加密市场正在经历重大过渡阶段

ETH/BTC的比率刚刚达到了五年来的最低水平，这提出了一个关键问题：我们应该远离以太坊

The crypto market is currently in a major transition phase, with Bitcoin continuing its impressive rally and an enduring question hanging in the air: should we turn away from Ethereum in favor of more performing altcoins?

加密市场目前处于主要过渡阶段，比特币继续其令人印象深刻的集会和一个持久的问题悬挂在空中：我们是否应该远离以太坊而转向以太坊？

As BTC’s dominance over the market persists, some analysts suggest that an altcoin season could be on the horizon, while others maintain that Bitcoin’s supremacy could last longer than anticipated.

随着BTC在市场上的统治地位持续存在，一些分析师认为，Altcoin季节可能会出现，而其他分析师则认为比特币的至高无上的持续时间可能比预期的要长。

The ETH/BTC ratio at a low: an alarming historical signal?

低点的ETH/BTC比率：令人震惊的历史信号？

Since January 2025, many have eagerly awaited the moment when Ethereum would finally manage to surpass Bitcoin. However, to everyone’s surprise, the king crypto is still holding strong, while ETH seems to be struggling to keep up.

自2025年1月以来，许多人热切期待以太坊最终超越比特币的那一刻。但是，令所有人惊讶的是，国王加密货币仍然保持坚强，而ETH似乎在努力跟上。

As the market trends change rapidly, it’s crucial to stay informed with the latest updates.

随着市场趋势的迅速变化，保持最新更新的了解至关重要。

According to CoinMarketCap data, the ETH/BTC ratio has just reached its lowest level in five years, dropping to 0.022. In the past, such a decline has usually been followed by strong increases for Ethereum and altcoins. For instance, in 2021, we witnessed a remarkable surge in ETH, leading to a 1,650% increase in one year, while the top 100 altcoins, on average, also experienced a rise of 683%.

根据CoinMarketCap数据，ETH/BTC的比率刚刚达到了五年来的最低水平，下降到0.022。过去，以太坊和山寨币的这种下降通常会大大增加。例如，在2021年，我们目睹了ETH的惊人速度激增，一年中增长了1,650％，而前100名Altcoins平均也增长了683％。

However, it’s important to note that the current situation differs significantly from previous cycles. While Bitcoin is massively attracting institutional capital, which prefers BTC to ETH, Ethereum faces structural challenges.

但是，重要的是要注意，当前情况与以前的周期有显着不同。尽管比特币极大地吸引了BTC而不是ETH的机构资本，但以太坊面临着结构性的挑战。

Indeed, despite its strengths, such as smart contracts and a large developer community, Ethereum is being adopted by institutions at a slower pace than Bitcoin. Additionally, high transaction fees and increased competition from alternative blockchains, like Solana and Avalanche, continue to affect the ETH network.

确实，尽管具有智能合约和大型开发人员社区等优势，但以太坊的速度比比特币慢。此外，诸如Solana和Avalanche等替代区块链的高交易费用和增加的竞争继续影响ETH网络。

According to Mohsin Rizvi, an expert in the field, as long as Bitcoin dominates the market, we can expect Ethereum to continue suffering. In his view, this scenario will play out until the emergence of a new cycle, which seems rather distant at the moment.

该领域专家Mohsin Rizvi认为，只要比特币主导市场，我们就可以预期以太坊将继续苦难。在他看来，这种情况将揭晓，直到一个新循环的出现为止，目前这似乎相当遥远。

Bitcoin in force: a delayed altseason?

有效的比特币：延迟季节？

Traditionally, when Bitcoin reaches a peak, some capital shifts towards altcoins, initiating an altseason. But this time, indicators show that BTC maintains a crushing position.

传统上，当比特币达到顶峰时，一些资本向山寨币转移，启动了一个季节。但是这次，指标表明BTC保持碎屑位置。

According to CoinMarketCap data, yesterday, Bitcoin's market dominance was 61.2%, but today, it rose to 62.15%, further reinforcing its supremacy, a level not observed for a long time.

根据CoinMarketCap的数据，昨天，比特币的市场优势占61.2％，但今天，它上升到62.15％，进一步增强了其至高无上的地位，很长一段时间以来就没有观察到这一水平。

Moreover, the CoinMarketCap Altcoin Season Index shows only 13/100, meaning that less than 13% of the top 100 altcoins are outperforming Bitcoin over the last 90 days.

此外，CoinMarketCap Altcoin季节指数仅显示13/100，这意味着在过去的90天内，前100个Altcoins中不到13％的比特币要比比特币的表现。

Consequently, some analysts, like Hansolar, are rolling with the punches and prefer to remain grounded. In his opinion, Bitcoin's dominance could last all year, making any altseason rather uncertain.

因此，一些分析师（例如汉索尔）正在用打孔器滚动，并且更喜欢保持接地。在他看来，比特币的主导地位可能会持续一年，这使得任何一个季节都不确定。

Nevertheless, other outlooks suggest that the market could soon turn. For instance, in a recent analysis by crypto analyst Clone, we are informed that typically, when the ETH/BTC ratio falls below 0.03, it leads to an increase in capital gains for Bitcoin over Ethereum.

尽管如此，其他前景表明市场可能很快就会转变。例如，在加密分析师克隆人最近的分析中，我们得知，通常，当ETH/BTC比率低于0.03时，它会导致比特币比以太坊的资本收益增加。

However, in periods when the ratio drops to 0.02 or lower, it's usually followed by a strong reversal, prompting investors to reassess Ethereum's undervaluation.

但是，在比率下降到0.02或更低的时期，它通常是强烈的逆转，促使投资者重新评估以太坊的低估。

Can Ethereum rebound?

以太坊可以反弹吗？

Despite this bearish pressure, Ethereum has not said its last word. As we've seen in the past, the moments when ETH/BTC was at a low have always preceded bullish reversals.

尽管有这种看跌压力，但以太坊尚未说出最后一句话。正如我们过去所看到的那样，ETH/BTC处于低点的时刻一直是看涨的逆转。

The question now is whether this time will be any different. According to crypto analyst Clone, several conditions will need to be met for Ethereum to regain ground.

现在的问题是这个时间是否会有所不同。根据加密分析师克隆的说法，以太坊需要满足几种条件才能恢复地面。

For investors, the key question is therefore timing. Should we wait for an Ethereum rebound, or prioritize other altcoins right now? The answer will depend on market behavior in the coming weeks.

对于投资者而言，关键问题是时间安排。我们应该等待以太坊反弹，还是现在优先考虑其他Altcoins？答案将取决于未来几周的市场行为。

If Bitcoin continues its relentless rise, Ethereum may remain under pressure for a long time. But if history repeats itself, we might just see an altseason emerge where we least expect it.

如果比特币继续不断上升，以太坊可能会长期以来一直在压力下。但是，如果历史重演，我们可能只会看到我们最不期望的季前赛。

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