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美联储的研究表明,加密货币拥有量并没有随着近期加密货币市场的反弹而增加。
As the cryptocurrency market experiences a surge in 2023, with Bitcoin prices rising by nearly 150% from the start of the year, one might expect a corresponding increase in cryptocurrency ownership among the U.S. population. However, recent research from the Federal Reserve reveals a surprising disconnect between the market's performance and the rate of crypto adoption.
随着加密货币市场在 2023 年经历飙升,比特币价格较年初上涨近 150%,人们可能预计美国人口的加密货币拥有量也会相应增加。然而,美联储最近的研究表明,市场表现与加密货币采用率之间存在令人惊讶的脱节。
According to a report published on September 6 by the Consumer Finance Institute (CFI) of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, "The recent growth in the [crypto] market has not been matched by an increase in ownership among our survey respondents."
根据费城联邦储备银行消费者金融研究所 (CFI) 9 月 6 日发布的一份报告,“近期(加密货币)市场的增长并未与我们的调查受访者持有量的增加相匹配。”
To track the performance of the cryptocurrency market, the CFI used daily prices for Bitcoin as a proxy. The data shows that the market hit its lowest point during the crypto winter at the end of 2022. From January to October 2023, prices rebounded gradually, but then surged rapidly through March 2024. Since that peak, they have stayed at or near their highest levels in the past five years.
为了跟踪加密货币市场的表现,CFI 使用比特币的每日价格作为代理。数据显示,市场在 2022 年底的加密货币寒冬期间触及最低点。从 2023 年 1 月到 10 月,价格逐渐反弹,但随后到 2024 年 3 月迅速飙升。自该峰值以来,价格一直保持在或接近最高水平过去五年的水平。
Meanwhile, the CFI gathered data on cryptocurrency ownership through surveys conducted between January 2022 and July 2024. The findings show that crypto ownership declined during the 2022 bear market, with ownership rates dropping from 24.6% in January 2022 to 19.1% in October 2022.
与此同时,CFI 通过 2022 年 1 月至 2024 年 7 月期间进行的调查收集了有关加密货币所有权的数据。调查结果显示,加密货币所有权在 2022 年熊市期间有所下降,所有权率从 2022 年 1 月的 24.6% 降至 2022 年 10 月的 19.1%。
Despite a market recovery over the next 18 months, ownership rates didn't increase proportionally. By October 2023, only 17.1% of respondents owned cryptocurrency, and this figure fell further to 15.4% by January 2024.
尽管市场在接下来的 18 个月内有所复苏,但拥有率并没有相应增加。到 2023 年 10 月,只有 17.1% 的受访者拥有加密货币,到 2024 年 1 月,这一数字进一步下降至 15.4%。
The report also noted that there was no significant rise in ownership around Bitcoin's peak in March or the April halving event, with rates at 16.1% in April and decreasing to 14.7% by July.
该报告还指出,在 3 月份比特币峰值或 4 月份减半事件前后,比特币持有量并未出现显着上升,4 月份持有量为 16.1%,7 月份则降至 14.7%。
Bitcoin’s price compared to surveyed crypto ownership rates: Source: Federal Reserve Bank of PhiladelphiaThe current market situation does not seem favorable for most people. The Fear and Greed Index, which reflects market sentiment, is currently at 29 points. This indicates a bearish outlook, with many expecting further declines.
比特币的价格与调查的加密货币拥有率相比:来源:费城联邦储备银行当前的市场形势似乎对大多数人来说并不有利。反映市场情绪的恐惧与贪婪指数目前为 29 点。这表明前景悲观,许多人预计会进一步下跌。
The sharp drop from the recent all-time high of $74,000 to today’s level of $54,800 has caused significant fear among market participants. This anxiety extends to altcoins, which have experienced even more drastic declines. Arbitrum has fallen four times from its peak, Notcoin has also decreased by a factor of four, and Mantle has dropped threefold.
从最近的历史高点 74,000 美元急剧下跌至今天的 54,800 美元,引起了市场参与者的极大恐慌。这种焦虑也延伸到了山寨币上,山寨币经历了更剧烈的下跌。 Arbitrum 已从峰值下跌了四倍,Notcoin 也下跌了四倍,Mantle 下跌了三倍。
Federal Reserve researchers observed that this year’s price increases seem to be linked to a higher likelihood of respondents considering future crypto purchases. Interest in buying crypto declined during the 2022 crypto winter, falling from 18.8% to 10.6% of respondents. However, as the market recovered, interest surged, with 21.8% of respondents indicating they are likely to buy cryptocurrency by April 2024.
美联储研究人员观察到,今年的价格上涨似乎与受访者考虑未来购买加密货币的可能性更高有关。在 2022 年加密货币寒冬期间,受访者购买加密货币的兴趣从 18.8% 下降至 10.6%。然而,随着市场复苏,兴趣激增,21.8% 的受访者表示他们可能在 2024 年 4 月之前购买加密货币。
The Fed’s surveys, which were conducted via two online polls with 5,000 nationally representative participants, show that while the crypto market has surged nearly 150% since the start of 2023, ownership rates have not kept pace. In May, the Fed reported that approximately 18 million Americans owned or used cryptocurrency in 2023, a figure lower than Coinbase’s estimate of 52 million American crypto owners in September 2023.
美联储的调查是通过两项在线民意调查进行的,有 5,000 名全国代表参与者参与,调查显示,虽然自 2023 年初以来加密货币市场已飙升近 150%,但所有权率却没有跟上。 5 月,美联储报告称,2023 年约有 1800 万美国人拥有或使用加密货币,这一数字低于 Coinbase 在 2023 年 9 月估计的 5200 万美国加密货币所有者。
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