最新的消费者价格指数报告及其对比特币（BTC）和更广泛的市场的潜在影响

加密货币分析师本杰明·科恩（Benjamin Cowen）讨论了最新的消费者价格指数报告及其对比特币BTC/USD的潜在影响和更广泛的市场

Renowned cryptocurrency analyst Benjamin Cowen has shared his thoughts on the latest Consumer Price Index report and its potential implications for Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) and the broader market, highlighting the delicate balance between inflation and unemployment rates.

著名的加密货币分析师本杰明·科恩（Benjamin Cowen）分享了他对最新的消费者价格指数报告及其对比特币（Crypto：BTC）和更广泛的市场的潜在影响的想法，突显了通货膨胀和失业率之间的微妙平衡。

What Happened: In his latest podcast on Wednesday, Cowen discussed how the 10-year Treasury yield affects Bitcoin's price action.

发生了什么：在周三的最新播客中，Cowen讨论了10年的国库收益率如何影响比特币的价格行动。

He pointed out that Bitcoin struggled in 2023 when yields rose and only recovered once yields peaked. This suggests that Bitcoin may face further headwinds if yields continue to climb.

他指出，比特币在2023年挣扎时挣扎，当时产量上升，只有一旦产量达到峰值才能恢复。这表明，如果收益率继续攀升，比特币可能会面临进一步的逆风。

Cowen also warned that a significant rise in either inflation or unemployment could disrupt the market cycles that he has been tracking, increasing the likelihood of a left-translated cycle — meaning Bitcoin's peak could come earlier than expected.

Cowen还警告说，通货膨胀或失业率的大幅上升可能会破坏他一直在跟踪的市场周期，从而增加了左翻译周期的可能性，这意味着比特币的峰值可能比预期的要早。

“The two things that matter the most for a favorable market cycle, if you will, or a normal market cycle, is that both of these two metrics have to be behaving themselves,” said Cowen, referring to inflation and unemployment rates.

科恩说：“如果愿意的话，或者是正常的市场周期，这两件事最重要的是，这两个指标都必须表现出来。”

“If either of those two metrics go up a lot — if there’s a big spike in the inflation rate or a big spike in the unemployment rate — then the odds of a left translated cycle would go up a lot. This means Bitcoin's peak could come earlier than expected.”

“如果这两个指标中的任何一个上升了很多 - 如果通货膨胀率有很大的峰值或失业率的飙升，那么左翻译周期的几率就会上升很多。这意味着比特币的峰值可能比预期的要早。”

Cowen noted that headline inflation came in slightly above expectations at 3.3%, continuing an upward trend since the Federal Reserve began cutting interest rates in September 2024.

Cowen指出，由于美联储于2024年9月开始降低利率以来，标题通货膨胀率略高于3.3％的预期，持续了上升趋势。

While acknowledging similarities to the 1970s inflation pattern, Cowen doesn't believe a repeat of that scenario is the most likely outcome.

尽管承认与1970年代通货膨胀模式的相似之处，但Cowen不认为重复这种情况是最可能的结果。

He emphasized the importance of the Fed's response, saying, “As long as the FED doesn’t cave you know to political pressures and aggressively cut interest rates more than they really need to,” a severe inflationary spiral could be avoided.

他强调了美联储回应的重要性，他说：“只要美联储不知道政治压力，积极降低利率超出了他们真正需要的，”这是一个严重的通货膨胀螺旋形。

Why It Matters: Recent data has shown a sticky inflation pattern, with headline inflation remaining stubbornly high despite the Fed's efforts to curb it through interest rate hikes.

它为什么重要：最近的数据显示出通货膨胀模式，尽管美联储通过利率上涨遏制它的努力，但头条通货膨胀率仍然很高。

The central bank is now pivoting to smaller rate hikes and pausing later in 2025.

中央银行现在正朝着较小的速率远足，并于2025年晚些时候停下来。

Economists widely expect the unemployment rate to rise in the coming months as the impact of the Fed's rate hikes on the economy becomes more evident.

经济学家普遍认为，随着美联储加息对经济的影响的影响更大，失业率将在未来几个月内提高。

Higher unemployment could put pressure on the Biden administration and the Fed to ease monetary policy, potentially leading to a rise in inflation.

较高的失业率可能会对拜登政府和美联储缓解货币政策施加压力，这可能导致通货膨胀率上升。

Cowen's analysis suggests that a favorable market cycle, as he has been tracking it, is contingent on both inflation and unemployment rates remaining “well behaved.”

Cowen的分析表明，正如他一直在追踪的那样，有利的市场周期取决于通货膨胀率和失业率，“行为良好”。

A significant deviation in either metric could alter his projections and impact Bitcoin's price trajectory.

这两个度量标准的重大偏差可能会改变他的预测并影响比特币的价格轨迹。

See More: Raoul Pal Predicts Bitcoin To Hit $250,000 To $350,000 Under One Condition

查看更多：Raoul Pal预测比特币在一个条件下达到25万至350,000美元